Bitcoin is in a period of consolidation at the bottom of the long-term channel. Movement will seem sideways and down until indicators signal the next wave of adoption. Sentiment will remain low. Recovery will be slow.
We'll bounce between key resistance and support lines for 1 - 5 weeks, ended by a breakout through local resistance by late May. The bottom of the channel has moved down a little, but it's a minor and almost imperceptible change. We have had price discovery at the bottom of a new long-term channel that is less aggressive that the 2016 recovery trend. We may confirm the bottom of the channel at least once more before making substantial moves up later in 2018 or early in 2019.
There is apparent SEC and bipartisan support from the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs indicates long-term US support for Wall Street to develop tools. There is a green light for growth in related and supporting sectors of finance and speculation. It's rumored that a crackdowns on ICOs and altcoin speculation wil kibosh unchecked growth in alt markets. Bitcoin's market domination will likely be confirmed after G20 nations implement effective regulations against rampant gambling and financial tools are developed to short ICOs with leverage.
A : Medium-term consolidation
Resistance to growth remains through February, part of March, and possibly into May. and moderate performance is accompanied by price stability. Two heavy resistance lines are broken before sentiment can return.
B : New ATH sometime between September and February 2019
Heavy resistance is broken--drawn from the 2014 ATH and the January 2018 breakdown from our local ATH—and moderate sentiment keeps bitcoin in a consolidation phase under the previous ATH for many months. A new wave of adoption from new markets is eventually identified. Full capitulation from alt market speculation exposes frivolous Crypto Assets. Government crackdowns and arrest begin to pile up in altmarket ICOs. Public outcry against abuse and fraud triggers international concern.
C :The ascending drawn from the 2013 ATH is difficult to break.
We bounce off the ascending and establish a new ATH between June 2018 and March 2019. The bottom of the channel is retested near the current ATH . Capital flight into Bitcoin from alts will eventually pushes bitcoin through an ascending
Bitcoin's user base rapidly grows. It’s fueled by speculation that institutional adoption and an are on the way. Speculation attracts a new wave of users who are disenchanted with traditional investments. Bitcoin's young male demographic starts to diversify and enter new markets internationally.
Segwit and Lightning adoption demonstrate 100x increase in possible transaction support while significantly decreasing transaction fees. LocalBitcoin processes 15 to 30 million USD in transactions daily. Press praises Bitcoin as a tool ready or nearly ready for “Main Street.” A use case for Lightning in retail businesses is implemented in some markets.
D : Bounce off the top of the new long-term channel by mid 2019
Speculative fever ignites again and Bitcoin hits the top of the long-term channel for the first time since December 2017. Our new ATH is somewhere between 50k and 160k USD/BTC. The correction to the bottom of the channel triggers a fresh wave of obituaries.
Hitting the top of the channel signals a long-term bear market and moves the price into a comparatively moderate range, well under 100K USD. Bouncing off the top of the channel completes before speculation about the halving takes hold of sentiment in early 2020.
By the end of 2019, 1 million USD price targets are commonly issued from established financial institutions in the United States. The halving and its market impact a discussed regularly in mainstream media outlets. Fees are so low that you can still buy a cup of coffee with Bitcoin at the speculative peak.
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