botje11

Bitcoin H&S versus IH&S, Bears Already Gone?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In my previous analysis i talked about that failing to reach the 4600ish target would be a sign of weakness and that we would probably make a decent drop . Bulls were so weak they were not even able to complete the bearish wedge and instead an H&S was formed. A big drop was no surprise because of that. I had the target set around 3800 (and a bit) but we did not reach it completely, this shows there were some eager bulls more than ready to get in. So this shows there is some activity from the buyers side. We made a rally to 4150 as the double bottom i showed at the 3860. Now instead of getting resistance we made another jump up towards the 4260.

With this last jump the buyers kept the big inverse H&S alive. I also showed it when i posted my new analysis, but in my view the 4500/4600 should have been reached a few days ago. Instead the right shoulder stopped at 4400. Make no mistake, this is also a sign of weakness. It doesn't mean it can't happen, but those chances are much smaller than a normal horizontal inverse H&S . Most of you probably remember the inverse H&S of June/July where we had a clear horizontal neckline at 6800.

With the break of 4200 we have gotten higher than i first expected we would do, but as we reached to the 4260 we have already dropped to 4120 again. At the moment the bulls are finding support from this level and are trying to move up again.
On the higher time frame, with today's rally, the bulls have kept the inverse H&S most certainly still alive. This is because of a good fast rally, showing some conviction. I did not even give it a chance yesterday, but now those chances will become 50/50 if we can get above the 4200/4210 again.

Alts are showing similar pictures as Bitcoin' does, but a few a bit weaker even. So nothing obvious on that side. For me it's simple now:

- If we break the 4210ish i might be looking up for the short term, because i think a break of 4600 is needed before i even start to think this short term bear trend is over already.
- If we break the 4120/4100, my original plan is probably still in play and we can make another wave down.

Bigger picture, even if we drop , i think the 3500/3600 support zone won't be an easy one to break. Might even be a chance it will become the new 6K level for a while. Bullish view, the setup is here for a big rally. We have a double bottom at 3500 and so far have been moving up and the inverse H&S from the left chart could still be in play, which can push the price even higher. If this would happen, there is still a chance for a big V shape low. But that would mean this inverse H&S has to play out with some conviction. meaning the target around should be reached within a few days. Getting above the 5000 should happen withing 2/3 days max.

I had a game plan in my mind, that was a rally towards 4150ish as a max. Since we broke it and moved up even more, there might be a chance i need to reconsider a new bigger picture game plan. So if we break the 4200 and the 4300, i will probably just take a day off to let things play out first so i can get back in again without being biased. This is something i always do, when a game plan fails, i simply take a brake (or trade other assets). I would certainly not mind at all after these hectic few weeks. It's also one my benefits, i don't have a long term attachment to crypto, so i don't mind missing out on a wave.
At the moment it's moving inside a small upwards channel, so i think we can get an answer any minute now.


Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)


Previous analysis.
Dec 01
Comment: While slowly moving up all of a sudden a quick drop close to the neckline again. Very similar to 2 days ago, the last wave down of the right shoulder of that other H&S. We are still above the neckline, but when it breaks and volume increases, we could see a quick drop to 4000ish.

Dec 01
Comment: The neckline is still holding, 4130 seems to be a level where buyers keep getting in. So this H&S might be failing because of this. Seems the bears are not strong enough. If we move up again and break the 4190, the bullish version become more likely.

One thing to keep in mind, if we break up, but only get slightly above the 4250, so lets say around 4300/30, that won't be good. We should see a bigger rally, that bulls show more force

Dec 02
Comment: I posted the wrong chart, just seeing it. This is a potential fractal a follower of mine told me about. So far working out almost perfect.
It's actually the same thought i have, with the failing inverse H&S, but his road map was much clearer. Worth to have a look

This is his post and i think it deserves a like :)

Dec 02
Comment: Alts are also not looking that great, also seems to show failing inverse H&S patterns. It's not over yet, because if they can stay above yesterday's low and make a higher low, it could get turned into a ascending triangle.

