Sentiments and fundamentals can change going forward nothing is for certain in the regulatory landscape. Increased regulation is obviously coming our way. As we draw nearer to the launch of a Bitcoin ETF I would expect to see some more guidance by September 2014 in capital markets & International Money Laundering Regs applied to digital currency which will facilitate more commercial adoption and use.
Knowing all this, biases are a killer in markets and we must remain objective and flexible with regard to price. As cliche as it sounds the price is always right and it is the only thing that will pay you in the end. Trigger fundamentally but enter your trade technically.
I have laid out 4 objective possibilities trade with the price structure not against it and have a stop out admit when your are wrong move on and make BTC! Good look out there
Comments
Kazonomics
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Path 2 is our winner the most bearish path and gauging by sentiment the least expect of the 4
ItisCalvin
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I was looking at my old Reddit posts sharing some quotes elsewhere that had this chart in it. Fun! Path two was super close.
Kilgore
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Hi Kazonomics,
could you say some words about your thoughts after hitting the lower bound of the green horizontal channel pls? Do you have an update of the situation?
Here you go just for you I made an update!! Its in a critical position outside of the channel here. From here let it finish the mini consolidation its doing down on the 1 hour and break this wedge formation. If it takes out the low would expect panic free fall. Wouldn't be looking for any longs till the 450's were recovered and stabilized.
IvanLabrie
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Very nice outlook, specially agree with the remarks about the importance of unbiased analysis, both fundamental and technical.
Kazonomics
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Path 1 and 1a are now eliminated as possibilities. Now only 2 or 2a remain. Lower time frames have allowed an easy short of this break down from the wedge unless the short term trend fails and we see 2a would remain short with stops in place
BuyOnPurple
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Perfectly laid and iterated scenarios, imo. Will be excited to watch this play out.
johnrfraser
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The Dell news is surely huge.
ItisCalvin
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Big, but it is like Amazon big. Mostly it won't effect the price near term drastically. Gentle up swing for sure.