MekongMonkey
Long

Bitcoin bullish into the year end

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Today we saw the same pattern on the weekly chart as what we saw a few days ago on the 3-day chart: a close above the 21 EMA (yellow line), followed by the next candle opening and closing above the 21 EMA . This is, historically, a good reason to be bullish . Furthermore strengthing the bullish case is the stoch %K getting above 20 again. The last time this happened was in the week of February 25 at 3790; this was followed by four months of bullish price action, taking BTCUSD all the way to 13880. Of course, we can't expect history to repeat itself, however, it does provide clues about what might happen. But first, BTCUSD has to take out weekly resistance at around 9500. If that succeeds, a retest of the next resistance at about 11500 is exceptionally likely. This is an area where I would strongly consider profit-taking. If the bulls can take out 11500, the road to 16K and beyond lays wide open.
On the other hand, if BTCUSD slips below the 21 EMA again, we enter the danger zone. I will abandon all bullish scenarios if BTCUSD closes a 12H candle below the resistance line at around 8800.
The future is always uncertain. The goal is to find spots where we can enter trades with the odds in our favor. Right now, it looks like the bulls have the advantage.
Nov 09
Comment: BTCUSD is not looking so hot at the moment. Eyes are on the weekly close; failure to get back above 9000 will invalidate this idea.
Nov 11
Comment: We managed to get that much-desired close above 9000. However, it turned out to be a bull trap. The bears have invalidated this idea.

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