Bitcoin Daily Update (day 185)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

1 day - 3 day: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,500 -$7,650 | 3d - 1 week: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: Preparing to enter short, lined out four confirmations for entering / sidelines
Patterns: descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: $6,940 support appears to be breaking down and turning into resistance. Next support = $6,800
BTCUSDSHORTS: Has almost fully retraced while the price of Bitcoin’ has barely budged.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): +0.67% | bullish crossover did not amount to anything
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 MA = -1% & back on top of price | 128 = -5.56%
Volume: Has not exceeded MA throughout this squeeze.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,895 | 0.786 = $6,509
Candlestick analysis: 2 hanging men
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily and 12h cloud held as resistance. 12h cloud breakdown could provide an entry.
TD’ Sequential: G9 < G6, G7, & G8. If > then would be perfected. When 9 is lower than 7 then it will often lead to a new countdown to the upside.
Visible Range: Low volume node at $7,200 tells seems like a good spot for one last short squeeze.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -1% | 24h = +0.87% | 1w = +3.53% | 2w = +8.26% | 1m = -15.45%
Bollinger Bands: Weekly MA = $7,379 and should be strong resistance | Daily MA = $6,589 and is expected to get retested after pulling back from top band.
Trendline: Connected August 22nd to August 26th and it was violated yesterday
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: DOWN = $6,212 | UP = $8,312
On Balance Volume: Weekly just created a higher high for a bull div’
ADX: ADX is at a major level of support which indicates that major volatility is on the horizon
Chaikin Money Flow: Will it get rejected at 0.05 or provide a buy signal?
RSI (30 setting): W = 49.73 | D = 50.30 | weekly crossing + CMF' breaking through 0.05 would be significant
Stoch: Pulling back on daily, plenty of room to go on 3d

Summary: Am waiting patiently to see if we get one last squeeze to $7,200 which would put us at a major resistance cluster. If that happens then I would expect it to occur in the next 12-24 hours. CBOE' options will get covered today and after that demand is satisfied I expect a breakdown to follow. If the price of Bitcoin’ is > $6,000 on Tuesday then I will be very surprised. As I am writing this ETH:BTC appears to be breaking down 0.04. Take a look at how hard it fell in December 2017 when it last broke down that support. ETH:USD is also on the verge of breaking down it's bear flag with a $115 target. My sights are set on opening large shorts on each.

“Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes” -Col William Prescott
Right on again. I highly appreciate your content.
+1 Reply
Straight to the point analysis, very refreshing thank you :-)
+1 Reply
Good analysis, as always. You are the only BTC charting chap that I follow, for your in depth analysis. Keep it up.
+1 Reply
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