First of all, sorry i have not been around so much lately. I wish i could say i took a break, but far from it :). I have been answering emails for almost 16 hours a day 4 days in a row and they just keep on popping in. And i have been trying to keep my members up to date as much as possible. Think it's time for an assistant :)
Back to the market, our little nasty, controlled by whales, bitcoin market. I have been warning my VIP members the whole week that a big drop would probably happen soon. Like in my previous analysis where i said that i was seeing distribution going on. Because of this, iI told them and here as well, that i was thinking about a big V shape low probably coming soon. That i would only re think my analysis if the price would break the 7900/8000. But what disgusts me the most, they started this wave on saturday night (CET) when (probably) nobody was expecting it. With a few exceptions here and there, the market usually does not show it's hand during the weekend. But i am convinced that's probably the whole reason WHY they did it.
The fractal was a 100% winner once again, showing us the path the market would probably follow. I did not expect a dump like this though, so i still have to figure out what the next move will be. I have 2 scenario's in my mind;
1) The big V shape low, meaning this downwards pressure is far from over. So far i have no reason to think this will not happen. I have no level in mind, no real targets yet, since i have not been able to really watch the market and analyse everything. So could be 6000, 5K levels or maybe even a below that. I don't (yet) think an extreme crash will happen. This all could happen in a week or this could go on for quite some time, don't know yet. 2) We might be moving around between the 6000 and the 7400 for quite some time, moving sideways and just see some fighting going on between bulls and bears. So seeing some short covering and some new selling pressure getting in again. But than we should see a more stable increase of volume that shows buyers are getting into the market as well. Can't yet say what kind of formation we will see, but it should be a solid bottom formation.
I will try and to post some more updates this time, don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing here :)
David
Previous analysis:
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Few options here, still think the sideways action is far from over. As you know i still think another big drop has the biggest chance, but i think it will take a while before that happens. Maybe even next week, but that's just guessing and impossible to know upfront. There is a clear bear flag though, this usually suggest a continuation of the former move. But we are in a big support area so i would be a bit surprised if we just dump right through it. Even if the flag breaks, depending on the selling pressure and the speed of course, i think we might see something like the blue line. Don't think the red line has a big shot to happen. There is a chance the flag will hold as support. So i think the blue line has the biggest chance, i will try to keep you updated if i see other signals
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Market is still very weak, still no buyers getting in or shorts covering. Can't really say yet what will happen, but i think a bullish wedge might be possible. We have made quite the drop already so it should be a matter of time.
On the other hand, since i am expecting a big V shape low, the red line is also possible. A drop out of a bullish wedge usually doesn't happen but it is possible and would be typical for a big low move.
So just some moves to keep in mind.
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Moment of truth now, price looks stable, but no real buying yet. If we get above the 6300/6330 we should see a (small) squeeze. Below 6180 it could be game over
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Was about to say, if bulls push it back in, should be safe zone and could possibly see another squeeze
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Starting to look more stable now, some alts showing signs for a (temp) low as well. So could move up now
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The red line is the biggest challange
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Zooming out a bit, the picture looks better, a break of 6340 would trigger a target around 6450/6550. Still no conviction that bulls want to rally up, price should stay above the 6260, otherwise the 6200 will probably tested again
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Target reached, could still go higher the coming day(s), but might see a pullback to the green zone
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Looking very strong, might even make another rally again
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Bulls are still trying to push higher, Broke the triangle downwards, but bulls bought it up again and turned it into a bull flag it seems. But still against a heavy resistance at the moment. They need buy volume to break out. If they fail 6500ish should be support level, if that breaks as well we could see a retest of the 6300/6200. The 6200 has to hold IMO. I think bull are in favor short term, but not yet very convincing. Med term is still bearish, unless we see a big volume jump up, but not likely.
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Volume is missing, on the sell and buy side it seems. So difficult to say whats going on. My best guess is we might turn up slowly again. As long as the 6250/6350 holds as support. My general view has not changed, still no reason to think it will. For the ones who are not aware, even though we have made quite the drop already, i think the hurting is till not over. Only a strong rally above the 7000 might change things. The path it will follow is not easy to say, no real fractal to give any guidance at the moment. I will try to look into it more tomorrow.
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Rally has been quite week, so might see a small drop again, something like this. But that circle must hold. Otherwise could mean something else is going on
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And again a very weak rally, yesterday i thought it could be the start of a small rally towards the 6700/6900, but things have changed. At the moment i really can't say what will happen next. I can turn the chart into bullish pattern if i want (the 6K level price action) or show a few bearish patterns. To many mixed signals at the moment!. 6300 is a clear support level, the 6400ish should be a (smaller) support level as well. Still don't think the down trend is over, but i thought we could see a bigger upwards correction, still do but i have more doubts now. It could fit the big V shape low i am still expecting, that we just drop again from here and the coming days. But my gut says it's too soon and to fast.
Don't have a chart, because it's no use really. I will try to post a new update later today after doing some research and try to figure things out.
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Still no update chart, will try to make on later. For now, it's still guessing, i can turn this chart into any pattern i want like i mentioned before. I think this small triangle is valid, but can still break on both sides. I think we can break upwards, fit's my bigger picture better. But more like 55/45 :) because all this noise (up down up down) is just so much noise, can't clearly see what's going on. Those green level's are support levels, with the lower one being the most important one.
