BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Shorted 5th Wave At Resistance + Median Fork + 1/2/4hr Pin Bar (s), Stops On Chart.
Comment: Watch for a bounce at the Daily Pivot if so a move back into 9k is shortable.

Trade active
Comment: Daily Pivot Hit. I’m booking 50% of my position. I want to book some profits now then load up on more shorts on any bounce while RSI resets itself.

Failing that I have the other 50% for the 1st Target area where I will get long for what should be an A/B/C corrective wave where I book the long then open fresh shorts and ride to the 2nd Target.

Comment: Pivot Bounce.

Comment: Filling Shorts

Comment: Quick Update on price action.

The bulls are trying to keep the momentum alive, however we can see there are Daily & Weekly Resistance Levels (see chart below) + the 50% fib to take out first that offer a decent test of their resolve.

Saying that and If I'm wrong on my bias then what we will in all likelihood see is a larger A/B/C move into the 61.8% take from the March high to the previous low at 9,680 before we see a healthy pullback.

Only a move above the 50% Fib, Median Pitchfork Line & Daily Resistance levels "9,200" will confirm this sequence is indeed very bullish and we will likely see 11k in the coming weeks to Month(s).

However given all of this resistance plus 4hr Bearish divergence beginning to show I'll remain short until we take out the levels discussed.

If this does turn bullish above 9200 or if we turn lower from here it's win win to remain short until confirmation because being wrong while short at this level is a very small price to pay to then get long for the big move up or staying short for the ride below.

Don't get bullish yet or sucked into any fomo spike up it's all about follow through and taking levels out that count.

Good Luck

Comment: 9,040, above or below important level. Bulls keep failing to hold the Daily Pivot.

Very Good R/R here now.

Comment: Apologies 8,940 not 9040.
Comment: Heads Up! I've closed all my shorts for a small profit opened Longs as we are turning Bullish for another move into that Median Line and possible revised 5th wave.

Don't go super FOMO crazy on any big breakout.



Comment: Conversely if we do go full throttle bullish then this is where we are headed.

However bear in mind 9,200/9,300 is a tall order to get through.

Comment: Closed my long & reopened new shorts at 9,250.

The only way we are going higher from here is to get above 9,300 and stay there which makes this R/R short favorable at this level.

Comment: We are at the extreme topside for the bears (myself included) it's all about above or below 9,300.

A break above and the structure widens for bigger moves north otherwise we retrace from here. I'm still short. This push higher looks like a stop hunt.


Comment: Apologies for the late update on my chart.

Bitcoin as we can see decided on the Bullish outcome by making dual legs to the 200DMA, 61.8% retracement level before finally giving a pullback.

I'm bullish Bitcoin but we need to see a healthy pullback from the 6,600 base we made earlier before seeing bigger levels.

I've made two attempts at shorting which I've been wrong but still feel comfortable knowing I have an understanding of the overall structure of the market moving forward.

Currently we are consolidating in the level you see in the chart below, I remain short as I only hedged my short on the break of 9,300 and unhedged at the 61.8% as I'm still looking for lower levels. Any break above 9k with at least 2/3 4hr bars closing will signify for a me a bottom has set in the area we are in now.

Do bear in mind price could see as low as 8k over the coming sessions so I only remain actively short and only look for such opportunities unless have a clean break of 9k.

Comment: The pullback from 9,700 was shallow before we corrected up to the 61.8% fib level so this could be a three leg decline to a min target of 8,400/8,200.

If prior support at 8,700 doesn't hold this is the place to buy otherwise I'm a buyer if 8,700 holds and we push off of this level but looking like we could see a deeper level caution here!

8,400 equates to the Monthly Pivot 8,200 the 50% Fibo so above 50% is Bullish so would be nice to come off that level and ramp to 10k.

Comment: Heads Up, Tracking This Structure As It Develops;


Comment:
Comment: Quick Update;

Although we bounced off the Weekly Pivot/ 61.8% ret level the Daily Pivot has been tested and printed an hourly Pin Bar so it's possible we attempt a move to the highest possible point of D located at the Daily R1 at 9357 before a bigger pullback.

For this reason I exited my longs and shorts and remain flat. I'll look to short 9350's with stops above the Daily R2.

Only a break above the Daily R2 can we move to bullish extension studies.

Comment: This Is The Pullback I've Been Waiting For Buying here.

Trade closed manually
Comment: Perfect Entry:

Comment: I want to draw your attention to this chart. What you’re seeing is what I’m calling an energy point in the market they act as resistance and support. There are areas of the market that become stretched at what you could say is an extreme point where a decision in direction needs to be made.

I don’t like using too many colors in my charting but I feel it’s necessary to draw your attention to what you’re seeing. Notice the top yellow band in the pitchfork running up against the red band? This is such an inflection point.

One of two things is going to happen, if we break the red band we are going to see a move to a minimum trgt of 9,600. If you’re looking to get in the place to buy in is 9180 this is also an inflection point that offers the best R/R entry which is up against the green band at the bottom.

A break below that green band would be a worry and the bears should take over for a move to 8,400 unless we see some an immediate reaction below to bring us back up above that green band.

Look to buy on a break above 9,340 with a touch of the Daily R1 9,421 and only buy the pullback to the red band otherwise watch 9180.

Comment: 9200/9180 will be a battleground for up or down, that red band inflection point couldn't get broken and held so the Daily Pivot green band offers a decent R/R.

If that green band breaks and we linger in the low 9'ks it's an ominous sign for reaching lower levels 8,400/8k.

Agree! The 3 day chart looks like it's in desperate need of a pullback, but clearly a lot of money went into crypto from the bond market selloff on Friday. Not so sure it's over yet.
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Goodness, finally someone not calling moonshot to 10k with no correction.
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