DanV
Short

BTCUSD - STILL REMAINS IN OVERALL BEARISH CYCLE - (UPDATE)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
In my last published chart some 2 months ago following the spike low around 151, I made provisional adjusted to the wave counts to reflect the price action still suggesting that the bearish cycle is still in action and has further to go. The reason for this was that bounce from 150 - 300 in not in clear 5 waves, rather it is in 3 swing zigzag.

Hence, in making the adjustment to the counts I concluded that the wave 3 has extended as is often the case with wave 3 and in the process forming the low at 151. Resulting price action since then was part of wave 4 retracement, which appears to have formed a zigzag with the second leg stopping short of the previous one giving as a double top (slightly lower than first).

The decline since could be part of the final zigzag (wave 5) to the downside as part of a larger wave C of Ending Diagonal (falling wedge) of 3-3-3-3-3 construction which commenced in Jan 2014 high.

If correct then the wave 5 of the ending diagonal could reach 120 - 90 zone. We will have better idea of its final target zone as we see it develop.

The wave C as ending diagonal shown in the Log scale on this main chart is less clear compared with the arithmetic scale. Therefore as comparison and enhancing the understanding to this bear cycle I am posting additional charts as follows:

1. Arithmetic chart with wave C clearly visible as falling wedge referred to above.
2. A point & figure chart which gives different perspective but similar conclusion. Namely, that we are still potentially in bearish cycle though the actual counts are little different.
3. A short term 4 hour chart with pitchfork, showing clearly that we could be in next zigzag leg down supported by OBV weakening and diverging with price

Other notes are shown on each of the charts for ease of reference.

Also note that In my last short term published chart based on H4 where I suggested that wave 4 could go to higher level is now less likely as I think the wave 4 top is in place and wave 5 is now in process.

I could host a live session next week to explain all this. If you are interested in this please indicate it by your comments and ensure you have tagged this chart for announcement of the scheduled, follow me on my Youtube channel and register at danv-charting.dom and to obtain a link to join me and be notified.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most5 but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Arithmetic scale chart
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Point & Figure chart
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Short term 4 hour charts
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wonky_tonky DanV
2 years ago
what about this trendline beeing broken?
sideways..& boring.. then up.
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DanV MOD wonky_tonky
2 years ago
@wonky_tonky Well in very volatile instruments sometime minor breaches of trendlines do occur as over throw but do not necessary suggest trend change.

So whilst you make valid observation not sure right now if that breach is significant but worth keeping an eye for confirmation or otherwise.

Thanks for your question.
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IvanLabrie TOP wonky_tonky
2 years ago
Bitcoin: Buy after a weekly downtrend failure


This is my take on it.
Invalidated if there's a move under the lowest horizontal ray.
Looks to me like a leading diagonal wave 1 after a completed wxyxz correction (it fits a paralell channel nicely in the log chart). I wouldn't go linear here.
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IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
It could also be a running triangle, but I don't think it is. We'll know soon enough.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Thank for your comments and sharing your charts here.

On the point of leading diagonal it would be strange since so far the initial swing of the low appears to be a abc zigzag with second swing as ending diagonal with 5 minor waves. So you would expect leading diagonal preferably to be 5-3-5-3-5 construction. It might alveoli in to complex sideways congestion before resuming the downside.

However, I agree we will likely find out soon enough
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IvanLabrie TOP DanV
2 years ago
A thrust up is in the cards in my view.
Doesn't mean large scale reversal is implied, but it's possible too.
My target is 257 to 267 in the near short term, but it can do two or three times that range and hit 379.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
If it does that the the short term counts would change whilst overall direction remains intact.

Will follow with interest fir sure Thanks.
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mic.kimani IvanLabrie
2 years ago
+1. Also think $255 at 200 EMA could be next after todays $249
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DanV MOD mic.kimani
2 years ago
Yes indeed that have yet not been tested. So potential further resistance just ahead. Thank you for your comment.
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LastBattle
2 years ago
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Using simple trend lines ... I'm bullish in bitcoin, but we'll see :) market may surprise us eventually...
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DanV MOD LastBattle
2 years ago
Yes Indeed.

