BITCOIN Channel Up or Log Curve? Which will prevail long-term?

Two weeks ago I made a case about how Bitcoin's short-term trend was depended on which Channel pattern of the following would prevail, the Channel Up or Channel Down:


The price action emphatically showed that the Channel Up prevailed as BTC held the Higher Lows trend-line as a Support and bounced exactly on it. On today's analysis, I am making a case on a new Channel Up this time on the (very) long-term and how possible it is that it prevails over Bitcoin's historic Logarithmic Curve/ Channel

** Channel Up vs Logarithmic Curve **
As you see on the main chart, since the November 2013 High, BTC has formed a Channel Up, which has held both its Higher Highs (peaks of Cycles) and Higher Lows (bottoms of Cycles). Before that though, the price started trading on a Logarithmic Curve (the only pattern that could 'catch' Bitcoin's immense growth in its early years). Notice how the April 2021 All Time High (ATH) reached and got rejected exactly on the top of the Logarithmic Curve. Does that mean that this will prevail over the Channel Up and BTC already has peak and entered a new Bear Cycle. Until broken to the upside, it seems like it, but there is a dynamic that suggests otherwise and that has to do with the Fibonacci extensions.

** Fibonacci extensions. Cyclical and All Time **
As shown on the chart, the Top of the 2013 Cycle was just below the 2.382 Fibonacci Extension, so was the Top of the 2017 Cycle (all measured from the Top-Bottom of the previous Cycle. In fact, if we take only one Top-Bottom measure from the 2011 Cycle, we will see that the 2013 and 2017 Cycle Peaks have been just under the 2.383 and 3.383 Fibonacci extensions. The next (4.382) is also very close to the 2.383 Fib extension of the 2018 Cycle. I call this metric "the All Time Fibonacci extensions" and I've published an idea about those a few months back.

** Conclusion **
Naturally, if the Logarithmic Curve breaks to the upside, that would mean that the Channel Up prevails but with the issue in question being what's more likely to happen, in my opinion there are more probabilities for the Channel Up, due to the edge given by the All Time Fibonacci extensions. So the argument a long-term investor who is already in the market and is looking for the next long-term buy is either buy once the Log Curve breaks or on the next contact with the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). In either case a realistic target can be within the $200k - $300k range (i.e. bottom band slightly below the 2.382 Cyclical Fib ext and upper band slightly above the 4.382 All Time Fib ext).




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