BTC weakness in not breaking the downward channel - Commentary
It's now the 7th week Bitcoin fails to break the downward channel from it's last all-time high December 2017. Additionally it behaves similar to August 2018 (orange circle) when it was moving sideways while the expectation was that it would "finally" breakthrough . Instead it lost another 50% of it's value. Now it tripled from those lows around $3,000 so I am complaining at a high level here. While Bitcoin is also still not too far off from its stock to flow model it is not a guarantee that Bitcoin could not also differ 50% from it and fall 50% to $6,000 range before shooting up again. Further the hurdle to show strength keeps going down and Bitcoin does no longer need to break $10,000 as a first start to make strong stance; above $9,500 would already be a fantastic start.
What is important then is how do we predict Bitcoin and the crypto markets future value? Statistically this is a very young and immature market. There is obvious value in decentralized finance technology for example, but more often than not this market appears to be a Ponzi scheme. Also do not forget the market capitalization of crypto is at ~$270,236,285,752 only (or already, depending on how you look at it) about 0,76% of U.S. equity market value or about Tesla's market cap. In my view there is no reason for Bitcoin not breaking through and it not doing so is a sign of weakness.
When you can get 8% interest on Euro (EURx to be precise) deposits with NEXO and great interest rates for crypto deposits, why is capital not flooding in? Is is really such a niche market as the market cap may signal and is there not real intrinsic value in the crypto space. Why is everybody okay with ECB and FED super inflating the debt bubble and not receiving any interest on their bank accounts? I can practically already pay with Bitcoin and other crypto assets online. Who needs fiat currency? SO, all that said, what's the hold up or is this a sign of weakness and we are in the hands of the whales trying to multiply their money. This would be then similar to the whales in traditional markets. Just that in traditional markets I can look up the faces of the whales in the Forbes list of billionaires and we all know the power of Black Rock, Vanguard & State Street. The crypto market for this reason may already be just like the traditional markets ruled by those with money and the value then is highly speculative. Let me know that you think!
I still see my scenario 4 and 5 very much possible. After the 7th week of not breaking through I am at best neutral on Bitcoin while noticing that the altcoins are clearly picking up and seemed very much to have started their season.
What is important then is how do we predict Bitcoin and the crypto markets future value? Statistically this is a very young and immature market. There is obvious value in decentralized finance technology for example, but more often than not this market appears to be a Ponzi scheme. Also do not forget the market capitalization of crypto is at ~$270,236,285,752 only (or already, depending on how you look at it) about 0,76% of U.S. equity market value or about Tesla's market cap. In my view there is no reason for Bitcoin not breaking through and it not doing so is a sign of weakness.
When you can get 8% interest on Euro (EURx to be precise) deposits with NEXO and great interest rates for crypto deposits, why is capital not flooding in? Is is really such a niche market as the market cap may signal and is there not real intrinsic value in the crypto space. Why is everybody okay with ECB and FED super inflating the debt bubble and not receiving any interest on their bank accounts? I can practically already pay with Bitcoin and other crypto assets online. Who needs fiat currency? SO, all that said, what's the hold up or is this a sign of weakness and we are in the hands of the whales trying to multiply their money. This would be then similar to the whales in traditional markets. Just that in traditional markets I can look up the faces of the whales in the Forbes list of billionaires and we all know the power of Black Rock, Vanguard & State Street. The crypto market for this reason may already be just like the traditional markets ruled by those with money and the value then is highly speculative. Let me know that you think!
I still see my scenario 4 and 5 very much possible. After the 7th week of not breaking through I am at best neutral on Bitcoin while noticing that the altcoins are clearly picking up and seemed very much to have started their season.