There is a clear supprt at 11K (Bitstamp) and some other exchanges. But if you look at Bitfinex the picture is a bit different. There is however a higher low at 11.000. This is an easy long trade now with a stop about 200 points below the low. For Bitfinex the 10.500 is an important level. There is still allot of weakness in the market, no conviction at all, no real buying volume!! My longer term expectation is a rise towards the 12.500ish, with a max of 12.800. From these levels i will probably open a very big short position because we will probably see another big dump towards the 9K/8K levels. There is a big chance that the market won't even be able to reach the high 12K levels, because it is really struggling. But there is just to much at stake, so i do think some important stakeholders of BTC will try to push it higher in the hope people will follow!
With enough likes/views and new followers, i will post many updates with charts of smaller day trading trades that i do.
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This chart is from Bitfinex, these are the 2 scenarios i think will happen. It is making a bearish flag, wich suggest it will drop much more, but i have seen enough times with BTC that it does not happen. I am already long, and i will add if it drops towards the 11.900.
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Will drop towards the low again, my guess it will form a double bottem there
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I have closed, made a nice profit, i will wait for new better signs
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It could still go higher from here, but i find it to risky and am satisfied with the profit
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I am shorting it now, small position with a close stop
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I am out
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This picture is way i am having second doubts, the highs are slitely higher and getting lower on the longer time frame, first small win would be getting above 11.720, a big win would be the 12.000
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I am shorting it another round, small position with a close stop, the highs on the 1min chart are getting less higher
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It is staying close to the 11.700 and is not getting sold big, so chances are increasing that it will break through that resistance, above 10.700 i will close my short position with a minimal loss.
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There it is, Spoofy also knew this resistance needed to be taken out LOL, hopefully the doors are open to 12.500+
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The difference between Bitfinex and the others is much smaller this time, that is a bullish sign, other attemtps to get higher, Bitfinex look like it was pulling the other down.I have mentioned this a few times the last days, differences were sometimes 400/500 points, now it's only 100 points. Something to keep in mind :)
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Wow what a ride, first sign was the break of 11.700 with volume, The rest was hyper speed again, nothing we have not seen yet. Now it has almost reached it terget, normally after price action like this, it's not the top, it will probably go slowly sideways and up. Moments like these one should not forget his plan. 12.500ish was our target, so closing the last longs and starting to get ready to build up short positions. This short trade will be for a longer ride, If possible i normally try to open them on 4 different prices levels. I would like to see it not going past the 12.800, 13.000/13.200 is a maximum for the bearish scenario i have been talking about
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Something similar like this is what i mean with slowly sideways and up
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First ones in at 12.600
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Second in at 12.700
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As i predicted yesterday, slowly sideways and up. It's stronger than the previous pump, but this could very well be the top, it's normally not that easy, that it turns around at this obvious point, with all those resistance lines. The 12.800 is a clear resistance, so it wont break easy. There is still an option for it to make a big H&S with the neckline now at 12.300 and the top around 13.200,
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So the 13K has been seen, there is a chance now, that the top has been set! 13.200 is also stil, what i mentioned yesterday, to form a H&S. It is hanging around the highs, that is a strong sign. It has made a tripple top at the 13.000 level, untill now it is still forming a bullish upwards triangle, that could also bring us to 13.500, but for now, i expect a top form around these levels, to make a new big drop back to the 9K lows and maybe even lower. I have started to open shorts from 12.600 12.700 yesterday and have added every 100 points higher, also at 13.000. I will continue to add up to 13.200. I will have a big short position, but divided at all those prices, BTC has surprised me to many times to have a position that's to big. Money managment is to important to stay truly focused on the trades and not on the money!
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looks like a small wedge, could make another upspike before dropping below the 12K
Thanks for the updates ! What do you think is the target for the next short? Also, do you think this is a deeper correction on a bullish rally? or is this the beginning of the bear market.. ?
botje11
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@Aamir66, Your welcome, i have mentioned my levels in the update, i have been talking about 12.500/12.800 a few days already, because of that spike up yesterday i think 13K and maybe even 13.200, to form a 1000 points H&S. My view? For now i think BTC will never see a new ATH again, but things can always chance ofcourse. So i think this is the beginning of the bear market rally
josephtse
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New analysis - due to government shutdown, it is possible for BTC to rally to $13,400 to $13,800 range. But for sure, $13,800 has major resistance on all timeframes. Do open too big a short here, countertrend rally not over yet, and may not be until Sunday. May be safer to wait for $13,000 range to open shorts.
botje11
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@josephtse, Thanks for the advice and update, I never get in over my head, a big position is still a few % of the total. You dont want to be short in a rally like yesterday, luckily i had a small long postion :). I am always aware of the manipulation (or the pumpers as you call them). I have mentioned that also a few times, the stakes are to high for them to let it drop below the 12K. It could very well get pushed above the 13K, but i dont think it's unlimited. I always trade in waves, at least part of the position.I leave some for the complete ride (like the ride from the 9.400 to 12.600. And like now i have already closed a few at 12.300 because of some trading signs i see.
What about the USA shutdown? Do you have a link or something? I was wondering what caused that big rally
josephtse
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USA government shutdown had a lot to do with the rip up. I still with your analysis, that top of this wave is $12,800, and good to open short there. Still always, be careful. The pumpers are out in full force!!!
Lyptus
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I am long here but ready to sell if things go south.