BTC printing a lower time frame descending channel could be a sign that there is some sort of bounce coming near term.
This descending channel is also reflected in all the TOTAL charts - here TOTAL2 bounced from support.
I have overlaid SPX index and its clear that it is impulsive while BTC is corrective.
And it has been quite strange today to look at stocks getting smashed, some in free fall but yet in the alt market things are fairly calm although trending down.
And that is quite unusual.
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Now, BTC is very exotic and descending channels can lead to collapses and if you look on the chart I have drawn one from near the recent top.
The little tricky manoeuvre it makes is a small upthrust that becomes a star followed by sudden collapse.
For that reason it may not be a very good idea to buy and cryptos without seeing a breakout.
And also for as long as indexes are falling BTC will most likely trundle down further correctively and so alts too.
Also BTC may have a tumble first if indexes climax as drawn on the chart, so I want to wait and see.
So this call would be on the back of indexes bouncing and SPX that is the leading index currently imo is approaching the same ratio retracement band and with RSI quite low I think a bounce is coming soon but maybe not quite yet.
Bear in mind that this is trading here, not investing and this is a very risky call.
That said alts may have a 30-60% pop I would guess potentially.
Its really how you see it based on your personal risk strategy.
For me - I would probably only allocate a much smaller % than for the previous alt rally.
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So alts i will potentially be looking at are UNI APE KDA DOGE CHZ and crypto stocks MARA and RIOT. I may add / subtract as things develop.
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For those also interested in other markets - can you see how it worked out shorting stocks and not crypto? It was because the stocks I chose were overextended whereas if I had shorted crypto or crypto stocks then there would be much more risk because they are very much not overextended, and I would have got little gain since they are correctively not impulsively falling.
If you want to see any of those calls they are KBH BA FCX CBU HON GOEV NNOX WFC ALNY ON ARCC - all on my ideas page, all in profit as well as my perfectly timed SPX index top call recently - thats 2 in a row. I've linked them below
Not advice.
This descending channel is also reflected in all the TOTAL charts - here TOTAL2 bounced from support.
I have overlaid SPX index and its clear that it is impulsive while BTC is corrective.
And it has been quite strange today to look at stocks getting smashed, some in free fall but yet in the alt market things are fairly calm although trending down.
And that is quite unusual.
...
Now, BTC is very exotic and descending channels can lead to collapses and if you look on the chart I have drawn one from near the recent top.
The little tricky manoeuvre it makes is a small upthrust that becomes a star followed by sudden collapse.
For that reason it may not be a very good idea to buy and cryptos without seeing a breakout.
And also for as long as indexes are falling BTC will most likely trundle down further correctively and so alts too.
Also BTC may have a tumble first if indexes climax as drawn on the chart, so I want to wait and see.
So this call would be on the back of indexes bouncing and SPX that is the leading index currently imo is approaching the same ratio retracement band and with RSI quite low I think a bounce is coming soon but maybe not quite yet.
Bear in mind that this is trading here, not investing and this is a very risky call.
That said alts may have a 30-60% pop I would guess potentially.
Its really how you see it based on your personal risk strategy.
For me - I would probably only allocate a much smaller % than for the previous alt rally.
...
So alts i will potentially be looking at are UNI APE KDA DOGE CHZ and crypto stocks MARA and RIOT. I may add / subtract as things develop.
...
For those also interested in other markets - can you see how it worked out shorting stocks and not crypto? It was because the stocks I chose were overextended whereas if I had shorted crypto or crypto stocks then there would be much more risk because they are very much not overextended, and I would have got little gain since they are correctively not impulsively falling.
If you want to see any of those calls they are KBH BA FCX CBU HON GOEV NNOX WFC ALNY ON ARCC - all on my ideas page, all in profit as well as my perfectly timed SPX index top call recently - thats 2 in a row. I've linked them below
Not advice.
Comment:
So I think it may end up something like this. Obviously this is the simple route and BTC is very exotic so expect that.
I've used a fib time extension to roughly guess the Y wave. Assuming BTC does not exceed indexes then it will most likely be a lower high before then plunging lower.
Is it worth to long alts in this fairly narrow window?
