It is normal for Bitcoin traders to panic when the Digital Store of Value (as Bitcoin is often referred to) posts a significant decline. There will always be those to go as far as to call new bear cycles or even 0. Facts are facts and all of them still point out that Bitcoin remains at the start of a new Bull Cycle.
What has this sell-off produced? Simple. It is gradually re-balancing BTC back to is fair value after what has been a much more aggressive than expected start to the new Bull Cycle. This is what the Stock-to-Flow indicator is for (Blue line). This is a harmonization process that basically put BTC back to the Buy Zone (dashed green) of its historic Parabolic Channel. The 1W MA200 is always in Support and the Ichimoku Cloud is close to be squeezed to the point where the Bottom of this pull back is approaching.
There are good chances that this will be around $6500 based on the Supporting Line provided by the top of the previous time the Ichimoku was squeezed, similar to the 2015/ 2016 pattern.
Calling exact tops and bottoms on Bitcoin is difficult but all the above parameters offer a fairly good benchmark for long term traders and investors to work on.
After all there are numerous patterns that support the idea of a $6000 ish contact such as this idea from April 30th of the Bottom X 2 indicator:
or the Divergence and Convergence pattern behavior of Bitcoin's Market Cycles:
Would you agree that BTCUSD's current fair value is around the $6500? Please like, subscribe and share your comments, ideas and charts with me!
There's really no "Parabolic Buy Zone". This is a fantasy of the fanatical followers who buy crypto without regard to losses.
kardia
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@ReallyMe, there is some truth in what you have said. Especially within the XRP community. I am afraid CME and Bakkt are going to get us all stuck in a seemingly endless range, like gold and silver is. What that range will be, we don't know, but it could be far from what crypto enthusiasts/hodlers expect concerning the value of BTC, and it could potentially last for decades. It has been their goal from the start to "tame" BTC. It appears they have succeed in doing that.
TradingShot
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@kardia, Yes it "could"last for decades. But our job is to look at what has been happening now and in the past. And BTC's bullish structure is beyond any doubt. There are nu,erous examples of prominent traders and economists that pushed the exact same doubts as you when the price was at $10, 100, 1000 even recently at 3k.
xueq
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@TradingShot, CME was not involved in bitcoin back then. The facts now are the CME group has the most money in basically any market in the entire world. If they want to control bitcoin or ruin it they very well can. But they have to introduce volatility to make it happen. Theyd have to buy a large supply which they definitely don't have. The worst thing they can do imo is create the sideways crab market where bitcoin only moves sideways.
If bitcoin loses its volatility though maybe thats bullish for others coins like ETH. Though CME could just "tame" that as well.
kardia
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@xueq, that's correct. Things have changed. And because they now have control of this market, I don't see Bitcoin going very far.
Xueqq
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@kardia, I still am long. Bitcoin already is the hardest money. No point in not being exposed to it significantly. At the worst in 5 years it will be worth more than it is now
kardia
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@Xueqq, I have a feeling that most of the big shots who are talking about investing in BTC are not telling the truth. I believe they are just trying lure people in so they can dump on them at an opportune time. When it comes to money, it's hard to find people you can trust.
HRoark64
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@xueq, what happens to CME cash settled contracts if the price doesn't match Bakkt that has to be settled in BTC? I know the trading volume is tiny right now, but I think in due time Bakkt futures will be the cornerstone of honest price discovery and order sizes. That needs to be in place before big money can enter the market. Nobody is going to put pension or mutual fund money into a market whose price can be flash crashed or ran higher by some bullsh*t exchange in S. Korea or Hong Kong.