BTCUSD is having a time right now, but I've been calling for a bottom sub 6k end of April / early May for months.
I've been counting these waves down, and if this last 5 work out as planned that bottom should come in right on time.
Also, LOOK OUT FOR APRIL DATES:
- US TAX DAY ( APRIL 17th this year ) - BTC CME FUTURES EXPIRATION MARCH 29TH - March 29th expiration had a dip starting on the 25th with a massive push down on the 29th.
I would not be surprised if we end in a truncation or a long flat or both.
This is me trying to plot out what I'm seeing. Let me know what you think!
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CME FUTURES EXP APRIL 29TH*
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Tweaking the timelines. Levels haven't changed much. The sideways move took longer than I expected.
I am still calling for a BLOODY AF April with US Taxes and CME Future expiration back-to-back.
If we plunge under my 6k line, look for panic and that line to be new resistance.
If you've paid attention to how we are moving along the 2014 BTCUSD bear market, but at a much fast er clip, we could see another similar retracement percentage ending around the 3k range.
This is not beyond the realm of possibility. This time last year, BTC was at the mid-900s. The bubble burst and the parabola broke.
Statistically, if a macro parabola breaks, we can expect an 80% retracement, +/- 10%. 80% gives us 4k.
If money floods out through to the 29th, expect panic. If we cross that line, I'll wait and look to get back in as the 6hr/12hr/D 55ema starts to show support again.
THE BRIGHT SIDE: Many of us are VERY new to this space. Volatility presents a ton of opportunity, and trial by fire is THE BEST TEACHER. This will show us if we're willing to stick it out, learn at the worst of times, and reap the rewards later on.
Time to earn our stripes.
Not trading this choppy mess. Just learning and protecting my assets. Take this time to research on BTC past movements as well as Alt strategy.