BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In my last published chart some 2 months ago following the spike low around 151, I made provisional adjusted to the wave counts to reflect the price action still suggesting that the bearish cycle is still in action and has further to go. The reason for this was that bounce from 150 - 300 in not in clear 5 waves, rather it is in 3 swing zigzag .

Hence, in making the adjustment to the counts I concluded that the wave 3 has extended as is often the case with wave 3 and in the process forming the low at 151. Resulting price action since then was part of wave 4 retracement, which appears to have formed a zigzag with the second leg stopping short of the previous one giving as a double top (slightly lower than first).

The decline since could be part of the final zigzag (wave 5) to the downside as part of a larger wave C of Ending Diagonal ( falling wedge ) of 3-3-3-3-3 construction which commenced in Jan 2014 high.

If correct then the wave 5 of the ending diagonal could reach 120 - 90 zone. We will have better idea of its final target zone as we see it develop.

The wave C as ending diagonal shown in the Log scale on this main chart is less clear compared with the arithmetic scale. Therefore as comparison and enhancing the understanding to this bear cycle I am posting additional charts as follows:

1. Arithmetic chart with wave C clearly visible as falling wedge referred to above.
2. A point & figure chart which gives different perspective but similar conclusion. Namely, that we are still potentially in bearish cycle though the actual counts are little different.
3. A short term 4 hour chart with pitchfork , showing clearly that we could be in next zigzag leg down supported by OBV weakening and diverging with price

Other notes are shown on each of the charts for ease of reference.

Also note that In my last short term published chart based on H4 where I suggested that wave 4 could go to higher level is now less likely as I think the wave 4 top is in place and wave 5 is now in process.

I could host a live session next week to explain all this. If you are interested in this please indicate it by your comments and ensure you have tagged this chart for announcement of the scheduled, follow me on my Youtube channel and register at danv-charting.dom and to obtain a link to join me and be notified.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most5 but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

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+2 Reply
UPDATE: Existing Road Map might still play out. However as commented it is getting very stretched. So whilst keeping an eye on this, we need to consider possible transition to interim bullish move but still only as retracement of the decline since Nov 2013 high to 151 low. I have published this alternative today. Here is the link
Update: We might have to give 280 area for the potential upside as, we might have a top in place already for the cycle. Since the high formed we have 5 wave impulse move to downside developing well. If correct then on completion an abc retracement would help to confirm this.
+2 Reply
bbrox DanV
Thanks for the great work!
DanV bbrox
Thanks for the compliment. Path is not exactly as sketch out but still for now not expecting this to build bullish leg. But will have more sideways move before it drops. Hopefully will get more clues as we progress.
Hi DanV. Can wave 1 be a diagonal as I have drawn it here? Or must this be a continued part of a bigger corrective move down? Thanks a lot
rubenthin rubenthin
or must it be this (thanks Ronald Bringer for raising the idea)?
DanV rubenthin
Hi Thanks for your question. Wave one could be leading diagonal. Though in this particular setting you could be right that it might be or it might be part of complex correction or even wave C of running flat. ie on resolution we could get strong decline.

Not entirely clear just yet.
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