Dec 02
Comment: As i mentioned yesterday:

"One thing to keep in mind, if we break up, but only get slightly above the 4250, so lets say around 4300/30, that won't be good. We should see a bigger rally, that bulls show more force"

This shows once again that volume is by far the most important indicator and the reason why it's the only indicator i use.
Still no clear signs to go on. Seems like we are inside a valid channel now. So a break of this one could give more answers. Problem now is, all the levels get broken on the lower time frames, so can't spot an impulse wave with the price action of this weekend.

Since we made those fake attempts to break up, my view is till bearish at the moment. A break of this channel could change it, but i think it will be a fake break out even if that happens. 4300 is a very clear level now to watch. If we get above that level, we could see another rally towards the 4500/4600.

I will try to post a new analysis later today.

Dec 02
Comment: Looks like the Bitfinex bulls are trying to push the price up. The channel already broke at finex but not at other exchanges. So if we don't see another push up withing a few minutes we will probably drop back down in the channel again. Still sideways movement but it does seem like the 4050 level is becoming a support zone now.

Dec 02
Comment: Bots in action

Dec 02
Comment: Really?

Dec 02
Comment: PingPong moves with a market being as indecisive as it can be on this time frame. We had a break of that channel, went back in and up again. So nu much value there.

4050 seems like a solid support level now. If that breaks, will probably test the 3900 level again. I do have one play in mind, that is if we start to move up towards 4300 and rally slows down again, i might short it there. For now, this price action is completely random, as shown above it's just bots trading. Which means low retail volume, which means TA becomes a bit useless, Only thing that can work is zooming out.

Dec 02
Comment: Unless we see a move above that trendline again, it could be this sideways action is over already and we can see some real movement again. So unless we see some real movement here and a break of the 4050ish support level, this sideways action can continue

Dec 02
Comment: Again seeing rejection from this resistance. The 4050 has formed quite the support level. Even after we broke that support line from the previous update, looked like we would drop but each time price was bought up again. I don't know what to make of this, these sideways movements are mostly noise. But if we drop below the 4100 withing half an hour, i think we will continue down again. If we do break this red zone, we could see an attack of the 4300 level.

Dec 02
Comment: So we got rejection once again and have dropped. No big dumping yet and the same levels are holding again so far. But my general view is still bearish. Only a break of 4300 will change that. The 4200ish is actually also a bullish level to break now

Dec 02
Comment: Update on the ETP pump&dump, worth the read.

Dec 02
Comment: The bounces seem to fail this time, so think we might get a break now.

Dec 02
Comment: I saw some high volume dumping and that support was breaking as well so it looked like an acceleration was coming. But seems there is still buying support here. Calling it a day, hopefully this sideways action is over by tomorrow. I will make an new analysis tomorrow.
Dec 03
Comment: So finally we dropped and are done with the weekend sideways show. Starting to look like the same move we had a few days ago, but i don't think we will see a Bart move up again this time. As long as we don't take a peak above 4000ish in the meantime, i am quite sure of that. Unless this bear flag takes a lot of time, the chances will increase. I will make my new analysis now

Dec 03
Comment: Zoom in of the Bart move of a few days ago and the current move. We can see an attempt to make a small bull flag here. I don't think it will succeed but would be stupid to simply ignore it.

Dec 03
Comment: New Bitcoin analysis:

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If you know Elliott Wave, then you know what is the real H&S pattern, because not every H&S is the real H&S, so we really doubt in this inverted H&S pattern, because of an intraday corrective structure. Just our opinion!
Elliott Wave is a great tool, if you use the right approach!
Reply
A+ analysis, I see the same scenario happening.
Reply
botje11 achal017
@achal017, Thank you :)
Reply
Countertrade the crowd that thinks there is a break out for more down:

Reply
xrayer Counter
@Counter, you are the crowd thinking there will be a break up.
+1 Reply
@xrayer, also counter trading is stupid. Just do your own analysis and do what you think is best.
+1 Reply
Do you guys want to know where btc is goin?
Ask your self.
Is there any good news?
Look on the 12 hrs chart
We are bearish.
Why keep dreaming about a bullrun

Most of the bullrun are only short.
Whale trying to squeeze off before going to the deepest level of 3k.

I suggest to all do not buy btc until either a 3200 lvl comes or a good news from SEC. Otherwise you will lose your money or hodl forever.
+6 Reply
BTCUSD H1 Complex correction up. Checkout the idea detail's and update's for the complete picture.
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