The title says everything. I don't want to get into much detail. Just want to point out the similarities and differences of the two time periods when after the market made a bottom. Note that it is not necessary to follow the exact same pattern as the fundamentals this time are very strong.
Similarities:
* The rise in 2015 stopped at +145.50% before pulling back. Currently (2019) we are also at +145.50% from the December (and cycle low). * The MA200 provided support to this strong rise on both occasions.
Differences:
* In 2015 the 1W candle that crossed above the MA100 managed to close below it. Last week's candle failed to close below the MA100. * In 2015 the following 1W candle after the MA100 break, was bearish and pulled back. The current weekly candle isn't.
It remains to be seen if the MA100 will later provide the support, as it did in 2015, necessary to create the bullish conditions for the next strong bullish sequence. After that test in 2015 BTC never touched the MA100 again until later deep into the bear market and the November 2018 final flush.
So what do you think? Will we test the MA100 again or we'll see it again on the next bear market? Share your thoughts in the comments section!
See a possible scenario on symmetric probabilities if Bitcoin starts 'attaching' the previous Resistance levels:
I think the market size and type of traders today is so very different from the past that it's fruitless to try to compare... when looking for movement similarities, there will be some that coincide very closely, and then get completely obliterated....
TradingShot
⋅
@BlurShines, You are absolutely right that the market dynamics are different and I mention this at the very beginning of my post. But comparisons can be added value to someone's trading strategy. It shouldn't define it.
Pro_Trader_HTBB
⋅
It is accelerated this time around and is ahead of where everyone thinks it is comparing to old charts. May 19 is when we will know where it is going imo.
TradingShot
⋅
@HowToBuyBitcoindotnetdotau, Indeed there is just too many bullish news at the moment.
Damians
⋅
What happened to your 30% drop idea, it never came. The rsi resistance never resisted the price also ....
TradingShot
⋅
@Damians, You answer your own question. It didn't realize. And that shows why it was important to have been brave and accumulate coins after the market bottomed during Jan and Feb. I always mentioned on those 30% drop ideas that my advice as a long term investor was to buy at the bottom (NEVER advised to short) with a strong portion of your portfolio and then add on every pull back for as long as the new bull market lasts. There will be pull backs and when they come I will be adding. There is no point in asking a question that you answer at the very same sentence just to make an Internet stranger look bad.
Damians
⋅
@TradingShot, your ideas are based on what happened on 2015. But we never are in the same river twice. The flow of energy is different always changing... The only thing that keeps the same is this , your idea was flawed before and it is flawed now ...
TradingShot
⋅
@Damians, My strategy was based on when the market bottom was and bought it. After that comes the accumulation/ distribution phase and based on that I posted some ideas of a POSSIBLE market movement. It didn't print out the same as 2015. And many more ideas that will follow may not. I am posting references to chart patterns I find. Nothing more. If you seek scapegoats of people to blame you are on the wrong page. Here we make technical discussions on trading patterns and not national geographic documentaries on river streams and cosmic energy flows. Please keep it serious.
Damians
⋅
@TradingShot, I just follow you as counter indicator
TradingShot
⋅
@Damians, For your own good I hope that is not true. You must have missed clear buy signals at the 3000s bottom.
Again, you are on a technical trading thread. Please keep the discussion serious as the other members here do.