AuriePhilipchuk
Short

Daily Short Setup

BTCE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
170 3 0
Check out the decreasing daily volume on lower highs. With all the selling in the short and long term, plus the ultra bearish flash crash candle, my science is screaming beauty short setup here.

I'm looking for entry on a failed retest of that 530 high. I'll take the shot if it creeps anywhere into that red zone on very low volume . I'd set my stop on a print above 530.

With my system expectancy, I'm targeting minimum 4R (4 x risk) moves - painted in green. That said, I wouldn't bid out there, that's how you miss the 8R bangers (although I may unload some size). If it crossed, I'd set a hard stop at the target and let it run with a trailing stop on a 50% pullback. I'm looking for selling exhaustion or major support to close the trade.

What's your science saying?
ChartArt
2 years ago
My science says that this setup may be safer:

Short-term selling opportunity below 500 US Dollar


And for a long:

New York extends comment period. Long above 528-535 US Dollar
Reply
AuriePhilipchuk
2 years ago
The idea of chasing the short on a break of 500 is something I'd do if I miss my entry target. You can do this by grabbing the top of a pullback with a tight stop. I wouldn't touch it though unless it's confirmed by extreme short term sell volume. Without this confirmation, you have a really weak hand as the move could just be a headfake or a chop zone.

Unless you're super active, I really dislike the idea of going long around here unless we see some selling exhaustion (extreme volume on very tight spreads) or heavy buying (which could indicate a short term move up).
Reply
AuriePhilipchuk
2 years ago
UPDATE: Had a couple opportunities in the low end of the entry zone (up to ~518) but didn't execute. Was hoping it would push a little higher and try those highs.

I'm seeing volume confirmation of the move now (~1000BTC on the 15M) and I'm shopping this hard. I'll grab a short on the first low volume pullback I see. Hopefully we can get something near 500 and pick up extra resistance on the figure level.

When you're trading pullbacks, watch for a failed retest of the high on lower volume to enter. You ARE NOT trying to call the top of the pullback so set a tight stop above the high. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger a few times if the move up isn't done. When you see high volume selling on big spreads like this its a good expectancy the move will continue (at least until some solid buying is found).

Let me know what you think!
+1 Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out