BTCUSD update: Gyration leads to all time highs once again. As this market is pushing higher, it is still within the reversal zone. The swift pullback from 8315 to 7760 in a matter of hours is a reminder of how thin the market is at these levels and how high the risk of retrace is. I will explain.
Thin markets are markets that move. Thin refers to the lack of volume that often gets in the way and makes a market sluggish. Thin markets can be good when they are in your favor, but not so good when you need to get out. The 550 point gyration shows how fast things can change in this market.This type of noise can fake out many traders both long and short, that is why it is so important to have a agile mindset and be prepared for anything.
Whatever the reason behind that move was, the market shrugged it off and now making new highs, but it is not out of the clear. The chances of a bearish reversal are high in this zone. Which means if you are long, take the profit while you can, and if you are looking to get short, it is in a convenient spot but the structure just isn't there yet.
In my previous report I wrote about waiting for a bearish reversal structure like a double top or lower high on a larger time frame. At the moment, even though this market is on a new high, it is in the convenient position to present a reversal. The trigger is the break of the 8050 low. Why 8050? It is the low of an inside bar on this time frame. The low of the current candle (8187 once it is closed) will also serve as a short trigger. In order for these levels to be valid, price needs to decline off the current high, quickly and paint an upper wick. If none of this bearish price action that I am describing occurs, then it is NOT a short, especially if the 8500 level is taken out.
What I just described is an example of what a short looks like on a day trade time frame. As you can see, this market can move hundreds of points within a couple of hours and then reverse again. That is why I strongly emphasize day trading strategies if you have the skill and plan. The most important part of this is having expectations that are in line with your strategy. If you think you are going to open a day trade short and make 1k points, your expectations are out of line and that will most likely lead to a tendency to hold when you should not be. This is why I always stress not to mix strategies, especially if you are newer. It leads to taking risks that are unjustified for the smaller time frame trades.
Also during times like this, the news feeds, blogs and other outlets will be capitalizing on this event to gain attention and drive traffic to their sites. They will say all kinds of outrageous things like "10K Just Around the Corner!!!", you must not be seduced by this. Whether you follow the news or not, everything you need to know about where the market is likely to go is on your chart. It is a matter of recognizing patterns, understanding proportions and interpreting candles.You are better off consuming how to analyze, than consuming well executed marketing strategies.
In summary, the basic formation of a trend is currently in place. You have a series of higher lows and and higher highs, which makes it reasonable to expect higher prices until a clear change takes place (like a reversal). In terms of proportion and structure, this market is in a position to change, or fail, but it has not shown its hand, YET. Keep in mind, a normal retrace can take this market back to the mid 7100s (.382 of current bullish structure) and as a swing trader, THAT is the level that I am most interested in buying into (if the criteria of my plan lines up there). The market is not forcing you to take risk, and you do not always have to be in a position to be in a "trade". When the risk is unattractive on both sides of the market, you can always stay out. Like they say, "Flat is a position" and I am staying flat.
@MarcPMarkets I always used to act like a FOMO member... Your analysis and methods of explanation are like "yoga" of the trading world...I stopped acting on impulse. Thanks a lot for your time and efforts.
ookgezellig
⋅
@girishgopinath, Same here..... except for 1 fomo buy with Dash (which is in the plus now) Im now much more patient thanks to Marc
lewistz
⋅
Flat is a position. Wise words
Tbox
⋅
I love your level headed viewpoint here Marc - thanks so much for sharing your thoughts!
btrading74
⋅
Very nicely written... as always. Thank you very much! We are learning a lot!!
mightytrader
⋅
I could care less about Bitcoin going to 10k... that's only about 20% move. Bitcoin Gold PUMPED 60% within 2 hours last night! =D Bitcoin takes forever to PUMP 60%... months...
telnemri
⋅
I think the Tether $31 million hack caused the quick drop.. anyways, I've been flat for a while on this market - missed a few good trades but this market is too risky at the moment for me to jump into.. might jump in on the next major retrace however
Mjtebj23982702
⋅
Thank you.
prosper247
⋅
Thanks for the detailed analysis and chart.
With the current breakout to almost 9000, will you expect to pull back to 6000?
Thanks
dalmazio
⋅
I noticed an ascending wedge pattern that is forming here on the 4 hour chart as well, which is a reversal pattern. Coupled to the decreasing volume as we consolidate, we may be in for a "modest" correction down to the low 7k's or perhaps a little lower. This may be Elliott Waves 1 & 2, and setting up for a bullish wave 3 soon.