Potentially could be at an important juncture. Thanks
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khoilevt
2 years ago
Super div MACD is too long ...
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DanV MOD khoilevt
2 years ago
Yes I have noted the diversion in the MACD, but as you have seen already such diversions do not guarantee immediate reversal and could continue for extended period before the trend reversal or such diversion could ultimately fail.

So any indicators suggesting possible trend reversal or resumption needs to be confirmed by price.

Hope this helps.
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khoilevt DanV
2 years ago
is There no hope for bitcoin ?
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DanV MOD khoilevt
2 years ago
I depends what you mean by "no hope". I didn't say or imply that except that there is likely to be lower prices to come. But could be wrong.

Only commenting from TA's perceptive not taking into account others factors which I don't know much about as all knows, that I don't really understand the infrastructure and ecosystem etc of the entire crypto currencies.
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maxcarjuzaa DanV
2 years ago
What price action do you need to see to invalidate this forecast and confirm trend reversal? Thank you! I've been following your forecast for the last 6 months, really great work!
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DanV MOD maxcarjuzaa
2 years ago
Thank for your compliment and question.

We needs to take out with strong momentum the 300 zone and then 380. Even then it would be considered as a retracement rally of the decline from Jan 2014 to last low at 151.

In such a case we would have larger wave A low at 151 and then any higher prices even going to 800+ would be considered as larger wave B with the implication that on completion we would decline in impulsive 5 wave to retest 151 low or take out and make new lower low.

The best case scenario for BTC and the one I prefer is that we continue to decline and form final low before new bullish cycle to get under way. The alternate one I noted above would be very painful and stretch over much longer period though for the traders there will be lots of opportunities.

So I don't have a direct answer but hope the above helps.

I discussed various possible alternative in my live GoogleHangout link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfFxr7sabPk

It is rather long but trust you will find it it of value.
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mic.kimani DanV
2 years ago
Hangout already happened? :( Will catch it later.

Always a pleasure DanV. Thanks for sharing your analysis
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DanV MOD mic.kimani
2 years ago
YW. Thank you for the compliment.

That Hangout is from earlier in the year where I generally explored various potential outcome in addition to explaining what the 151 low is not the final low. Hope you enjoy it.
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mic.kimani DanV
2 years ago
i've seen it! :) I saw you mentioned there's one coming out soon and we'll be notified, correct?
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DanV MOD mic.kimani
2 years ago
Yes you are correct. That one is yet to be scheduled. Will update all as soon I have have scheduled it.
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Mathijs
2 years ago
Great chart as always! low 100 and also around 70/80 would not surprise me!
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DanV MOD Mathijs
2 years ago
Thank you for your comments and compliment. I appreciate it.
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BlockchainParty
2 years ago
Hi please consider this additional count, and descending trendline, thanks
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DanV MOD BlockchainParty
2 years ago
Thank you for sharing your chart and comment.

Personally, I have no problem in whatever counts are applied by different EW practitioners. If it works then that is the most important thing.

However, I have often been coming a cross very similar proposals & suggestions ever since Dec 2013 low. Each time with a view to demonstrate that this is the final low. You might be able to check some of these in comments posted by viewers on my historical published charts of BITCUSD. I have additionally explained why they were not likely in live hangouts at the time, which you can also check (in my Youtube channel with link to one of the video in my profile page) to understand the reason why those counts and suggestions have been failing each time.

The basic reasons behind it are:
1. That whilst a cursory glance might suggest possible -5 EW counts, they do not fit because each of the supposed impulsive swings decline has never been successfully shown to have internal 5 wave counts in wave 1, 3 and 5. Rather they remain as I have indicted complex zigzags.

2. Secondly every move of the low starts with a zizgzag too, not impulsive 1-5 with supposed wave 1 of the low also showing clear 5 internal counts wave.

Consequently, every time we have new low, many have argued that that is the final low by similar counts, which eventually fail as I have been explaining this every time.

I am not saying for a moment that I am an expert at applying EW and my interpretations of price action could also be wrong. In fact I have been wrong many times in all sorts of markets not just the Bitcoin.

Nevertheless, I feel that I have a good grasp of EW and its application. Even accepting that I do often struggle to correctly label all minors swings as they are not easy for anyone, yet overall larger picture has been relatively correct and the roadmap on daily time frame which I have sharing for many months have held reasonably well in general direction.

