Peymana71

BTC Realtime Analyse #1

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello all my friends,

First of all i need to thanks all of you for your great feed backs and lovely comments and messages after my first serious work on TV.when i started i didn't really know if you like my style or not but i figured out that my style in analyse all micro waves and patterns in short time frames really can help you to learn more and trade base on those waves.It made me happy when i saw 12 people made money with that style and that happiness really made me satisfied.Many of you my friends wanted a TELEGRAM channel to notify easier and i will create one in new week.what you need to know its that i work as a Graphic Designer in my day time and Trading in my second job that have better income from my first job but i struggling for time and always searching for more time because of that it's little hard for me to update in several apps like telegram and twitter but i will make one and when it reach a good number in followers,i will start to publish there too.
Second,i must open this for those that not read my last TA.Realtime analye its a new style that focus on short time frames and finding patterns in them.with this style we can earn from little waves by swing trading and after that learn more by seeing different patterns and sign in day instead of one week or more.we will mixing MACD ,Ichimuko, RSI and classic charting to find answers in this style.
So let's back to the chart now:
We had 3 Scenario in our last TA here that 2 of them survived.we are stick to red scenario now but yellow one is in the play and we have not any sign to announce that one failed.for now we will continue Red Scenario that i draw it here.Red Scenario consist of channel that i draw and 2 triangle that i draw with dotted line.for now it's our long term trend line that we need to keep it live but as i said before we have many limits that make us doubt in it.this triangle formation from months ago can not have no meaning.for now it made for us two turning point.one at 8560 and another at 9060.if we break this limits our triangles will join in history.but don't forget our channel roof around 10500.it will biggest limit in our way to reach our ATH 1.95% but maybe our channel is not as strong as we think!!!Yeah that's can't true,every channel or trend line need 3 impact point to make it creditable and we have three too.because of that it can be easy to reach that point and break it,but for now let's see at past and not future.
As you see we are so close to break downward channel and after that we need to test it as a support then continue our new upward trend.for now we close 2 candle in 4hr time frame above EMA50 and it's a good sign,we need to test it as support and by that make a bounce over the downward trendline .
We have an almost crossover signs in MACD D time frame it can easily move us to 8200-8500.
We are above of ichimuko cloud in shirt time frames and near to break it in 4HR time frame.again it's good buy signal always.for those that did not entered with us from $7100 better to wait for break out and confirmation now,we are in little risky situation.
I will update this idea as soon as find new sign.
For now,Good Luck my Friends
Best Regards
Peyman A
Comment: As i mentioned in my last idea this iH&S can move us over the downward trendline but we have many mixed signals now like MACD 1H but it can change quickly.
Comment: There is a GREAT WAR between price and resistance around 7660,every attempt failed till now but it will break soon.
Comment: HI my friends
As you saw our iH&S worked and push us over the trendline,for now we need to test it as a support and use it as a new launch pad for reaching upper targets.i moved my stop to 7549 now and working on a new chart to show you pass we need to walk on.
Comment: As you can see in this chart we made a break out from black downward channel but we are still in rising wedge that we started from 7060.this wedge is not very reliable and changed many times during this wave but still is a rising wedge(blue).if we don't break it to up or we move between its limits(black arrows) we make it creditable and it will push us down finally to test support line(black).but we can see it in a different view.in middle of our wave we made that wedge wider and by our last price movements we can draw a channel(red dotted line),if we move by this channel it's a better sign and will move us easier to over target around 8500(red arrows).we have another possibility that is a super bullish one,now we touch our wedge roof,we can break it to upward and then test it as a support and continue over way up,this way can move us easier to upper targets that is around 9000.
we need to now bearish scenario too.if we test 7650 as support and break it down it means our break out to 7750 was a fake break out and then we must hold 7450,if that break too means our downward trend continue and maybe it push us lower 7000.
So be careful and monitor trend for signs i said.if i find anything in indicators or chart i will update this.
Comment: So we have a bearish signal in MACD short time frames that will move us lower to test last resistance as support.
Comment: As you can see we made a falling wedge on the top of our bull flag but little soon to call it Falling Wedge.maybe it can make our upward swing after we touch Rising wedge bottom(blue line).
i will update it as soon as i see a new sign
Comment: As you can our little bullish wedge is still in play and hold,i think it move us to 7650 and then make another bounce to 7800.bht is soon to count on it.
Comment: So we made a drop out from this wedge but after that as i mentioned before BTC quickly bounce back to the wedge,this made that break out a FAKE one but we can always find signs of weakness in this kind of break outs.= or sometimes they just occur to active stops and BOOM.
Comment: Same attempt but in opposite side,if this movements continue,makes our wedge wider and more unreliable but what you need to know is that in short time frames this formations are always unreliable and all second can change to regular channel instead of wedge and because of that you must not count on them.
Comment: Just easily can turn to the blue one.
