Unfortunately for all crypto-enthusiasts shows strong signal may happen soon. Indicator is going to cross it's 14 moving average on weekly time frame and due to past price actions it meant strong downside movement. Let's look at historical data.
I checked all crosses which have occured since 2017. To measure what price range it made I took the highest price from the week before till the lowest price which was reached after cross. The first cross happened in march 2017 and the last in may 2018.
1. March 2017:
H: (high) 1338
L: (low) 888
- 33,65% within 3 weekly candles
2. May 2017:
- 39,30% within 6 weekly candles
3. September 2017
- 38,91% within 3 weekly candles
3. October 2017
- 32,06% within 2 weekly candles
3. December 2017
- 69,77% within 9 weekly candles
4. February 2018
-44,37% within 5 weekly candles
5. February 2018
-42,44% within 8 weekly candles
6. August 2018 (cross unconfirmed/movement unfinished)
-19,01% within 2 weekly candles
So fast look and what we know.
1. The strongest movement was 69% and the weakest -32%.
2. This year each movement is weaker than previous. 70%, 44%, 42%. It probably means movements got weaker and maybe we can see reversal.
3. During bull market in 2017 all movements are below 40%.
4. We made already 19%. Each movement is weaker. If this move is weaker than previous it means it can reach around 40%. So maximum is at 5103. If it is as weak as previous weakest movement (32%) than it is 5750 (our last lower low).
We havent made cross yet. It is very close but as long as cross wasnt made this scenario is invalid. If we cross it then I will go defintely short till our last lowee low around 5700.
Maybe I should to analyze more prehistoric data (2013-2016). Later I check them and if results are interesting then I will share it in this thread.
If you like the idea please like and follow me. I will keep it updated :)
but I expect some retrace now. We made almost perfect reversed V shape and hit resistance at 6200-6400 zone. I closed my short here for this moment because some bounce is expected.
In the last bull market drop are weaker and the weakest was 33%. Now we are in the bear market.
I am still expecting going another 10% to around 5200-5500 within a week. My other analysis agrees with this set up. Good luck!