So turning to your chart, the move of the 151 low to 307 high which you have labelled as 1 (in RED) is in fact not wave 1 which consist of 5 minor waves within it. It is in fact just an abc zigzag. Unless you can show me that you can satisfy that requirement of impulsive wave of the low, it cannot be wave 1, no matter how we wish to believe that it is. Then from that point onward every labels you have are likely to be wrong.

Similarly, leaving the EW theory a side, you cannot imagine number of time many have argued about supposed breakout of the price above declining trendline. Then it is question of from where to where these lines have been drawn and in highly volatile instruments minor breaches do occur without supporting trend reversal. Do you apply the trendline on log scale chart or arithmetic charts? Many will choose the one they find supporting their arguments.

So for now I cannot agree with the labels on your chart. Even if the price do breakout to the upside as you suggest by your trendline break, it is not going to be new impulsive move as explained earlier in reply to the other viewer.

I trust this explains my reasoning and why charts with similar labels suggesting low is in is likely to have some problems.
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BlockchainParty DanV
2 years ago
Thank you for such a detailed response, I was not expecting that!

I understand your concerns with labeling the move off the lows an impulse. I would urge caution, however, that 5-wave impulses are often confused as 3-wave moves off the lows. For instance, zooming into the March 2009 low of the stock market, the low from there appeared to be 3-waves.

I have counted the clean 5 impulse waves for your direction seen here:
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The obvious criticism will be the short magnitude of wave 4, however, does not invalidate the count.

Thanks for your analysis!
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DanV MOD BlockchainParty
2 years ago
YW.

If you are happy with the counts on your chart with link which you provided, that is fine with me. Thanks.
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BlockchainParty DanV
2 years ago
And for reference, I have been following the impulse 5-wave C count since August 2014

https://twitter.com/BlockchainParty/status/500388158870401024
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DanV MOD BlockchainParty
2 years ago
Hmmm, you have unusual approach to EW labels for sure.

We will see how it conforms to price development. Thanks again.
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mic.kimani
2 years ago
what is your time estimate of a gradual decline to $100 (if it does happen)?
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DanV MOD mic.kimani
2 years ago
As shown in the chart late June as the earliest but probably more like August 2015. Though it is only an estimate using Time Fib extension and some basic time symmetry by manual comparing various swings with numbers of bars with others.
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Tanner
2 years ago
Boo
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DanV MOD Tanner
2 years ago
Hahahaha.
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alteredend
2 years ago
Hey Dan, pretty new to this how does this look?

http://imgur.com/DkXFuZp
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DanV MOD alteredend
2 years ago
Hi. Thank you for your question and sharing for your chart.

That is one possibility. It seems to highlight the general target with now many are becoming ware of and realising that it is no as impossible as once thought.

That said it is still worth taking into account any new price action wish either confirms or not to adjust as required.

Good effort and nice chart.
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soap
2 years ago
Hi DanV,such a situation is possible, right?
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soap soap
2 years ago
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DanV MOD soap
2 years ago
Hi, thank you for your question.

Yes it is possible but in reality will such thing happen? We will have to wait and see I guess.
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rubenthin PRO
2 years ago
Hello DanV. Could you please explain the WXY ending at 5 and C at $108.5?
So the wxy is able to form wave 5 and take the place of what would normally be 5 impulse waves?
Is that the case?
Thanks a lot.
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DanV MOD rubenthin
2 years ago
Hi Thanks for your question.

Normally you might have abc in a zigzag. But in that formation it is requirement that we get wave C with 5 impulsive minor wave within it.

So where you are not likely to have wave C as above, then you have zigzag formation which are wxy in which case the wave y do not need impulsive 5 waves within it. So it is deemed as corrective zigzag .

Hope this helps.
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oldstout DanV
2 years ago
Hey DanV, pretty boring flat last days and helping when price went down, but without fomo followers... pretty easy that we're going down soon. 4h BBands so thin, big move likely soon... I don't like when someone is helping price but it's just a matter of time that big down move is coming. Any update from you?
Best
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DanV MOD oldstout
2 years ago
Thank you for your comments.

On H4 time frame we have made a very short lived dash and then price action just dies out. However so far gradually still grinding lower.

