Friends, Traders, Gentlemen and women, welcome to some thoughts on Bitcoin. Today, I want to go over some thoughts on Bitcoin. Everywhere I read people are saying BTC is going to the moon. There are moon projections all over and some of them are quite good. But will it moon this soon? and if it does, why?
I am playing Devil's advocate here to every single moon post(there have been a lot!) and want to lay out some possibilities for BTC. Of course crypto never seems to go quite as planned but this will give us some guidelines to different scenarios and how thing will play out.
1. Volatile Growth Scenario - We launch upwards to 15k or even higher. Doing this will result in a lot of buyers and sellers constantly battling it out and bitcoin will ultimately go higher but expect a lot of volatility in doing so. If you look at the circle comparison I drew before the last run, we get some volatility and ultimately stay flat before we really start to move up. This would coordinate with a positive MACD, even though it's weakening. RSI has many times before been irrelevant as price moves up. fundamentally there has been plenty going on to lead to a high growth scenario.
2. Slow Growth Scenario - I feel this would be a healthier version for Bitcoin to follow. Lets first look at some technicals on why this could happen. Volume - It's gone up a lot and a lot of people have bought in at 6,500 or higher. The ones that bought at the 3.5k area are up 100%+. 100%+ is a really good return. We have already seen some profit taking and if more people continue to do, we could get a move down. Miners and other places that need to keep the lights on will have to sell at these levels. RSI has created a divergence on the weekly. Does this hold any credence or does it get ignored? As mentioned above, MACD is softening.
Where does Libra fit into all of this? I feel it splits these 2 scenarios, either people will buy in BTC a lot now and drive it up, or wait as time gets closer to see what happens. Whether you hate Libra or not, it's going to change the landscape of things quite significantly. Libra will bring crypto awareness to the masses as time gets closer to it's launch.
Risk/Reward ratio: If these 2 scenarios are presented for us in which we either go to BTC 20k or BTC 5k. We have a 100% upside and 50% downside. A 2:1 risk/reward ratio. Is that something you take right now? A question to ask yourself when taking a position right now in BTC and crypto in general. As you know, I am neutral and I am waiting for things to develop
A couple of things to add. From what I've heard (4 months ago), the break even mining cost for BTC is around $3100 in the U.S.. If it falls lower than that then the American miners may shut down. But most miners are in China where electricity rates are cheaper so they may be able to survive a lower price.
The best theory I heard for a pullback comes from TradingShot who has shown that after several BTC bear markets (3 or 4), the price usually pulls back 40% when the Fib Retracement hits 0.382 during the recovery phase. Guess where we are now in the Fib Retracement for the 2018 bear market? Yup, 0.382. I personally won't say for 100% certainty that we will get a 40% pullback, but I'm leaning towards 50:50. The author states we may hit 10k before we pull back. Will we get a 40% pullback? I hope so. I can short it going down and then ride it back up. Will it happen? Maybe. I'd give it the same odds as flipping a coin. I'm not depending on it to occur, but I will be ready for it and I won't be reacting like a deer in the headlights wondering what is going on if I see a major price drop occurring. It happened several times in the past and it could happen again within a few weeks. If the article is correct, I have a reasonable expectation how far the price will drop and how long it will last.
Libra coin is going to be launched in 2020, so it won't affect the price of BTC any time soon. But it will make people who have been living under a rock, know that crypto currencies do indeed still exist, so that is a plus. Libra coin will likely be the Internet coin for the big players: Facebook, Google, Youtube, Twitter, Amazon, etc.. They are going to create their own currency, which they can control of course. Bad for us, good for them. A lot of hype will be going into promoting Libra coin. It is of course a crap coin, but FB, YT, Twitter, Google users won't know any better. The main purpose of Libra will be to power the new Internet monetary system and to eat fiat currencies. Say goodbye to MC/Visa/Paypal. If I had stock in these companies, I would sell them along with bank stocks. They are going extinct like the dinosaurs they are.
BlurShines
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@BDG, sorry but You are full of abject conjecture .... There will be no goodbye to MC/Visa/Paypal, just as fiat currency will continue to flourish.... That said, Btc and others on blockchains will play a huge role in the future and will evolve together with what already exists.... online Commerce didn't replace bricks-and-mortar Commerce nor will any one thing or technology cause a complete dissolution of another...
"There will be no goodbye to MC/Visa/Paypal, just as fiat currency will continue to flourish.".
