In my last published chart some 2 months ago following the spike low around 151, I made provisional adjusted to the wave counts to reflect the price action still suggesting that the bearish cycle is still in action and has further to go. The reason for this was that bounce from 150 - 300 in not in clear 5 waves, rather it is in 3 swing zigzag.
Hence, in making the adjustment to the counts I concluded that the wave 3 has extended as is often the case with wave 3 and in the process forming the low at 151. Resulting price action since then was part of wave 4 retracement, which appears to have formed a zigzag with the second leg stopping short of the previous one giving as a double top (slightly lower than first).
The decline since could be part of the final zigzag (wave 5) to the downside as part of a larger wave C of Ending Diagonal (falling wedge) of 3-3-3-3-3 construction which commenced in Jan 2014 high.
If correct then the wave 5 of the ending diagonal could reach 120 - 90 zone. We will have better idea of its final target zone as we see it develop.
The wave C as ending diagonal shown in the Log scale on this main chart is less clear compared with the arithmetic scale. Therefore as comparison and enhancing the understanding to this bear cycle I am posting additional charts as follows:
1. Arithmetic chart with wave C clearly visible as falling wedge referred to above. 2. A point & figure chart which gives different perspective but similar conclusion. Namely, that we are still potentially in bearish cycle though the actual counts are little different. 3. A short term 4 hour chart with pitchfork, showing clearly that we could be in next zigzag leg down supported by OBV weakening and diverging with price
Other notes are shown on each of the charts for ease of reference.
Also note that In my last short term published chart based on H4 where I suggested that wave 4 could go to higher level is now less likely as I think the wave 4 top is in place and wave 5 is now in process.
I could host a live session next week to explain all this. If you are interested in this please indicate it by your comments and ensure you have tagged this chart for announcement of the scheduled, follow me on my Youtube channel and register at danv-charting.dom and to obtain a link to join me and be notified.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most5 but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
UPDATE: From our Roadmap chart on daily time frame with some time symmetry, it seems that we could have possible high around 22nd June. This might form a retracement high or it might be wave 4 high if it is a triangle. Please see also 8Hr charts for more details. Either way at present it looks bearish development. Upper limited of this retracement could be 260 - 280. Here are the updated charts
DanV
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Once we have some clarity or confirmation we could have greater confidence in our overall expectation. Otherwise will review as necessary. Thank you all for your support.
oldstout
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Thanks. Good job as always:-)
DanV
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Your are welcome.
PlayDefence
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Hi, DanV.
Really appreciate for your chart. If Wave 4 of LARGE WAVE C is an abcde count, then will WAVE C still valid for an ending diagonal ? Also, Wave 4's high is not touching Wave 1 yet, but daily 200MA (~$259) has a huge impact as resistance. So it's kind of weird of WAVE C from Jan 2014.
DanV
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Hi thanks for your question. I agree that wave 4 overlap with wave 1 is absent in this case which is not ideal.
However it is still possible.
Alternative counts I showed in P&F chart which looks fairly clear and suggest similar outcome, where we have an expanding diagonal starting from June high labelled as wave (b) top.
So either way we are still in bearish trend which is not quite ready to end or has ended. Here is the P&F chart again.
Also on normal chart, we might have commence the final decline after wave 4 top with possible leading diagonal forming low at 210 and wxy gigzag retracement which could be complete. Or wave 4 still in progress and is forming a bearish symmetrical triangle that could complete soon. Here it is shown in 8Hr time frame chart.
Therefore I am still leaning to further downside to follow.
Hope this helps
PlayDefence
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Hi, DanV.
Thanks so much for posting P&F chart. It's clear and loud. Both chart make sense. Really appreciate your work!
At the same time, I tried to count it as an impulse wave but probably wrong, due to some wave count's time frame is kind of large making it less reliable.
DanV
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My pleasure and you are welcome. Regarding your chart you could be right.
However we are more likely to see zigzag if it part of larger falling wedge or as noted in P&F chart may be expanding diagonal. So still zigzag or double zigzag is likely.
PlayDefence
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Thanks for replies.
So if it's zigzag of last falling wedge, then we expect to see another 5 wave structure wave (c), or zigzag for wave y of double zigzags as noted in P&F chart. Hope I get it.