BTCUSD: Short Squeeze As USD Peaks. Is This The Beginning?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD update: After the 6170 long trigger, price tested the 6431 to 6614 minor resistance zone quickly. This also happens to be where the bearish trend line is located. This type of price action is not a surprise since we have been writing about the high probability location for at least two weeks now.

The 6K psychological support, reversal zone boundaries at 5956 and 5669 along with the 8171 to 4938 broad support have been the focus. At S.C. we have been building inventory and continue to look for long trades in these markets.

What appears to be the key driver behind this surge in momentum is the U.S. Dollar. If you take a look at a larger time frame Dollar Index chart, you will notice the same type of price action, but inverted. Instead of a failed low, you will observe a failed high.

Interestingly enough, this reversal can been seen across forex pairs that counter the Dollar like EUR and GBP.

Do not forget, the major coins trade against fiat, and the world reserve currency is still the USD. That means it carries the most weight. Any broad moves in the Dollar can have dramatic effects on these coins.

If there is now a higher correlation to the USD, I want to be aware of it. For this reason I will be publishing a technical report on the USD on S.C. tomorrow so make sure to look for it.

In summary, at S.C., we are waiting for the next swing trade entry long. Since bearish structures are still in play, a retrace is likely, but the probability of a subsequent higher low has increased. Any pull back into the 6K area, followed by a long trigger will prompt us to participate in another long trade idea.

Stops and targets will continue to be conservative until broader bearish structures are taken out such as the 7381 resistance (.382 of current bearish structure).

The probability of the broader location outweighs the smaller time frame noise. And it has been reiterating long over and over. Do not lose sight, especially if this market decides to retest the lows once more. The next pull back will either make or break the broader reversal that appears to be in progress.
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We are still in the same channel. A sustained move above 6650, retest of support and back up. When it hits the peak, I will be ready to short it this time. The only way now is down for this year.... Binance CEO, hedge fund managers or whoever can say whatever they want to say. Unless we see BTC ETF approved any time soon, this year will be like 2014 and 2019 will be like 2015.

John McAfee should be looking for an escape plan....
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Valuable and insightful post Marc..... TY
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Bullls needed a bit of relief. However, the G20 Summit regulation meetings resume this month. I expect reduced volatility and stalling of price action as rumors get underway.

Since the Bulls were able to pull off a bullish engulfing candle and with most recent news leaning bullish, I am expecting a higher low (and I wouldn't expect a major low here. Not yet at least.)

Thanks for sharing.
Deutsche Bank dropping like the Hindenburg. Likely the flight from fake fiat into crypto will increase dramatically as the banking system fails. at this point it doesn't matter where the bottom in BTC is. It only matters where the bottom for fiat is.
Hi, thanks for your chart and point of view however I am not at all convinced that we have put in a bottom yet. After the triangle break to the downside price has developed a bearish impulse and has only just completed the first and second leg of a 5 wave structure. We are still bearish and any rally should be considered a short opportunity. I am looking for wave iii of the current bearish impulse to get underway with targets near 4000. Good luck trading.

4HR Chart:

Weekly with link to full thread and recent updates where we have been discussing corrective price structures and their behavior:
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@MarcPMarkets I read your article on S.C. where you compare BTC to NASDAQ but I don't think this is valid because crypto markets are unregulated and highly manipulated. For example, isn't it a little too convenient that there is a spike this weekend that pushes the price 10% (!) higher which triggers a "BTC above 6000$" headline on bloomberg front page. These spikes seem to happen regularly about once every week. I agree that long term no fundamentals have changed but until the positive outlook of Goldman Sachs, etc. are set into reality BTC will continue its downtrend for the coming weeks/months.
BTC weakly Realtime analyse #5 is out.
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