cheynos
Long

Prediction ETF vs NO ETF (BTC)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello everyone
We’ve got great news today, the sec has announced that they will decide about a BTC-ETF the 10th of August. Here is a short version of my view on the situation. Nothing major has happened yet since my last idea of BTC , 4 days ago. First of all a small view on current situation.

Current situation:
- So we’re still on in the same area between our bottom at 5.7K and our strong resistance at 6.8K. We are now at these price-levels for a month. What does this mean?
o The bears are not strong enough to break down under 5.7K
o The bulls are not strong enough to break through 6.8K
o This could be because it’s summer-time, there are way less trades in summer-time. less volume= less volatility
o This could mean that we’ve now reached our bottom. We’ve never had such a long period between a such small price-difference. The bears are almost all gone.

Situation 1: yes to an ETF!
- Ideal scenario, the market will wake-up again, volume will go up. We will probably break through the resistance level (6.8K) in no time (the same resistance that we are fighting with since 12July).
- The only way is up, the moment we pass the 6.8K level, that’s a buy-sign for me. That means that the bulls take over and that we over won the bears who are defending this level for a month now. We enter the trade zone above 6.8K.
- The next target is 10K. (very short-term)

Situation 2: No ETF
- Worst case scenario, will drop the price massively. I doubt that the bulls are still going to defend the levels at (5.7K-6K) if the SEC failed to launch an ETF .
- The next support-line is at 5K then. (20% down fall)
- Why 5K?
o A lot of great investors have already announced that they will be interested in BTC if the price goes below the 5K. (new volume )
o A lot of shorts will run out at 5K.


Give it a like if you appreciated it
comments and thoughts are always welcome
My orders are my thoughts and are no financial advice!

Comments

can we get source for this sentence: "We’ve got great news today, the sec has announced that they will decide about a BTC-ETF the 10th of August." ? thanks.
+1 Reply
cheynos erelerel
@erelerel, first of all thanks for the comment, here is the link:https://coingape.com/bitcoin-etf-august-10th-revival-of-bitcoin-price/
have a nice day
+1 Reply
erelerel cheynos
@cheynos, thank you :)
Reply
Correct - 5K

Sept/Oct for EFT......
+1 Reply
cheynos Eberzahn
@Eberzahn, hope so, we will see...
Reply
The Federal Register publication only appeared on July 2, meaning the date for a decision can be no sooner than August 16. Even then, the date can be extended if required and even once the eventual date does arrive the SEC can still initiate further proceedings to assist in decision making.
+1 Reply
cheynos radeone
@radeone, yeah sure but this idea was pure hypotetical, I know that such things can have a long run until they decide, appreciate your comment!
Reply
radeone cheynos
@cheynos, just trying to give you the heads up.
+1 Reply
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