BTCUSD : fresh scenario. What to watch

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi guys,

To follow up my others post where i stated that 4.3k was an interesting zone.

A rule of EWT is Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond

Scenario A is base on the 1.618. You can see in the original post that i mesured the C at 1.618 which gives us a stop where we are (which indeed stopped at 1.618)

The 5 impulses waves that makes C waves would be then this :

Giving us the rebound here :


Scenario B involve that the count of C is more like that

Final count :


Trade active: Scenario B in the zone :
Trade active: 4H is so deep that even if 4H MACD keep climbing every negative histogram gonna reuslt in a dip. Overall I think that 3k gonna the bottom for now. We should see a recovery the 3rd Déc. as CME BTC futures start and It correlate with nice price entry for long position if we see 3k.

We might see some green momentum at the end of the week. For now, 4H is so deep that It doesnt satisfy me to enter for now.

Comment: the fifth sems too short. So i will stay on the side for now. Wave 1 and 3 are equal on the fibo perspective so im waiting for the wave 5 to get to the same extension as wave 1 and 3. We have a nice support there also :

Trade active: CME BTC futures end the 30th of Nov. which normally big whale re-bought their short margin to pay the settlement for the current month. Next month they will borrow USD to short or long which is probably more a long position they will adopt.

CME BTC futures started the 17 déc. when BTC started to drop. CME BTC futures are close in january, they re-open the first Monday of Feb. Thats when BTC jumped from 6k to 12k.
Trade closed: target reached: last update target reached
Hi Simon...i got out completely a couple days ago just barely before the dump really got going....whew....I'm inclined to favour your scenario B. That's what i came up with also... BTC to 4000 is likely, 3500 is possible, and dont rule out possibility of 1500.
SimonMercier hairycanary
@hairycanary, nothing is sure yet. but yeah scenario B looks better as a 1-5. Im thinking on the other hand with all this volume how many sellers left. I guess not that much
hairycanary SimonMercier
@SimonMercier, Hey Buddy, i think still many weak hand hodlers out there, barely hangin in, they will dump if another dump comes and scares them...they will cash out for xmas gift giving burden..especially the married ones. L.O.L
SimonMercier hairycanary
@hairycanary, monthly Cboe BTC futures expire 17 Déc. and monthly CME BTC futures expire the 28 déc.

just look this year when CMe futures opened the 17 déc and re opened 03 déb. ;)

This year we saw swing at the beginning of each start of CME futures and little swing mi-motnhly for the Cboe expiration
SimonMercier SimonMercier
@SimonMercier, CMe futures opened the 17 déc and re opened 03 feb*
hairycanary SimonMercier
@SimonMercier, dang it, man...good observation..will watch here or maybe pm u at tg...yeah, those could be influential dates