BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Zoom out to fix the scales (This is what happens for log scales...)

Here we go.

There are many similarities between the market crash in 2014 from $1000 to $200 and the one we are currently experienced. With this chart I'm going to point out some of the similarities between the two, and then go over what I'm looking for in the rest of the remaining period to confirm what I believe to be the case.

First and foremost, I want to point out the trend line from the peak of both ($1k and $20k). Both have the double touch on peak as highlighted by the yellow ellipses. On top of that, they both have almost exactly the same trend line angle. We can see the double touch in 2014, with the second touch setting the precedent for the bottom. We have just seen the second touch in the 2018 fractal , indicating that 3400 could possibly be the bottom (although intuitively I feel like there's more room to fall). One of the most important things to note, is distance from all time, with us hitting 82% in 2018 and 83% in 2014, and in other similar market crashes, we have seen similar such percentages.

Time periods are also incredible interesting and they give an insight into market psychology.We can see the time inbetween the two peak touches on the trend line is the same, both at the peak, and the two touches on the trend line before we get to the blue box (98 days). This is is a remarkably similar time frame.

On top of this, the MACD is also extraordinarily similar. It is zoomed out on the graph but if you go to the weekly chart and observe it from the 2014 fractal , you can see the bottom crossover and the rollover to crossover again before movement to the upside. In 2018 we have just seen the bottom crossover and we are in the process of rolling over again, before potentially moving to the upside in the months/year to come.

Looking to the future. There were 210 days which separated the first bottom at ~$200 and the second bottom at the same price. The double bottom feature is common in these types of scenarios, and it is the key feature I will be looking out for to confirm my suspicions that we're consolidating at the bottom. On top of this, I've highlighted the possible range in 2018 for the blue box (63%), and I expect us to retest this area (5200-5400) a number of times as well as testing 3600-3800. After this, we saw an increase by 11,000% which would take bitcoin from its current price to around ~$50,000 a good price target if a bull market ever returns.

Overall, there are a remarkable number of similarities between these two fractals, and I will be keeping a very close eye on how the next few few months plays out. Looking for, the retest of 5200, and the retest of 3400 to confirm the double bottom ...