Price has managed to hold it's own quite nicely right at the resistance level. So for now, I am eyeing a possible entry scenario for Bitcoin. For this analysis however, the entry is only CONDITIONAL, and will ONLY be valid if a few CRITERIA are met.
Criteria for entry are as follows:
- Bitcoin needs to hold it's own and then break the side-wards resistance level and come back to test it later as a support.
- It stays above the side-wards resistance. Price needs to stay above here because this is the only real bullish indicator at present. Had price break this level, an entry long would be INVALID, until we retest the support zone again.
- Price hits the side-wards resistance and uses it as a support before a long can be entered. If price fails to do this, there is NO entry here.
If either of the above conditions fail, there is NO entry scenario. This is merely a scenario that could play out had price continue to remain stable. I am eager to get in also, but only at the right time, with the right probabilities on my side :-)
Where do YOU think price is headed? Leave a comment with a chart and let's share our thoughts!
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A lot of people have said "Tom, why use Bitfinex chart, it makes your analysis invalid" No, no, no, it doesn't. Like I said 12 times before this comment, whichever chart I use, my analysis is still VALID.
I'm sure they were mostly trolls, but maybe sincere viewers saw their comments and got confused. See all quotes on different exchanges below for verification :-)
What worries me is that the picture is rather different for BTC vs actual USD:
TomProTrader
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@znog, not above resistance yet so doesn’t make a difference which exchange or quote you’re using.
znog
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@TomProTrader, ok... I see your point: none of the pairs have clearly broken to the upside yet. So no decision has been taken.
patilan
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I don't know why you're using Bitfines?!
There are some shady activities involving USDT going on there ...
TomProTrader
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@patilan, Not sure if you realise but it doesn't matter. The spread is tiny...
TheDatapunk
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@TomProTrader, the spread is 300 USD, or 4%. If that's tiny...
TomProTrader
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@TheDatapunk, no, from a technical standpoint the analysis would be the same since resistance not broken...
BTC_SA
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@TomProTrader, It won't be the same if the Bitfinex price goes up say $200 from here (and Tether remains at 95c). In real USD BTC would still be below the long term trendline but your chart and analysis will show a breakout above.
So from a technical standpoint your chart and analysis does not make sense. That is what everyone is pointing out.
TomProTrader
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@BTC_SA, So basically whatever chart/exchange I use to post, I'm going to end up wrong anyway?
Lol, I think you'll just have to deal with that one.
BTC_SA
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@TomProTrader, No. Bitstamp BTC price is in real USD so that should still work fine for analysis. Any BTC price on Bitfinex can't be compared to prices in the past anymore with the Tether price moving around.
There's big issues with Tether right now. It's holding at 95c for the 3rd day in a row. If Tether devalues more, the Bitfinex price is going to go up again but this time the other exchanges won't be fooled into thinking its' a bullish move. If Tether goes back to $1 then the Bitfinex BTC price is going to go down to around $6400 and be in line with real USD exchanges.
I posted this elsewhere:
If anyone was not concerned/aware of the issue, I think this will help realize the seriousness. The Tether devaluations in the past were smaller and didn't last this long. So we're in for something big. Each time in the past BTC dumped afterwards and Tether didn't move as much as it's doing now. The Tether volume has also been massive this week, higher daily volume vs the whole year.
There's lots of people still posting charts on Tradingview based on Bitfinex and thinking BTC is bullish and broke out of the downtrend for a bit. It's all just Tether devaluation and people FOMO buying on other exchanges the other day thinking that BTC was breaking upwards. Bitfinex only went up because Tether price dropped to 85c and since it shows it's value in Tether and not USD. $7788 x 0.85 = $6620. That was the peak price in real USD that BTC reached on Bitfinex. Doesn't look so great a pump now but not many people seem to realize this.