Comment: It's really soon to publish this again but it can be THE WAY.
Comment: BOOOM,It's worked mates.now our wedge and iH&S both confirmed almost and reached to their targets for a sec but after bounce we made an impact to huge resistance,for now we testing the neckline and our wedge as a support for new bounce.waiting to full confirmation.
Comment: So as you watched they Failed badly.not meaning that that formations was wrong,they were totally correct and both of them started to worked but their attempt became failed.I want to share little with you to understand situation better but i tell it as a Metaphor to understand it easier:
All Traders an Analysts must know this,Chart its like a Battlefield between Price and Resistance/Supports.in this war always price attack to them.Price using Patterns as a Weapon and make them ready with its movements.After they were ready price start to attack but you need to understand this reality that all attacks can't be successful.most of time they defeat by Resistance/Supports.Weopons was ok but didn't have enough POWER to defeat resistance /supports.Hope Understand my purpose to tell you this.so come back to chart.
So we lost our position and after a failed testing of little wedge we dropped to testing lower grounds again.that moves reached us to point that we pridicted last day in our chart with red arrow.by this move we finally reached to intersection point between our old downward channel and wedge that started from 7050.we are now testing them as a support.it's a really important moment for BTC to decide what want to do.As we said before BTC can move toward our black downward channel to 7512 and after that change our wedge to a simple channel or turn back to wedge at this point to earn more credit for it and just make it little wider.you can see in below our yesterday chart again to remember better.
Comment: Guys,Check this just for Awareness.soon to count on it.
Comment: Still i have hope to see something like this.if it come true,way way better than the Wedge that we stick to that frome 7050.
Comment: For your Awareness,if we can't back again over the downward trend,we will make another swing down in our old downward channel.which kind a movement,soon to say.
Comment: Till now bear flag formation continue PERFECT.
Comment: now we reached our first target.we need to hold this level or dotted line and move toward arrow.
Comment: As we said price reach to our dotted line and no little calm down and looks find a more strong support there.I see a good signs in MACD and RSI in short time frames to 1HR and mix signs in long time frames but soon to judge on them.for now we need to make another attempt to climb up with a bounce or just moving up toward the black arrow till indicators fully recover and we make a full correction.hope it's work and we climb up again.
Comment: Another attempt to break down,many sign of weakness here in most indicators.watching closely for a result.
Comment: As you can see we holding our support and climbing up slowly and moving right toward as my arrow.i see signs that i will share with you when i find more validity in them.
Comment: More signs here,Maybe it can turn the page.
Comment: So it's worked and shaped smaller than what i expected but it worked.now it need to hold this level.
Comment: After a successful iH&S we made an impact to our downward trend line and it shows as a strong resistance and rejected btc.we are about to test neckline as a support now.
Comment: As it seems our neckline support break almost.we made a triangle formation with our downward line and trend line bottom line that made from week ago(red dotted line).this formations that is not Ascending/Descending triangle are not reliable formations and usually have result in consolidation of the market trend.so it can have both possibility,bounce or drop.so be careful.
Comment: Hi guys
So we drop as i illustrated and sent our channel to history,now we are making another Rising wedge in our bear flag in short time frames.as you see it can turn to a H&S and move us lower.but if you zoom our a little a look at chart in longer time frames can see that we are near to forming falling wedge too.
but many things here scared me.as you can see in chart below if we can't break limits of this wedge we will trigger a big H&S that can push us again down but maybe our wedge support can hold to drop more.
As one of my friends mentioned here in comment section we reached good retracement lvl but if this movement meant to be a Correction we can even go lower to 61% or 78% fib by this wedge.
for now market turn to very unpredictable situation again,but i feel our reversal is very close to us.
Good Luck
Comment: Sorry i sent Second chart wrong.this is Falling Wedge i mentioned.
Comment: These efforts by BTC are just Vain.if we go up from here finally get back by this Head and Shoulder.another touch of 7350.soon.
Comment: Some good attempt and signs here,made our H&S almost dead.there is a great war between resistance and price.if we goes down from here it isn't cause by a H&S because we made a red shoulder that have a higher top then head.
Comment: Boom,here we are.we came back to game now exactly at intersection that i mentioned yesterday.we need to hold this lvl first and try to break blue line to run from big H&S formation that i said here today.
Comment: We need fo run from this formation by bounce over 7760.
Comment: So we break ichimoku cloud i 4HR strongly and have a really good signal in many indicators now.we need to break this blue wedge and make that H&S off.
Comment: Now i moved up my stop to 7470.
Comment: Come on give us a higher high.taht H&S really a can trigger any minute.
Comment: BTC Continuing the Fight with resistance here.maybe some sideway and more volatility and good actions.
Comment: Moment of truth,we are about to break Wedge or shape the R HEAD.As i expect Boring sideway guest btc last hours and now it need to show us what gonna happen???
Comment: Thanks god that wedge dead almost but we need to make a higher high yet and make that Ugly H&S off,too.we climbing up slowly and have great MACD signal in all time frames.it's close to make a bounce and higher high.i push my stop higher around 7530.
