With the 'super blood wolf moon' tonight, I decided to take a dive into whether or not there was any pattern to be found between lunar and solar eclipses and bitcoin .
Chart Key
Solar Eclipses from strongest to weakest; Total: bright yellow Annular/hybrid: light yellow Partial: burnt ochre
Lunar Eclipses from strongest to weakest; Total: red-pink Partial: light pink Penumbral: light grey
Patterns noticed;
1) There is a cyclic action of sets of eclipses that alternates between 2 cycle types roughly every 2 years (slightly less), with a few distinct properties each. Solar cycles begin with a solar eclipse followed by a paired lunar eclipse, end with a solar eclipse preceded by a paired lunar eclipse, and contain every weak (non-total) lunar eclipse. Lunar cycles similarly begin with a lunar eclipse followed by a paired solar eclipse, end with a lunar eclipse preceded by a paired solar eclipse, and contain every total (blood moon) lunar eclipse.
2) As of tonight, Bitcoin has lived through the entirety of 4 of these cycles - the '12/'13 solar cycle, the '14/15 lunar cycle, the '16/'17 solar cycle, and now the 2018 lunar cycle. So far, both solar cycles contained the lion's share of both of Bitcoin's major bull markets to date, and both lunar cycles have borne the brunt of both of Bitcoin's major bear markets to date.
3) In the roughly 6 month interem between each of these cycles ( Bitcoin has experienced 4 of these interems and is entering a 5th now) Bitcoin experienced strong price appreciation in the first part, then a partial correction in the final part - of every one.
4) Most eclipses are paired with another of the opposite type - one solar with one lunar, always separated by a handful of days. There are, however, rare occurences of triple eclipse pairs - so far BTC had one in April 2013 and one in July 2018. The '18 one is vastly less pronounced, but it is notable that so far both triple eclipses have seen bitcoin experience a sharp rise approaching the triple eclipse, and a sharp fall afterwards.
5) Total solar eclipses have much less of a tangible pattern than do total lunar eclipses, appearing in both solar cycles and lunar cycles. So far however, 0 of the 5 total solar eclipses Bitcoin has lived through have seen it depreciate in price in the 5.5 months or so between the total solar eclipse and the next solar eclipse - 4 times it gained value, and one time it remained flat.
These are just potential patterns I've noticed so far - be mindful of the Rule of Three; "A pattern can be called a pattern only if it has been applied to a real world solution at least three times." So far, Bitcoin has only experienced 2 bull markets, 2 bear markets, 2 solar cycles, 2 lunar cycles. At 2 times, a pattern can be hypothesized, but it is not complete until it experiences its 3rd.
With that said, my hypothesis (especially when combined with other data points, such as the fact that our current bear cycle is exactly the length of the previous bear cycle as of this week, that we have broken just below the .786 fib retracement of the previous bull run just like we did at the very end of the 2014 bear, and some very in depth analysis of bitcoin transactions showing that there is a regular cycle of bitcoin holders that are currently well into the hold and accumulate phase of the cycle, research done by delphi digital ) is, very cautiously, that we are today at the end of the 2018 bear cycle, have found our low, and are in for a full 2 years of bull market.
Please chime in if you notice any other potential patterns here!
Thanks...very well put together. could you update and post again with any new thoughts or ideas?
saudstunts
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it seems we will be going to Bear market at time I am commenting This, btw Thanks for this great analysis
calumon
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you might be onto something. The solar cycle has to come at some point.
And that comment cracked me up haha. Continue your great work
bokeb
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@calumon, thanks! The way I've plotted it, the next solar cycle starts in July of this year with a total solar eclipse. We are now currently between cycles until then. Scroll right and you can see, I've plotted future eclipses out for a decade or so.
calumon
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@bokeb, so you are saying that we should sell around June 2028 as after that a longer period of Lunar cycle comes?
bokeb
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@calumon, no, the 2029 lunar cycle looks to be another short 1.5 year one like we just had in 2018. You can see the beginning of the next solar cycle starting in 2030, but that's where I stopped plotting.
I mean, I'm not giving this 100% credence, but this potential pattern is suggesting that buying the end of each lunar cycle and selling shortly after then end of each solar cycle would see you hit pretty close to the yearly highs and lows.