DrJLT
Long

BTC to remain bullish, Alts not so much

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I always hold the belief that at the beginning of a market cycle investors are more cautious and as a result solid assets will appreciate while speculative ones will lag behind. Before, I thought at a range of "blue chip" alts could also qualify as "solid assets". At this point, it appears that perhaps only XMR & to lesser extent NEO & ETH might qualify.

BTC is still the king, and I expect its dominance in market cap to reach 50+% by April.

Right now, we're still in an upward channel after breaking out of the inverted H&S a week ago.

Some people on this site have connected two extreme points on a chart & suggested that there's strong resistance there, but a channel isn't one line connecting two extremities. BTC already broke out of the downward channel that connects 7+ points (with ONLY 1 point sticking out of it) on Feb 14.

At this point, a possible support is .618 (10.8k --> a level that took some effort to break).

Strong support is at 10.3k.

There's little doubt in my mind that my original prediction of 12k by March will be attained easily:
Comment: seems even 10.3 doesn't hold

with all the good news, I can only imagine that this is because whales are on holiday right now.
Comment: Let's hope it doesn't get lower.

I must repeat: there's neither fundamental nor technical reason for this dump.

It's pure manipulation. The price manipulators also use bots on social media (spamming FB, Reddit, Twitter... + upvoting "short" posts here)...

This time it's really just a "DRY DUMP".

But this is just how this market is. When we don't have the money to manipulate or the access to insider info, luck is an important factor. I hope I can be right 2/3 of the time.
Comment: whatever the reason, this is another huge crash. My hope is that 10k will hold, but if it's like @monkia suggests & we're retracing from the bottom, around 9k or even lower is possible.

In retrospect I should've sold as well.

with crashes this hard again and again in two months, many alts will have a hard time in months
Comment: I hope if bounces off 9.6k. If not, we have fibo levels 8.9k 8.2k...

Full-on correction mode.
So bull trap after all we will see.
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Add OMG to the list
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Not trying to troll you here... but Saying there is no technical analysis to support this is a bit misleading to your readers. There's a lot of technical analysis suggesting a correction was coming, I've done several posts on them. The main one, but not the only, being that we completed 5 waves and technical analysis would suggest a 0.382-0.5 fib pull back from the start at $6k to the top at 11.8k, not the place you have placed your 'wave count'. We only got to 0.382, which probably means that was the A leg, B to go up slightly and then C down to 0.5. The other outcomes could be B all the way up to make a double top and then C down or that we have completed the ABC.

IMHO, what actually causes some crashes is that many 'traders' are not aware of these necessary technical pull backs and then panic causing a much bigger pull back than was necessary or indeed a crash.
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DrJLT monkia
@monkia, should've been a consolidation, not crash. also, if you look at it that way I'd say we just finished Wave 3.
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monkia DrJLT
@DrJLT, yes maybe on the wave C finish. EW analysis is tricky. We may have finished wave C, but it could be just wave A in a larger ABC, that's why trading corrections are very tricky. A 0.382 retrace, as we have just seen, is a lightweight correction, most go to 0.5 (9k) or 0.618 (8k). A harsh retrace would back to 7k (0.786). A crash would be back down to the 6k.
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DrJLT monkia
@monkia, thanks my friend. The main reason I wrote there's no technical cause is this:

It was an expanding upward channel that had been extremely bullish. Volatility was increasing & there was no top formation. That means a technical reversal was not insight.

In this context, Wave 3 should've extended at least to 1.618 of the neckline / top of Wave 1 (in my view). A sudden crash like this is hairy. I also don't see a Wave 5 yet. This is if we count the waves from the 6k bottom.

I think it's better not to rely on EW to predict reversal but instead look at reversal patterns & signs of bull exhaustion.

One sign that was there but I chose to ignore (apparently mistakenly) was bearish divergence in volume.

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monkia DrJLT
@DrJLT, yeah, would have been nicer to see a double top :-). I only sold 50% and was waiting for something like that.

Here is the five waves I see which gave 1.168 extension for wave 3 from wave 1. Also the other indicators were that the height of the H&S formation was met and it had convergence with wave 5 bear down. The red area was put in a week or two ago.

+1 Reply
DrJLT monkia
@monkia, just looked again, you're right, from the bottom the retracement level now is still very shallow. even to 9.6k it's only 0.386 & very bullish.

I was also wrong about the 1.618 -> that was 10.8k. I had this number in my head & didn't really check again when I posted / made the decision to hodl.
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monkia DrJLT
@DrJLT, thanks for the feedback. There's probably an opportunity coming on the B leg that I'll look to sell my remaining 50%....
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