Comment: nope,it dropped exactly when all signs was good,but fight with resistance took much time.i cancel my stop and add a lower point around 7495 again.
Comment: So H&S forming fianally.hope supports hold btc.
Comment: 5 hours ago i checked all indicators and charts and all was perfect but suddenly market dropped in a sec.that's market manipulation,they did that to take all stops and full BTC fuel with that.now we backed in game.hope this time byc can make a higher high.
Comment: Now you can see another side of it.all longs and shorts destroyed with this 2 action.
DO NOT TRADE WITH LEVERAGE.
Comment: I will collect an idea about MARKET MANIPULATION and all side of it soon.an article that you never saw anywhere,you need to introduce with BIG and LITTLE players.
Comment: Maybe this time...
Comment: Triangle formation WIN but resistance up there WIN too.Price is Still in fight.by now not bad but can be better.need to hold triangle bottom and continue moving forward.
Comment: This bull flag is still good and some vol can easily push it higher.Hope this continue in this way instead of sideway and finally drop again.this fractals are biggest sign of unhealthy markets.last bounce just made with 1000 BTC in bitfinex and i sure that amount sold after that and market hold in this lvl just by little players.any sell/bought in that size can change everything.
Comment: Another triangle formation(orange dotted lines),almost,i guess it help btc to make a higher high finally but we will reach that buy more down_sideway_up again.i see signs for little drop on MACD short frames but not much i think.
Comment: Remember that MACD short frames recover easier by sideways.
Comment: Still continue
Comment: So we made a little bearish triangle with our sideway and continue bigger triangle too(orange).we will drop to bigger triangle bottom soon.
Comment:
Comment: First Move ==> DONE
Comment: So,finally that bearish triangle worked and btc dropped tp bigger triangle/trend line support as i predicted.now it's need to stay above that support and retest little black triangle support as a resistance.if we go lower our last bullish scenario will gone too.
Comment: As i expected bulls start to test upper resistance and try to break it now.we can make a sideway here and then break it or drop a little and then try again to break it.
Comment: So as you can see we droped out after break the resistance and it can't hold us as a support.after that bullish momentum gone for a bit and now al indicators trying to recover and attack the RES again.again say this,it's possible to recover by sideway action or drop more to lower SUP and full BTC Fuel for another try.but please consider my bearish Scenarios that i published here last nigh.
Comment: Again guys,this is just an RAW idea.if we gonna go up from here it will because of this CUP & HANDEL.but don't consider it now.if i find any logical prove for it i will publish it as a new idea.
Comment: So as i said we dropped a bit and after that break that resistance again but AGAIN full of weakness.now we testing it as support and i have not much hope to go upper soon,in the best scenario with go sideway above this SUP and after recover bounce again to orange triangle RSE.
Reason all these SUP break easy is that there is not enough Volume to confirm and hold them.just one big player enter trade and buy 1000 BTC and make it bounce and after sell higher BTC just drop again.there are just a few little players that enter trade after bounce by FOMO and loose and loose and loose again,always.
Guys at least don't use leverage on this stupidity risks.
Comment: Forgot to add this,we have bullish reversal sign in 4hr MACD.if this sign turn to a crossover can push us to 8000.i will notify as soon as find new signs.
last day drop to the channel bottom coincided with break in/out of Ichimoku cloud.that prove our good support on that area too and now we are above of ichi in 4hr.we are now above EMA50 too.break of that support will bring us to bearish scenarios that i posted 2 days ago here.
In RSI 4hr we recovered above of trend line and closing to overbought area but i don't trust in it usually,just like to use it for finding hidden divergences and swing trade in short time frames.but for now it's not bad and there is not any sign of hidden bearish div,yet
Good Luck
Comment: Hey Guys,i really didn't want to post this possible H&S because of many failed H&S and iH&S that we saw in last weeks and i tried to explain our bearish risks with another logic and explanations 2 days ago but when one of my dear entourage here asked me about that i decided to share it with all of you.if we can't hold our trendline and drop from it like my mid-term bearish scenario or as you can see in this new chart,break the neckline(dotted black line),we will trigger a H&S that move us to 7300-400 area again.
Again,it's soon to count on it but if we break the neckline and fail to test it as resistance and break it, you can short btc with full caution and stop around 7612.
Comment: Yes,it's a odd H&S with rising neckline but it's possible and my work here to inform you about all possibilities.
Comment: Again Volume in this H&S formation don't confirm it but in markets and Technical Analyse always we see things that did not written in the books and somethings just related to experience of learning from market odd behaviors.
Comment: Hi guys,what the hell BTC started.thanks god that one of my dearest followers asks me to show all of you this H&S,thanks god that i informed you in right time before the disaster.
So as you saw we dropped out of channel and important support @7400 and now we closing to the large channel and old dotted line that i gave you in my last BTC TA.we need to see a bounce back to 7400 area if we won't see we will go lower for 7050.
Comment: Look at the giant.we have to hold this support if it break we will face with yellow scenario(last btc analyse)again and 4000 area.
Comment: It was Yellpw Scenario.now we add another hit to triangle and almost break it.
Comment: And now it is it.
Comment: These are can be our new channels and dotted lines can be reversal points.
Comment: So after few month finally our huge triangle breaks now,we need to see what happen after and how much it can push btc lower.
Comment: Guys,we have an update here,please join me there and like it if it help you.

