This is my first article here. I hope everyone will like it and I am very much looking forward for comments from people who could give a data driven prove to support or deny my scenarios.
Recently there has been more and more conversations in regards "Will Tax Day cause a surge". Thomas Lee with similar articles articles state that there will be a huge price surge up.
My technical analysis shows that at the moment we are at the peak of bull-ish cycle and there should be another shoulder of price rising up and then the cycle should reverse into bear-ish cycle with price pushing down. However if "experts" are correct, there will be a major disruption to current cycles and new cycles will take time to establish.
Therefore, the question remains - will the price surge up or drop down? Leave your thoughts and models in the comments bellow.
Happy Tax Day!
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2018-04-18, day after "Tax Day". US opened with *drums* ... Nothing! #False"experts" #MissedOpportunity
@ghosty25, it seems that sideways is exactly the way it goes :D
#PowerOfAFewWhoCanPumpAndDump
aplhowarth
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I don't know but its an interesting thought. Problem is if that happens there's gonna be a big ol' headline out about how necessary these regulations are, which will cause the price to probably drop back to below where they started
DataMoney
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@aplhowarth, if this would escalate into price surge, any waves afterwards only push the price up for a week or two! Besides a lot of people pro regulations anyway. The question remains why US market have not reacted to this impulse at all? Are they waiting or missing out on the opportunity?
aplhowarth
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@Dovydas_M, kay, but what about five weeks after that? The I hope you're not one of those people who are pro regulation...
DataMoney
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@aplhowarth, good questions my friend! In my opinion there are multiple factors at once that influence all cryptos prices and volumes. With current change volumes every day there is almost impossible to have a single "thing" that will influence cryptos prices and/or volumes for 5 weeks or more. Simply almost impossible...
If you have any analysis or data to prove me wrong, I am very much interested to see it!
Now in regards of regulations - I think it is very complex question. In short, YES I am pro regulations. But this answer will mislead you!
So how is it? I am pro liberty, access, ease of use and transparency of BlockChain and therefore Crypto currencies. However, I am against fraud, "dark web" activities and fraudulent/reckless ICO's that waist people time and money!
So #BlockChain is an amazing revolution in my opinion. It should automate ledgers, transactions, banking, remove any middlemen and make finances cheaper and easy to access to everyone! However, there must be transparency enforcement mechanisms (ideally automated ones) that allow to verify any identity or any transaction and eliminate any fraudulent or manipulative activities.
More, since it's very mathematical and computerized, BOT's and similar activities in cryptos should be banned! This again takes power from "average Joe" and gives huge power to tech savy or large players... Again destroying the whole purpose of cryptos! This is number one reason why Bitcoin is not adopted as it was supposed to be! Banks, whales and bots just made it into another gimmick :(
aplhowarth
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@Dovydas_M, haha, when I discovered bitcoin nearly 10 years ago as a student I knew it as "just those things I can use to buy drugs without having to put my life in danger by hanging out with criminals". The possibility of anonymity is a very important thing to preserve (and by the way, would be impossible to remove no matter how hard a government tries, people are just too clever and governments too big and cumbersome). The fact that governments think they have to right to tell me what I can do with my life to me means they need to be completely irradiated in their current form.
But on a less ideological level, I think any regulations put in place by the current establishment will be heavy-handed and ham-fisted because they will attempt to overstep what can actually be done because they don't understand it. I'm happy to pay tax on income and purchases (as long as the mining fee is taken into account and subtracted) but that's it. Any more will rightly be utterly rejected by the new economy and it will simply mean that those countries with the worst regulations will be left behind by the new decentralized economy this is one thing I hope that the UK doesn't lead the world in, because It's going to be a disaster
aplhowarth
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@Dovydas_M, Sorry, ERADICATED. not Irradiated lol. that escalated quickly