Astroc

BTC Stoch tend to cross weekly. Expected strong downside move

Short
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Hello everyone! Maybe some of you who watch Stochastic RSI indicator noticed the same thing. Stoch RSI is the first indicator which I started using and I have a lot of sentiment to it. I believe it can quite accurate show market condition on higher time frames.

Unfortunately for all crypto-enthusiasts Stoch RSI shows strong bearish signal may happen soon. Indicator is going to cross it's 14 moving average on weekly time frame and due to past price actions it meant strong downside movement. Let's look at historical data.

I checked all bearish crosses which have occured since 2017. To measure what price range it made I took the highest price from the week before till the lowest price which was reached after cross. The first cross happened in march 2017 and the last in may 2018.

1. March 2017:
H: (high) 1338
L: (low) 888
- 33,65% within 3 weekly candles
2. May 2017:
H: 3003
L: 1822
- 39,30% within 6 weekly candles
3. September 2017
H: 4980
L: 3042
- 38,91% within 3 weekly candles
3. October 2017
H: 7919
L: 5380
- 32,06% within 2 weekly candles
3. December 2017
H: 19849
L: 6000
- 69,77% within 9 weekly candles
4. February 2018
H: 11549
L: 6425
-44,37% within 5 weekly candles
5. February 2018
H: 9990
L: 5750
-42,44% within 8 weekly candles
6. August 2018 (cross unconfirmed/movement unfinished)
H: 8506
L: 6890
-19,01% within 2 weekly candles

So fast look and what we know.
1. The strongest movement was 69% and the weakest -32%.
2. This year each movement is weaker than previous. 70%, 44%, 42%. It probably means bearish movements got weaker and maybe we can see reversal.
3. During bull market in 2017 all bearish movements are below 40%.
4. We made already 19%. Each movement is weaker. If this move is weaker than previous it means it can reach around 40%. So maximum is at 5103. If it is as weak as previous weakest movement (32%) than it is 5750 (our last lower low).

BUT

We havent made cross yet. It is very close but as long as cross wasnt made this scenario is invalid. If we cross it then I will go defintely short till our last lowee low around 5700.

Maybe I should to analyze more prehistoric data (2013-2016). Later I check them and if results are interesting then I will share it in this thread.

If you like the idea please like and follow me. I will keep it updated :)

Good luck!
Trade active: TRADE IS ACTIVE. I opened my short just below 6800 Cross already happened but we need to take into consideration that it's not fully confimred until we close weekly candle. BTC still can bounce to 7000 and close above but so far so good.
Trade active: Cross is clearly visible right now
but I expect some retrace now. We made almost perfect reversed V shape and hit resistance at 6200-6400 zone. I closed my short here for this moment because some bounce is expected.

Comment: The cross is confirmed. According to my analysis I expect retesting 5750 within next 3 weeks (it can be faster). I dont go short yet and I wait for better shorting opportunity around 6700$
Trade active: Just want to let know that trade is still active and according to previous drops this would be the weakest one within 2 year IF we bounce here.. We already dropped 30% from previous high. What's the chance this one is the lowest? Last three were 70%, 44% and 42%.

In the last bull market drop are weaker and the weakest was 33%. Now we are in the bear market.

I am still expecting going another 10% to around 5200-5500 within a week. My other analysis agrees with this set up. Good luck!

Comments

I've just read all your posts please keep up the brilliant research and TA.
Will follow avidly.
+1 Reply
Astroc GlennTarplett
@GlennTarplett, Thank you a lot! I really appreciate it :)
Reply
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