I drew a big flag, that's just a thought of what might be going on in the bigger picture. Try to show you in the new analysis.
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Bulls and bears are still fighting it seems, very close to a break out up or down. Could see a big move, hopefully some volatility returns after the breakout. I think we will break upwards, but than the 6350/60 should hold, actually even the 6390
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Hello guys, I know you guys are disappointed and used to me posting and updating 24/7. But I had my first real day off in almost half a year. And yes, like someone mentioned already, still bullish on the short term. So I did try to update you guys when I thought it was really worth it. Think I still gave you some good updates, even thought the market was quite confusing again. And trust me, I have not given my members any more updates than I did here. Only a little bit of guidance during the trade, nothing more. I am not abandoning you guys so please don’t even think that. Just allot going on lately and I am still doing everything myself. And I do have I VIP group yes, but also another free trial group next to the standard group, so I actually don’t even know what the problem is to be honoust :)
Anyway, I will (try) update the chart later today or tomorrow. For now, even though the low time frame shows there is room for a correction to 6500, I think the 6700/6650 will hold as support. I see some mixed signals but still I think staying above the 6650 has the biggest chance. Don’t think the move up will be big but more like 6850/6900. But I am still bearish for the medium term, don’t think the hurting is over yet. Unless we see some very bullish signs.
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So the (possible) big inverse H&S is still in play. I thought we could push through yesterday, until that hack news came and changed everything. And just now the Tether news taking away a nice entry.
My view is still up for the short time frame, so probably move higher. And the Tether news supports that idea allot. But i am not doing it. I might even change my whole bearish view as well for the med term because of the Tether news, but don't know yet.
Botje called this one right on again. What an analyst !
Keep up the good work !
UnknownUnicorn2774089
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It's weird how we think of the bulls and bears as two separate groups. They are in fact the same bot trader once the dirty work is done.
Snuby3
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@LeoKim, i think that all the time... I try not to think of it like that. it doesn't make sense to. but I think for the most part, hodlers can be thought of as bulls, because they only make money if the price goes up. as a trader i can make money either way. so hodlers are like permanent hopefuls, as displayed by my buddy Justin. who has ignored every bit of great advice I've given him to sell.. because he is completely convinced that at just about any moment the thing could go to 30,000. its mind boggling. he's more than okay with watching his Fiat disappear.. as long as he doesn't risk losing any bitcoin- he'll buy at just about any price.. refuses to sell. he's too scared to sell.
UnknownUnicorn1541497
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@Snuby3, Wannt to guess what happened with the people that "hodled" through and bought down at the last two bitcoin bear markets? Besides hodlers can use Funding and MM to make money and increasing their positions. Read up @goldbug1 , and while i understand your approach and concerns (i personally only daytrade) i dont think your friend is scared. He believes something and he folllows through. Not many people can say that.
goldbug1
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@daniel_se, @Snuby3 Snuby your fiat doesn’t disappear unless you sell. There are also tax considerations and other variables, the only people that do not take tax considerations into account are those new to trading and are not trading with a deep stack.
I would talk to an accountant because you may not realize, every positive trade is taxable, but you can not write off losing ones if you buy the same security back within 6 months. That’s 40% working against you (or me anyways) on every trade. In addition you can not write off losses if the same instrument if bought within 6 months.
So if someone bought and sold from 2k on up and they outperformed buy and hold by 20% on paper, with tax implications they still underperformed the HODLR. Basic accounting. Well that’s unless your still on your parents tax return.
Snuby3
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@daniel_se, no, my buddy thinks he's gonna get rich quick and has bought this drop from ATH all the way down. and yes, he literally tells me word for word, "I didn't sell when you advised me to because I was scared it would moon as soon as I sold." he told me that. he's waaay in the negative.. over 30K. but anyways, I wasn't making any sort of argument against hodling, you may have misunderstood. I was trying to point out the different mindset, bull and bear, and how HODLing doesn't lend itself to being "bearish" or being "a bear". only a trader would intend to sell and take profit. I was only trying to point out that my hodler friend was a PERMA BULL. that's all I meant. I'm fortunate to do so well at something so difficult, and I don't expect everyone to share my success.
botje11
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@LeoKim, Yes your right, the big whale (s) are yes. But when volume does increase we might even see real bulls and bears fight.
Tangent1
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@LeoKim, but they always can make adjustement to their bots to make it retrace and trigger the other bots
thespycry
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Man I just do not understand why are you answering mails from all the people. If they are really following you and reading everything you write.. there is no need for a question anymore. And if they have educative questions, they could follow anyone with educative content as well.. and I know what I am saying, because I am also a learning noob.
johntech13
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@thespycry, he is trying to make his VIP group (a group that you pay to become a member) bigger, and to do that he needs to answer these emails, to work with the already existing members and mentor them. If you noticed his updates are at minimum lately and the information to these updates are less valuable than the past because he needs time now to satisfy his members that pay him and to keep the good staff for them.
No problem by me, I wish him the best, but I can't follow or like his posts anymore that clearly became shallow, and they are late with lack of updates at crucial moments.
Thankfully I educated myself enough and keep studying every day so I don't really need to read his posts too be successful at my trades. Although his posts enough times were a confirmation to my TA and thoughts, and you need that in a such manipulated market.
Anyways, again best of luck David, you deserve it.
Keep up the good work !