Well thats for you to decide based on how you like to trade.
If you did prefer to sit back and wait for a better opportunity that probably wouldn't be a bad idea. That said if BTC breaks up I may buy a few alts for a short term swing trade.
I've used a fib time extension to roughly guess the Y wave. Assuming BTC does not exceed indexes then it will most likely be a lower high before then plunging lower.
Is it worth to long alts in this fairly narrow window?
Well thats for you to decide based on how you like to trade.
If you did prefer to sit back and wait for a better opportunity that probably wouldn't be a bad idea. That said if BTC breaks up I may buy a few alts for a short term swing trade.
Comment:
MARA bounce idea linked below.
Comment:
And so if it does bounce up to the common 0.618 - 0.786 retracement it will tag the oh so important 200 week MA again and I think that is quite likely if there is a bounce; so i've drawn an orange band to show the target area.
Comment:
BTC breaking out of the blue retracement band and threatening to print a candle close across the 4H50MA.
Indexes are moving upward pre-market so looks like the bounce is on.
And so there are alt runners already and i've bought UNI and ETH as they are safely across the 4H50MA already and i've made a thread below and linked them below for you viewing pleasure 😄.
Will probably buy MARA once indexes sort themselves out. Its a big gap so i'll wait and see there as MARA is more index vulnerable.
Indexes are moving upward pre-market so looks like the bounce is on.
And so there are alt runners already and i've bought UNI and ETH as they are safely across the 4H50MA already and i've made a thread below and linked them below for you viewing pleasure 😄.
Will probably buy MARA once indexes sort themselves out. Its a big gap so i'll wait and see there as MARA is more index vulnerable.
Comment:
Added LINK to the list and it is linked below.
Indexes fell into the gap and have now pushed off to the upside so this looks like a solid bounce.
And well everyone likes to write their own reviews but I just called this bounce the day before it happened while everyone was looking down as can be seen by the bearish comments on my page here. They are always a good indicator 😸.
Indexes fell into the gap and have now pushed off to the upside so this looks like a solid bounce.
And well everyone likes to write their own reviews but I just called this bounce the day before it happened while everyone was looking down as can be seen by the bearish comments on my page here. They are always a good indicator 😸.
Comment:
So indexes are printing multiple shakeouts today, there is a lot of whipsaw and having fallen back down SPX is now negative, but yet UNI is still up 4.5%.
Also there are support structures just below so i'm going to hang on to my alts, at least for a while. I'm currently just below breakeven for crypto for the day so I'm not really too fussed about the whipsaw. That said I wont put up with loss for that long. We'll see how it goes.
Also there are support structures just below so i'm going to hang on to my alts, at least for a while. I'm currently just below breakeven for crypto for the day so I'm not really too fussed about the whipsaw. That said I wont put up with loss for that long. We'll see how it goes.
Comment:
Ok so in the blink of an eye indexes are very bearish so i'm 100% out.
I missed this but in the upside whipsaw SPX rejected from 50DMA and impulsed down which is very bearish.
And in that time BTC has collapsed back into the blue band.
So this trade setup to buy alts was playing with fire somewhat as i said before but it was also just a hedge against my equity short positions.
And a bounce may come through further whipsaw but there is too much bearish activity for me to engage currently. I will keep it simple for now.
I missed this but in the upside whipsaw SPX rejected from 50DMA and impulsed down which is very bearish.
And in that time BTC has collapsed back into the blue band.
So this trade setup to buy alts was playing with fire somewhat as i said before but it was also just a hedge against my equity short positions.
And a bounce may come through further whipsaw but there is too much bearish activity for me to engage currently. I will keep it simple for now.
Comment:
SPX:
Bull Market Group 🐂
Priority trades, round the clock updates and a 1 hour technical video per week 😼.
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Priority trades, round the clock updates and a 1 hour technical video per week 😼.
Make gains, learn technicals 🚀.
$50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
Looking forward to doing this is a group setting where I can talk more and write less. If you'd like to see more of what I do and be priority for updates then send me a message here or on Telegram where i'll be running the group later this month or start of October probably. Same ID as here "dRends35." Come say "hi" but do let me know its about the group please.