Looking at our roadmap on daily charts, still continues to be good guide and any further drop is going to confirm the anticipated decline.

Can't really add any more.

But if we get any clarity i will post the update here. Thanks.
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ucdos1988 PRO
2 years ago
Hi, davn
I have been concerned about you for a long time, you are great!
How can the chart count?
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ucdos1988 PRO ucdos1988
2 years ago
https://blockchain.info/zh-cn/charts/market-price?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&timespan=all&scale=1&address=
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DanV MOD ucdos1988
2 years ago
@ucdos1988 - I am not sure what you mean. I assume you as asking me to see we can label this chart from Blockchain. If that is what you mean it is very hard to do so on that platform. But what purpose would it serve? How would that help with knowing or even understanding what happens to BTC. How are they related? Thanks for the compliment.
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ucdos1988 PRO DanV
2 years ago
How do you think from 2010 to the wave counts of historical charts?
I'm sorry, I can't speak English..
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DanV MOD ucdos1988
2 years ago
Thankyou for your question.

Even going back to 2010 which I have done on several occasions, however, the data do not go back far enough to be conclusive.

The main thing is that it does not alter the fact that we are still in bearish cycle that commenced since Nov 2013. This is likely to continue even if we manage to achieve higher prices but will turn back to retest 151 low or make new lower low before the cycle completes.

Hope this helps.
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ucdos1988 PRO DanV
2 years ago
thankyou danv,you are great!
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DanV MOD ucdos1988
2 years ago
Here is the chart in which I have been following the counts id Brown, Blue and Magenta. If this is correct then we are still in larger wave 4 which could continue till we retest 151 or make new low.

Alternative is in Green. If the Nov 2013 completed the cycle in Green then we have a long, long way to go and will be dismissed by majority and even will find new ways to poking fun at me I am sure.

So take it for what it is - inconclusive counts due to not enough historical data.
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ucdos1988 PRO DanV
2 years ago
-4's fix time has gone beyond , can you?
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DanV MOD ucdos1988
2 years ago
Wave 4 has gone for longer than originally anticipated. So it still is wave 4 or as I explained we have completed Green cycle and will continue declining for a long time to come.
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alteredend DanV
2 years ago
Thoughts on latest movement?
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DanV MOD alteredend
2 years ago
@alteredend Please see my comments below.
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soap
2 years ago
Hi DanV,Bitcoin is going to go up to $ 300 now look like ... ... Your point of view without change?
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DanV MOD soap
2 years ago
@soap Thank you for your question

I note the bullish price action over last couple of day. I understand that this might cause you to wonder why I still remain bearish.

I have nothing against revising my view when this become necessary or many of the eager bulls to be proved right. As you know I was expecting price to go up lot higher based on my last short term published chart. However the move of the 210 low did not develop into what I was looking for namely 5 wave impulsive move. Hence I think we could be in early stage of resuming down cycle.

I can understand that when someone is eagerly expectant of certain out come few Dollar move after agonisingly quite price action become very exciting leading to renew d bullish spirit. However, there is not enough in there to suddenly flip my view. 250 still remains major resistance and needs to be overcomed first before you 300 or even higher target become feasible.

So whilst ready to review my bias at any time it want be after few dollar moves. This in fact has become never ending story ever since we made secondary top in Jan 2014 in that repeatedly may traders or analyst have said the same thing about my views. So understand puzzlement expressed by others on my being seemingly stubborn.

For now though 250 remains string resistance and until that is taken out I have no reason to review my outlook. Here is the chart which i trust is self explanatory. Hope it helps
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soap DanV
2 years ago
As always, support your analysis, thank you!
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DanV MOD soap
2 years ago
You are welcome
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ucdos1988 PRO DanV
2 years ago
Hi, danv
Is there a part of the WXY rally? WXY=A now=C
Now running a rebound C wave?
Because the wave counts of bitfinex and okcoin are different
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DanV MOD ucdos1988
2 years ago
Hi, thank you for your question but I am not sure what you mean.

When we start talking about wxy or abc or any such counts it is difficult to know what you are referring to.

