Failing that I have the other 50% for the 1st Target area where I will get long for what should be an A/B/C corrective wave where I book the long then open fresh shorts and ride to the 2nd Target.
The bulls are trying to keep the momentum alive, however we can see there are Daily & Weekly Resistance Levels (see chart below) + the 50% fib to take out first that offer a decent test of their resolve.
Saying that and If I'm wrong on my bias then what we will in all likelihood see is a larger A/B/C move into the 61.8% take from the March high to the previous low at 9,680 before we see a healthy pullback.
Only a move above the 50% Fib, Median Pitchfork Line & Daily Resistance levels "9,200" will confirm this sequence is indeed very bullish and we will likely see 11k in the coming weeks to Month(s).
However given all of this resistance plus 4hr Bearish divergence beginning to show I'll remain short until we take out the levels discussed.
If this does turn bullish above 9200 or if we turn lower from here it's win win to remain short until confirmation because being wrong while short at this level is a very small price to pay to then get long for the big move up or staying short for the ride below.
Don't get bullish yet or sucked into any fomo spike up it's all about follow through and taking levels out that count.
Very Good R/R here now.
Don't go super FOMO crazy on any big breakout.
However bear in mind 9,200/9,300 is a tall order to get through.
The only way we are going higher from here is to get above 9,300 and stay there which makes this R/R short favorable at this level.
A break above and the structure widens for bigger moves north otherwise we retrace from here. I'm still short. This push higher looks like a stop hunt.
Bitcoin as we can see decided on the Bullish outcome by making dual legs to the 200DMA, 61.8% retracement level before finally giving a pullback.
I'm bullish Bitcoin but we need to see a healthy pullback from the 6,600 base we made earlier before seeing bigger levels.
I've made two attempts at shorting which I've been wrong but still feel comfortable knowing I have an understanding of the overall structure of the market moving forward.
Currently we are consolidating in the level you see in the chart below, I remain short as I only hedged my short on the break of 9,300 and unhedged at the 61.8% as I'm still looking for lower levels. Any break above 9k with at least 2/3 4hr bars closing will signify for a me a bottom has set in the area we are in now.
Do bear in mind price could see as low as 8k over the coming sessions so I only remain actively short and only look for such opportunities unless have a clean break of 9k.
If prior support at 8,700 doesn't hold this is the place to buy otherwise I'm a buyer if 8,700 holds and we push off of this level but looking like we could see a deeper level caution here!
8,400 equates to the Monthly Pivot 8,200 the 50% Fibo so above 50% is Bullish so would be nice to come off that level and ramp to 10k.
Although we bounced off the Weekly Pivot/ 61.8% ret level the Daily Pivot has been tested and printed an hourly Pin Bar so it's possible we attempt a move to the highest possible point of D located at the Daily R1 at 9357 before a bigger pullback.
For this reason I exited my longs and shorts and remain flat. I'll look to short 9350's with stops above the Daily R2.
Only a break above the Daily R2 can we move to bullish extension studies.
I don’t like using too many colors in my charting but I feel it’s necessary to draw your attention to what you’re seeing. Notice the top yellow band in the pitchfork running up against the red band? This is such an inflection point.
One of two things is going to happen, if we break the red band we are going to see a move to a minimum trgt of 9,600. If you’re looking to get in the place to buy in is 9180 this is also an inflection point that offers the best R/R entry which is up against the green band at the bottom.
A break below that green band would be a worry and the bears should take over for a move to 8,400 unless we see some an immediate reaction below to bring us back up above that green band.
Look to buy on a break above 9,340 with a touch of the Daily R1 9,421 and only buy the pullback to the red band otherwise watch 9180.
If that green band breaks and we linger in the low 9'ks it's an ominous sign for reaching lower levels 8,400/8k.