On the D1 timeframe, BTC dropped sharply and is now reacting at a major lower support zone. Price swept liquidity and buyers stepped in, and we will have several scenarios:
Scenario 1 (Higher Probability):
- BTC
BTCUSD may still make one more sharp move down. This would likely form a long-wick candle that sweeps below support, similar to the Oct 21 setup. Price could dip into the $80k–$83k zone, grab liquidity, and then bounce.
- From there, BTC could form a double bottom, regain strength, and push higher in a much healthier structure. This kind of move fits a patient, low-risk trading approach.
Scenario 2 (Popular Narrative):
- Many believe BTC already broke the short-term downtrend and is ready to rally. This view is spreading fast across crypto news and social media.
- However, the breakout lacks strong momentum. Recent candles have small bodies, showing hesitation. If BTC reaches the $92k–$94k resistance, rejection is still very possible.
Macro Context Matters: Safe-haven assets like gold and silver remain in strong uptrends. This suggests capital is still favoring safety over high-risk assets like BTC, which supports the pullback-first scenario.
Worst-Case Scenario:
A 2022-style downtrend would require time. In the last cycle, BTC spent around 78 days correcting and distributing after breaking the MA200 before a full bearish phase was confirmed. We are not there yet.
-> Stay patient. If scenario 1 or 2 plays out, there will be opportunity. If not, de-risking later is still an option.
TheCryptoFire
Scenario 1 (Higher Probability):
- BTC
BTCUSD may still make one more sharp move down. This would likely form a long-wick candle that sweeps below support, similar to the Oct 21 setup. Price could dip into the $80k–$83k zone, grab liquidity, and then bounce.- From there, BTC could form a double bottom, regain strength, and push higher in a much healthier structure. This kind of move fits a patient, low-risk trading approach.
Scenario 2 (Popular Narrative):
- Many believe BTC already broke the short-term downtrend and is ready to rally. This view is spreading fast across crypto news and social media.
- However, the breakout lacks strong momentum. Recent candles have small bodies, showing hesitation. If BTC reaches the $92k–$94k resistance, rejection is still very possible.
Macro Context Matters: Safe-haven assets like gold and silver remain in strong uptrends. This suggests capital is still favoring safety over high-risk assets like BTC, which supports the pullback-first scenario.
Worst-Case Scenario:
A 2022-style downtrend would require time. In the last cycle, BTC spent around 78 days correcting and distributing after breaking the MA200 before a full bearish phase was confirmed. We are not there yet.
-> Stay patient. If scenario 1 or 2 plays out, there will be opportunity. If not, de-risking later is still an option.
TheCryptoFire
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.