Hello, it's been a while since I last posted, but I thought it's time to share a feeling that has been growing within me in the last 1-2 years.
I have come to think that Bitcoin's top in 2021 was the top of the first Bitcoin grand supercycle. Meaning, a historic wave 5 top in the Eliott wave picture.
Now why would I think such an outrageous thing?
Several things point me to that: 1. In a wave 5, only a few market participants make up most of the gains of the market. In 2021, contrary to 2017/18, only a relatively small percentage of coins were seeing large gains, whereas the majority actually performed quite poorly. Typical in a wave 5. 2. Rising price but declining volume. This makes me believe that the rise in 2023 was not the start of a new impulse, but a corrective move. 3. Macro-economics: The yield curve is insanely inverted, and an un-inversion was historically never a good thing for equity markets. Bitcoin is still very correlated to the US stock market, and so a large stock market crash, would also drag Bitcoin down to lows that most people can't, or rather don't want to imagine. 4. Irrational exuberance: In a historical market cycle top, there is an incredible disconnect between valuations and reality. I think the stock market rally of the last year has shown us that this disconnect is quite insane. There too, only a few big stocks make up the large majority of the total gains. 5. Insane Euphoria regarding halving, ETF, etc.: Far too much Euphoria, marking often local tops. The ETF will start playing a role, but quite slowly, and the halving effect is a lot lower now than in past halvings.
All in all, I think now there is a higher likelihood that something like this could happen. It's important to see that these are probabilities here, but you can check my charts since I started posting in 2014, and I've been a permabull all the time, until early 2022. That's when I started switching bearish at some point, and been so ever since, despite this last runup.
I am not saying that this is going to happen, only that I see a much higher probability now, than at any point before 2021. Just my thoughts here. If such an extreme scenario was to happen, then only if a stock market crash happens. We would go to around the low of wave 4, so around 3000-ish USD, which sounds of course insane now, but it would play out over 2-3 years time. Then we would see the beginning of a new Bitcoin supercycle, which would bring us to several hundred thousand USD.
how to be a clown on Tradingview , why not lower to 50 cents per BTC
kloasjnb
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@jdo85, How to be a clown on Tradingview? By posting comments like you did ...
absansr0093
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Koso sher
MynameisTeo
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I'm here only for the coment's :)) (this is my entertaining, thing :))) and i see people don't understand this it's a real posibilitie, but i don't think it's probable ( POSSIBLE it's not the same with PROBABLE :) ) I was looking at this , some time ago :
Nice one. But I wish to share some thoughts. In the beginning of massive trading exchanges "era", they were pumping fake volumes. It was easy because usdt or busd were not really covered and in the end were endless tokens. So reality was miscalculated in terms of volume amounts. Only price was real. And some of them were saying real volume was 3-4 times lower. How would you think about curve in such realistic developments?
kloasjnb
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Thanks for sharing your interesting views as always