Bitstamp has one of the longest weekly charts out there which really helps with this analysis. Going back to 2013, we can see that BTC maintained its price action within the ascending green channel. However in 2023 Bitcoin not only broke down out of that channel, but it had the first weekly Death Cross in its history! Even after this run to 38k, Bitcoin's 50MA has yet to reclaim its position over the 200MA or back above channel support. I indicated all the times this bottom support channel was tested both as support and now as resistance. I think all of this evidence suggests that Bitcoin may be headed to much lower levels than traders expect.
I know I am one of the few with such a bearish outlook on Bitcoin when it is up more than 100% on the year. I don't even think that $42-43k is out of the picture. But over all, I think until we reclaim position back in the green channel and get the coveted Golden Cross, we have to maintain a bearish narrative. Remember it's not what you make, but what you keep. Trade carefully my friends!