I know it sounds bad but I only trust in my tools... the classical ones and the models.
Bad sign: Multiple divergence on the chart: RSI forming a descending triangle, volumn keeps going down since Jan, MACD shows bearish sign, and of course the 2h triangle we are forming.
Good sign: buyers showing strong power for BTC around 50k. One trillion market cap resistance, which corresponds to price around 53k.
I am having mixed signals here: we know that it will go down, but how far will it go down? Charts shows that it will need a rly big correction (to 20day MA and 21day EMA) and accumulation for us to go 100k, but buyers are very strong in this market cycle, something definitely changed and we can't look exactly for history.
So my guess: go down for 50k, consolidating around 53k, go up and down with multiple wicks and waves below 50day MA, and then parabolic. IMO, wicks would be the best possible scenario to fit status quo..
Plz leave some comments so we can talk about mixed signals.
Comment
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A further leg down but with wicks to 52k, I still didn't see any bottom signal.
@TruePrimeOne, Thank you! I believe that we are due for a red month. but after that I expect a great bounce
rockmancuso
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Great analysis - exactly what I'm seeing. The divergence and the MACD cross on the 1W is a bit scary, and we're seeing some other bearish signals, and it almost looks like a BIT like a larger fractal of the rounded tops we've seen before sudden drops in smaller timescales, but then again buyers are eating up every one of these drops. I think you said it best - mixed signals all around. With the much larger media presence of BTC now and also some of the big players like Venmo jumping in, etc., it's easy to think that maybe "this time is different," but man has that attitude screwed me in the past...lol. This is a bit of a tough one.
likaihu
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@rockmancuso, "a larger fractal of the rounded tops we've seen before sudden drops in smaller timescales" your words are so accurately depicting it, it's just like this!
tbh, saying this with no position, I tend to prefer a big reversal to the upside after this month. I think we can look back into history for answers, not purely emulating it, but adding it as a variable into my "regression model" (Y = X1+X2+...) Historically speaking, having a red month in bull run is very healthy, and probably marks the start of super cycle. But before that, Bitcoin really needs a good rest. we are still very far away from 20week MA (around 44k), and we are in a middle of a bull run, and bitcoin has a lot more exposure (new addresses ATH almost everyday)
So I would like to say that it is, a very unprecedented time lol, I feel happy to witness it all
I also think the reversal you described would be super healthy for the market. We haven't seen a sizable correction for a minute, and agree 1000% that would prep us for takeoff to another ATH. "Bitcoin really needs a good rest" - absolutely agreed! Whatever happens, no doubt it'll be fun to watch 🙂
MikesJakub
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Brilliant idea!
CC_FX
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I agree, it will go down hard within these next two weeks. good work
trickx1
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Good ideas, maybe a bounce near 49,700 to get people long up to 54,500 and then a further drop down. Eventually going down to 34,500 and will probably trade sideways for most of the year.