ETF outflows ≠ bearish sentiment; OTC market is secretly maneuvering
The Bitcoin ETF has seen a cumulative outflow of $2.8 billion in the past month. This is not an indication of institutional bearishness; rather, it is a shift of funds from "off the books" to "on the books". Major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have taken positions through the OTC market, with the volume of off-exchange transactions surging by 78% in 30 days. This was done to circumvent the restrictions of ETF subscription and redemption rules. This "openly reducing while secretly increasing" pattern occurred at the bottom of the bear market in March 2020 and led to a 170% increase in Bitcoin prices over the following 6 months. Data from Bitfinex shows that the balance of wallets holding over 10,000 Bitcoin decreased by only 1.5% in October. This was not a panic sell-off; rather, it was a gradual profit-taking in the context of weak ETF demand, resetting positions for the next rally.
Bitcoin trading strategy
buy：95500-96500
tp:98000-99000
sl：94000
The Bitcoin ETF has seen a cumulative outflow of $2.8 billion in the past month. This is not an indication of institutional bearishness; rather, it is a shift of funds from "off the books" to "on the books". Major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have taken positions through the OTC market, with the volume of off-exchange transactions surging by 78% in 30 days. This was done to circumvent the restrictions of ETF subscription and redemption rules. This "openly reducing while secretly increasing" pattern occurred at the bottom of the bear market in March 2020 and led to a 170% increase in Bitcoin prices over the following 6 months. Data from Bitfinex shows that the balance of wallets holding over 10,000 Bitcoin decreased by only 1.5% in October. This was not a panic sell-off; rather, it was a gradual profit-taking in the context of weak ETF demand, resetting positions for the next rally.
Bitcoin trading strategy
buy：95500-96500
tp:98000-99000
sl：94000
Trade active
Wish everyone a pleasant weekend!Trade closed: target reached
The market sentiment diverges from the actual flow of funds. The bullish logic has not been undermined.The short-term panic caused by ETF fund outflows is essentially a misinterpretation of the fund flow direction - the funds have not withdrawn, but have been positioned through more flexible off-exchange channels; the small-scale by the big players is a normal position adjustment， not a collapse of confidence. Historical data and current characteristics of funds and positions all indicate that the current market is in a stage of "institutional covert accumulation + sentiment hovering at the bottom". The short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term upward logic. The fund transfer between ETFs and OTCs has laid a solid foundation for the subsequent rebound. For trading decisions， one should ignore the short-term emotional noise and focus on core signals such as institutional off-exchange and stable position of big players， seizing the layout opportunities during the adjustment period.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.