We have been calling for a Bitcoin correction since highs in November of 2021 (red arrows on the chart). We even gave Fibonacci for areas of support, all of which were validated during the selloff. It seems that cryptocurrencies are becoming more sensitive to things like interest rates and inflation. The global markets have sharply corrected due to the Fed's increasingly more Hawkish rhetoric, and the crypto markets are no exception. They are in a tough position. Their task is to combat inflation with the only tools they have available. Despite the fact that the economy is still fragile, they seem to be gunning for 4 rate hikes in 2022, a decision which the markets are not taking lightly.
We have been highlighting 38K as the next major level for Bitcoin, garnered from our Fibonacci retracement levels. Subsequently, we have breached this level, and are currently in the vacuum zone between 29K and 38K. We do appear to be finidng some support, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI around 35K which is the upper bound of a congestion zone from July. However, we aren't seeing the kind of buy back we would expect from such bargain prices. From here, we may range a bit and attempt to establish footing. Expect a consolidation pattern like a flag or wedge to form before Bitcoin makes its next move.
Currenty levels seem to be critical to stop the selloff from hitting 29K. If they don't hold, this is our next target. The Kovach OBV is extremely bearish on the daily chart, and does not appear to be showing signs of leveling off. If the rout continues and we hit 29K, then the 0.236 Fibonacci from early 2021 suggests that 19K is the next target, which roughly coincides with 2017's high before the great crypto winter of 2018.
If we do manage to see some buying come through, then 38K and 40K will be significant barriers to break and we anticipate a lot of resistance here. BTC had been flirting with levels in the low 40K's for months, establishing solid technical levels in this neighborhood. If we are able to break these, then 44K is the next major milestone.
Funny a how (fast, far) change has people immediately flipping their thinking from one "incontestable truth" to it's opposite or something not even closely related, without even noticing how worthless many beliefs are at any point in time. Like flags flapping in the wind. Robert Prechter's Socionomics comes to mind, as does "perceptions are a reality, but a perceptual reality that doesn't even have to connect with other realities". I guess that's where your tracking of media really helps, quantguy? Is that what we human's are better at, following (fashion, gossip, mood) rather than seeing that we are fools looking for greater fools? I guess the other issue is whether NLP naturally leads to classes of (people, sources) who are consistently far better than others, and does that far better than most people can select the right experts? A recent paper shows good results from artfully using a simple MLP neural network to do Elliot Wave analysis.
quantguy
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@Bill_Howell, Very true. Humans are much more prone to group-think than we'd like to admit. That's why I include fundamentals, news and risk sentiment in my reports.