Comments

What a Amazing work!
+1 Reply
Peymana71 cpiljoo
@cpiljoo, ;)) hope it hold
Reply
I admire you for taking so much time and effort for posting your analysis and even responding to many posts your followers make. You have great skills and personality. I always wait eagerly for your next post. Thank you for sharing your knowledge with others.
+1 Reply
@Rafal8, You're welcome my friend.you made me happy by your kind comment.hope can continue this well.
+1 Reply
Peymana71 congrats for your TA style which combines thorough research and great presentation (your day job must have helped) with realistic comments, unlike a lot here on TA who just take one side at a time.

I suggest you add larger movements that you think are very likely to happen with RR analysis. If all works, I can see you joining a hedge fund as trader!

Now a dedicated follower!
+1 Reply
Peymana71 polyglot
@polyglot, You're welcome my friend,glad to see this style helped and many here interested in it.Thanks for your opinion,i will try to expand my work day by day.Good Luck for now
Reply
hahaha, I was just about to tell you that yellow scenario has already been broken :)

$4000 BTC is honestly still to high for me. I don't get why BTC is worth anything at this point in time.
Why is a coin that is so useless worth so much when there are other coins that have real use and real potential to change the work out there that are worth sub $100's.
Blockstream killed BTC when it took command of BTC's dev team.

In my honest opinion, BTC is has all the characteristics of a coin that should be worth less than $1.
Reply
Peymana71 dream300zx