I disagree. Crypto currencies are faster, cheaper and more efficient than credit cards. I'm a credit card merchant. We get hit with 2.5% to 3.5% fees for every transaction. Plus there are yearly fees to pay. When people start using crypto currencies for payments, (Dash, LTC, etc.), the credit cards will die off. Look at Kroger's who stopped accepting Visa cards. Walmart had stopped accepting Visa in some countries because of their excessive fees. When everyone has a crypto wallet, Visa, MC and Paypal are history.
"online Commerce didn't replace bricks-and-mortar Commerce"
Of course they did. Online commerce had a detrimental effect on many brick and mortar stores. When was the last time you rented a movie at Blockbuster? Oh yeah, I forgot. Netflix and online movies put them out of business. Why? Because Netflix was Cheaper, Faster and More Efficient than going to Blockbuster to look for a movie and returning it the next day. Remember all the late fees you had to pay because you didn't return them on time? Not so with Netflix. Blockbuster became a dinosaur.
When was the last time you bought a CD at a music store like HMV? Oops. iTunes and streaming music services like SiriusXM have put them out of business. Why? Downloading music is Cheaper, Faster and more efficient than traveling to a brick and mortar music store where they have limited selection. Music stores are dinosaurs.
How about ToysRUs? Been there lately? Who is going to buy a board game when you can download games on your iPhone or Android phone for free? Why is ToysRUs extinct? Because downloading games from the Internet is Faster, Cheaper and more Efficient than a brick and mortar stores.
Let's not forget Amazon and its domination over conventional brick and mortar stores. It is even giving Walmart major problems. The behemoth Amazon is winning. Why? Because it is more efficient and cheaper than going to a brick and mortar store. Plus it has a far better selection. The only downside is you have to wait a day or two to get your item. Big deal.
Fiat money is going away. It won't be around in 10 years time. Why? Because crypto currencies are Cheaper, Faster and More Efficient than fiat. You will be your own bank with your wallet on your smart phone. All payments will be done using some form of crypto currency. Cash is dead.
BlurShines
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Thanks for your analysis.... what is absolutely clear is that no one has any clue of what will happen midterm with btc..... it has thwarted literally everyone's projections over and over again for the past 18 months..... what we all know though is that long-term trend is up
@BlurShines, Really doesn't have to, and since you just said that it will probably put in a new low. Good news is bad news in BTC world
Amjadsid
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i dont think price can continue upside frm here(9.6-10.2k max) : up wave length for monthly and weekly over here:up-wave time left 2,3 more months( in only monthly)... so price need to move DOWN FIRST in order to go UP Or waste all the down wave time of WEEKLY standing here... lets c
DACapitalTrading
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nice description! Keep it up, follow us aswell mate :)
Jocoin
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10k level is a do or die for btc, here is why:
BMLemon
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I wonder if FBcoin is going to be stable, they must have an inclining towards a bearing market.
The best theory I heard for a pullback comes from TradingShot who has shown that after several BTC bear markets (3 or 4), the price usually pulls back 40% when the Fib Retracement hits 0.382 during the recovery phase. Guess where we are now in the Fib Retracement for the 2018 bear market? Yup, 0.382. I personally won't say for 100% certainty that we will get a 40% pullback, but I'm leaning towards 50:50. The author states we may hit 10k before we pull back. Will we get a 40% pullback? I hope so. I can short it going down and then ride it back up. Will it happen? Maybe. I'd give it the same odds as flipping a coin. I'm not depending on it to occur, but I will be ready for it and I won't be reacting like a deer in the headlights wondering what is going on if I see a major price drop occurring. It happened several times in the past and it could happen again within a few weeks. If the article is correct, I have a reasonable expectation how far the price will drop and how long it will last.
Libra coin is going to be launched in 2020, so it won't affect the price of BTC any time soon. But it will make people who have been living under a rock, know that crypto currencies do indeed still exist, so that is a plus. Libra coin will likely be the Internet coin for the big players: Facebook, Google, Youtube, Twitter, Amazon, etc.. They are going to create their own currency, which they can control of course. Bad for us, good for them. A lot of hype will be going into promoting Libra coin. It is of course a crap coin, but FB, YT, Twitter, Google users won't know any better. The main purpose of Libra will be to power the new Internet monetary system and to eat fiat currencies. Say goodbye to MC/Visa/Paypal. If I had stock in these companies, I would sell them along with bank stocks. They are going extinct like the dinosaurs they are.