So just to follow up on my Idea from yesterday, on the 4H chart we can clearly see the fib .382 (derived from the weekly high in dec '17 to the low of '18) acting as a support line from a triangle formation that formed since June (which i also pointed out on an earlier Idea). But nevertheless, this support line which has been resting around 9400/9500 has been tested 4 times the past two months. FOUR TIMES. And remember, this is based on the 4H chart. If you use another timeframe, you may see the same pattern more or less.
And since my Idea posted yesterday, BTC has gained about 5% but thats not the point. The point is, I took a slightly deeper look into these 4 "bounces" and have noticed a few interesting things on each one:
1st bounce: price unable to breakthrough ichimoku | 21 SMA not above 100, rebounded 18% before downtrending towards the 2nd bounce 2nd bounce: price made it above ichimoku, 21 crosses 100, 31% rebound 3rd bounce: price unable to breakthrough ichimoku | 21 SMA not above 100, rebounded only 16% before downtrending towards the 4th bounce 4th bounce: price made it above ichimoku, 21 approaching cross of 50, already above ichimoku, rebounded already at 11%, if it were to mirror the 2nd bounce then expect a PT of 12,352 which puts it at 31% rebound
As we approach September 4th (well in my timezone its getting close), we will see this 4th bounce be enough for the bulls to charge higher?
Thoughts?
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Sometimes we win. Sometimes we lose. I really thought this time would've been different but as we saw from yesterday's 20% drop, seems like the triangle formation breakdown has been confirmed. Looking for more depreciation in the near term.