With this last jump the buyers kept the big alive. I also showed it when i posted my new analysis, but in my view the 4500/4600 should have been reached a few days ago. Instead the right shoulder stopped at 4400. Make no mistake, this is also a sign of weakness. It doesn't mean it can't happen, but those chances are much smaller than a normal horizontal . Most of you probably remember the of June/July where we had a clear horizontal neckline at 6800.
With the break of 4200 we have gotten higher than i first expected we would do, but as we reached to the 4260 we have already dropped to 4120 again. At the moment the bulls are finding support from this level and are trying to move up again.
On the higher time frame, with today's rally, the bulls have kept the most certainly still alive. This is because of a good fast rally, showing some conviction. I did not even give it a chance yesterday, but now those chances will become 50/50 if we can get above the 4200/4210 again.
Alts are showing similar pictures as Bitcoin' does, but a few a bit weaker even. So nothing obvious on that side. For me it's simple now:
- If we break the 4210ish i might be looking up for the short term, because i think a break of 4600 is needed before i even start to think this short term bear trend is over already.
- If we break the 4120/4100, my original plan is probably still in play and we can make another wave down.
Bigger picture, even if we drop , i think the 3500/3600 won't be an easy one to break. Might even be a chance it will become the new 6K level for a while. view, the setup is here for a big rally. We have a at 3500 and so far have been moving up and the from the left chart could still be in play, which can push the price even higher. If this would happen, there is still a chance for a big V shape low. But that would mean this has to play out with some conviction. meaning the target around should be reached within a few days. Getting above the 5000 should happen withing 2/3 days max.
I had a game plan in my mind, that was a rally towards 4150ish as a max. Since we broke it and moved up even more, there might be a chance i need to reconsider a new bigger picture game plan. So if we break the 4200 and the 4300, i will probably just take a day off to let things play out first so i can get back in again without being biased. This is something i always do, when a game plan fails, i simply take a brake (or trade other assets). I would certainly not mind at all after these hectic few weeks. It's also one my benefits, i don't have a long term attachment to crypto, so i don't mind missing out on a wave.
At the moment it's moving inside a small upwards channel, so i think we can get an answer any minute now.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
One thing to keep in mind, if we break up, but only get slightly above the 4250, so lets say around 4300/30, that won't be good. We should see a bigger rally, that bulls show more force
It's actually the same thought i have, with the failing inverse H&S, but his road map was much clearer. Worth to have a look
This is his post and i think it deserves a like :)
"One thing to keep in mind, if we break up, but only get slightly above the 4250, so lets say around 4300/30, that won't be good. We should see a bigger rally, that bulls show more force"
This shows once again that volume is by far the most important indicator and the reason why it's the only indicator i use.
Still no clear signs to go on. Seems like we are inside a valid channel now. So a break of this one could give more answers. Problem now is, all the levels get broken on the lower time frames, so can't spot an impulse wave with the price action of this weekend.
Since we made those fake attempts to break up, my view is till bearish at the moment. A break of this channel could change it, but i think it will be a fake break out even if that happens. 4300 is a very clear level now to watch. If we get above that level, we could see another rally towards the 4500/4600.
I will try to post a new analysis later today.
4050 seems like a solid support level now. If that breaks, will probably test the 3900 level again. I do have one play in mind, that is if we start to move up towards 4300 and rally slows down again, i might short it there. For now, this price action is completely random, as shown above it's just bots trading. Which means low retail volume, which means TA becomes a bit useless, Only thing that can work is zooming out.
Ask your self.
Is there any good news?
Look on the 12 hrs chart
We are bearish.
Why keep dreaming about a bullrun
Most of the bullrun are only short.
Whale trying to squeeze off before going to the deepest level of 3k.
I suggest to all do not buy btc until either a 3200 lvl comes or a good news from SEC. Otherwise you will lose your money or hodl forever.