So here is a chart with BitFinex and OK Coin BTCUSD comparison and I do not see major difference between then since 151 low. Of course there will be minor variation but not significant to change the entire outlook,

But her is the question, even if there was some noticeable difference then how would you use that? Which one would you give bias to if they are both suggesting possible different outcome? Which if the tow will be right?

Unless one is trying to find every possible details in unclear sideways corrective market to support bullish case if that is what you are trying to do. Or conversely a bearish case.

So whilst such ambiguity persist there is no way of knowing which of the 2 views might turnout right and as traders you trade accordingly but either staying flat or keeping position small enough to manage risk.

It is not the case of who or which is right as that would not necessarily help with the trading in this price zone.

May be I am missing something here and would love to see what you meant by your suggestion. In which case would you care to share your chart?
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ucdos1988 PRO DanV
2 years ago
I'm sorry, I'm a novice.
I prepared a chart, but how should it be published?
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DanV MOD ucdos1988
2 years ago
On the chart at the bottom left you have camera click that and you will get link to snapshot. Copy that and paste it in small window at top left of this chat box and click insert. That should do it. Hope it works for you.
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ucdos1988 PRO DanV
2 years ago
It's great, very respectful, thank you very much.!
Would it be like this?
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ucdos1988 PRO ucdos1988
2 years ago
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DanV MOD ucdos1988
2 years ago
What you are counting as wave b? might be just minor abc or wxy. It is possible that we have your 2/B? where wave wave a is.

We will have to wait for clarification with more price data.

Thankyou for your chart
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soap DanV
2 years ago
Hi DanV,Pressure line to be broken it?
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DanV MOD soap
2 years ago
It is hard to focus on specific trendlines such as this one to come to specific conclusion based on potentially price breaking to upside by minor amount.

Some time we have a false break and at other time some trendlines we draw are just that joining 2 points which might turn into significant price interaction line or not.

Many have continued to find since Nov 2013 that similar approach in previous cases also suggested bullish action with much higher prices did not have follow through.

So cannot say if there is a breakout now, whether this will be major one or just another attempt that will fail. We will have to see how price progresses from from here.

But of course would not argue any who wish to feel they are confident about the break to consider buying at this level.
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soap DanV
2 years ago
Thank you for your reply! Market also gives a response ......
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khoilevt DanV
2 years ago
Cool...
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DanV MOD khoilevt
2 years ago
Thanks
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ucdos1988 PRO
2 years ago
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Is this a help for your wave?
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DanV MOD ucdos1988
2 years ago
There are some similarities in 60 day cycle but they never form in uniform way. I have noted that 60 cycle apply some time from Hight to High and at other time High to low. At other times they are not exact but related by fib ratio

So whilst interesting it does not specifically help in applying waves in the manner you are suggesting.

Thank you for your suggestion though.
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ucdos1988 PRO
2 years ago
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Hi,DanV
Is it a triangle?
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DanV MOD ucdos1988
2 years ago
Difficult to say. It might develop into triangle or might fail.

We need more price data to be sure.
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ucdos1988 PRO DanV
2 years ago
Hi,DanV
Can you give the operation suggestion now?
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DanV MOD ucdos1988
2 years ago
Sorry nothing new to add. We have been confined to very tight price range and it appears to be biased to the downside but really nothing meaningful to review analysis.

When we have decent price move in either direction we will review. Thanks
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ucdos1988 PRO DanV
2 years ago
It could be part of the C4.
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DanV MOD ucdos1988
2 years ago
May be. Can't be to sure yet.
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khoilevt
2 years ago
what's the next ?
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StefanP khoilevt
2 years ago
DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM? :)
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DanV MOD StefanP
2 years ago
Hehehe, it might turn out that way yes indeed.
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StefanP DanV
2 years ago
lol I say doom to loud - we have near 220$ i couple seconds :D
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DanV MOD StefanP
2 years ago
Sure I understand.

However, it might not be so simple as it could go side ways again around 220 before dropping further or as in the past could just plough through it.

So extreme care for any longs.
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StefanP DanV
2 years ago
I'm waiting for more data... if price cross 210$ then beartrend strarts hard, if not then return to 230-240 range...

Now - no position, to risky.
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StefanP StefanP
2 years ago
13k BTC in bids to reach 97$ ;) or 13k BTC to reach 270$, nice speculation.... I wonder if it is false walls.
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