max low price on Bitcoin is price on Gold....
You are totally wrong man....
Kappy
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@shadowforworld, "max low price on Bitcoin is price on Gold" 1) why? 2) is this your opinion or fact? as far as I know there is no peg to gold
I haven't been charting gold but, for argument's sake: 3) what if gold price declines significantly? Then, it's totally possible within your view...
shadowforworld
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@Kappy, opinion with few indirect things...
for example one of this ... to low droping Bitcoin ca'nt be, BTC used in DarkNet transaction... huge black hole eating big piece of pie ;)
us you know, BTC lose in few month huge coin part percent .. now more and more used alternate coin like XRP ETH and etc... this things too consolidate BTC price...
filbfilb
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Nonsense
billaddison
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Jesus Christ, if it were to get anywhere near $150 I'd say it's abandoned and game over. BTW, how can you be bullish long term and have an outlook of approximately $150 by 2018/19?
@billaddison, 1) "$150... and game over" why? 2) When wave II is complete, wave III will be a bull run similar to or greater than the 5 wave rise of wave I. This analysis is purely based on Elloitt Wave Theory and psychology of financial markets. Fundamentals may be better than ever before but mass psychology (animal spirits) trump the rational valuations/market pricing.
With that said, when price is near $150 no will want to touch it, people will think it's game over yet it will be THE time to buy... #psychology
billaddison
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@Kappy, I understand the psychology. I haven't studied Elliott Waves. I just can't see it going that low purely on TA. Some serious black swan event would need to occur, and if it were to bring the price that low, I'd consider it to be something critical, like irreversible centralisation, a coin split, change to the basic protocol rules like increasing bitcoin distribution from 21 million to something else etc. In which case, I wouldn't consider it "bitcoin" anymore.
Kappy
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@billaddison, black swan I think is entirely reasonably, although I can't predict it. I shorted bitcoin prior to the Bitfinex hack based on my analysis. Unfortunately my trading account at the time was at Bitfinex.
Also, I was short-sighted in my analysis for how high BTC price would go thinking "it can't see it going that high." I exited early. So far, I still argue the expanding flat correction is valid and the highest probability based on the previous wave structure.
It's subtle here but I do also point out how the volume trend has declined over the past three years. This divergence does not support a strong bull run rather, it signals the opposite. Additionally, the sentiment I see is the sentiment that comes during tops.
billaddison
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@Kappy, The only way this prediction could be remotely possible would be via an extreme, critical black swan event. My feeling is this analysis could use a broader look into the fundamentals of Bitcoin to help inform its outlook.
In reference to the declining volume trend, I'm interested in understanding this better. In terms of US Dollars, volume appears to be increasing long-term (blockchain.info/charts/trade-volume?timespan=all). Assuming a declining volume trend is a reference to volume measured in bitcoin, presumably volumes would appear to be decreasing because the price parity in US Dollars is increasing, significantly.
My personal view, having lived in a few different economies throughout the Pacific, North and South America, is that there is plenty of room for growth in Bitcoin, particularly as a store of value, an inversely correlated asset (to traditional markets) and a useful transfer of value particularly cross-boarder with potential for micro-transactions and many other applications given the development roadmap. Unfortunately, to some extent, Bitcoin is one of the few truely decentralised and immutable blockchains – this is an extremely important and often overlooked point.
You are totally wrong man....