Kazonomics

Scenarios for BITCOIN BTC going into fall

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1220 19 15
Sentiments and fundamentals can change going forward nothing is for certain in the regulatory landscape. Increased regulation is obviously coming our way. As we draw nearer to the launch of a Bitcoin ETF I would expect to see some more guidance by September 2014 in capital markets & International Money Laundering Regs applied to digital currency which will facilitate more commercial adoption and use.

Knowing all this, biases are a killer in markets and we must remain objective and flexible with regard to price. As cliche as it sounds the price is always right and it is the only thing that will pay you in the end. Trigger fundamentally but enter your trade technically.

I have laid out 4 objective possibilities trade with the price structure not against it and have a stop out admit when your are wrong move on and make BTC! Good look out there
Very nice outlook, specially agree with the remarks about the importance of unbiased analysis, both fundamental and technical.
+2 Reply
LastBattle
2 years ago
cool. thanks
+1 Reply
ShortThePlanet
2 years ago
nice worms :D
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ItisCalvin
2 years ago
I made a post on Reddit that had the same train of thoughts as this one. I was thinking that instead of having bubble happen in a week that it would be a more slow and gentle one that would occur farther then ever from the last ones.

+1 Reply
grahvity
2 years ago
More than any other long-term chart, I want to click 'Load New Bars' on this one so badly. Your message is much appreciated.
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Kilgore
2 years ago
The yellow one looks good to me, at least up to the $700. As always, thanks for sharing
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johnrfraser
2 years ago
The Dell news is surely huge.
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ItisCalvin johnrfraser
2 years ago
Big, but it is like Amazon big. Mostly it won't effect the price near term drastically. Gentle up swing for sure.
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johnrfraser ItisCalvin
2 years ago
Thanks Itiscalvin. To me there is something about the 'crypto' nature of the product making it more suited to crypto payment...and on the scale of Dell, one of the biggest yet.
When I left work at 4.30 (we bail early on Fridays ;-) 623 seemed okay going into a weekend when lately, weekends have been fairly good at continuing the Friday trend...I'd no expectation of 626 Finex and 630 Bitstamp 4 hours later...this is surely the Dell news no?
I guess though, 6 points fits the description of gentle upswing after all...you're right! :-)
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MoonTrader ItisCalvin
2 years ago
Good news never seems to have an immediate effect like bad news sometimes does. It just adds "hitpoints" to the market, making it stronger and ensuring a gentle rise.
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ItisCalvin MoonTrader
2 years ago
It always seems like people are ready to sell/short more often then buy in. This applies to many other markets. I have seen Yahoo crash in after market hours due to bad news.

You are correct in that good news doesn't always immediately effect the markets like bad news does.
+1 Reply
Perfectly laid and iterated scenarios, imo. Will be excited to watch this play out.
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CrazyC_BTC
2 years ago
awesome it going up or its going down. nice
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Path 1 and 1a are now eliminated as possibilities. Now only 2 or 2a remain. Lower time frames have allowed an easy short of this break down from the wedge unless the short term trend fails and we see 2a would remain short with stops in place
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Path 2 is our winner the most bearish path and gauging by sentiment the least expect of the 4
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ItisCalvin Kazonomics
2 years ago
I was looking at my old Reddit posts sharing some quotes elsewhere that had this chart in it. Fun! Path two was super close.
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Kilgore Kazonomics
2 years ago
Hi Kazonomics,

could you say some words about your thoughts after hitting the lower bound of the green horizontal channel pls? Do you have an update of the situation?
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Kazonomics PRO Kilgore
2 years ago
BTC BULL BEAR SCENARIOS Supplement on BITSTAMP
+2 Reply
Kazonomics PRO Kilgore
2 years ago
Here you go just for you I made an update!! Its in a critical position outside of the channel here. From here let it finish the mini consolidation its doing down on the 1 hour and break this wedge formation. If it takes out the low would expect panic free fall. Wouldn't be looking for any longs till the 450's were recovered and stabilized.
+2 Reply
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