It's clear that BTC is headed higher but how much higher? With the onset of all the signs on the wall that Powell will assuredly delay tapering bond purchases which were originally supposed to occur sometime in 1H 2022, the macro thematic picture couldn't get more bullish for BTC ... all the while the SP500 is headed to 4600 by year end and the inflation combo are helping to create major tailwinds for bitcoin. Additionally, I have an analysis on the bearish structure the DXY is in and how it's likely headed to the 2014 lows (Obama Era levels).
I only view inflation as a temporary issue from supply chain constraints but the other element in the picture is the fiscal and monetary policy. The US congress is about to push through a major multi-trillion dollar Infrastructure bill. Additionally, the debt ceiling will be lifted at the same time, and J Powell is about to get a lot more dovish with China's stock market in the midst of a major retracement.
Lastly, there is a LIVE bill (HR 4451) introduced by Congressman Emmer with bipartisan support from Soto and others which seeks to eliminate painpoints for crypot and blockchain technology from a regulatory perspective. The bill is called the Securities Clarity Act and it aims to stop calling crypto companies securities giving FULL clarity for investors and project devs to go full steam ahead.
You can read more about that bill which will be voted on in the next weeks once it is released from committee:
emmer.house.gov/2021...under-securities-law
FaceBook Diem - FB will be making headlines about their major stablecoin project - Diem - any day as Yellen pounds the table to get regulations in place before this event happens. It is my view that FB and the US Government have been coordinating which is why Yellen changed her tone from slight negative to slight positive on crypto. They want to have some guardrails in place before FB releases Diem b/c overnight at least 340 million people in the US will have access to a US digital dollar stablecoin through a social app. This is massively bullish as it shows the Fed / Treasury / SEC / CFTC are all onboard with allowing crypto thrive for the time being.
Elon Musk - Elon's B Word Conference appearance was more than just theatrics this time around. The guy confirmed he genuinely believes in crypto and put all haters to rest. He even shocked the world by announcing SpaceX owns BTC on its Balance Sheet - something no one expected. Additionally, Elon has much bigger plans for crypto imo likely involving SolarCity and decentralized mining with unused power from batteries. This is a longer-term vision but clearly Elon wants to be heavily involved in the space and wants to help develop decentralized money for the people.
Amazon - although the rumors about Amazon were denied by the company, it's unlikely they aren't true considering Amazon confirmed the rumor partially by saying they are exploring cryptocurrencies and bringing the newest tech to their customers. This is confirmed by the job board posting which isn't for a dev or lower level position but a Blockchain Executive - someone who will be in the Exec Suite of AWS... this is very big news b/c this single person will be responsible for steering AMZN into crypto and it will happen - just a matter of when not if.... I'd say chances are good by year end still.
Macro-thematic Reasons to be Bullish
All of this combined BTC should trend higher over next few days to $44k and I expect there to be at least some resistance there and then we will retrace for another chance to buy in before a wave higher.
I only view inflation as a temporary issue from supply chain constraints but the other element in the picture is the fiscal and monetary policy. The US congress is about to push through a major multi-trillion dollar Infrastructure bill. Additionally, the debt ceiling will be lifted at the same time, and J Powell is about to get a lot more dovish with China's stock market in the midst of a major retracement.
Lastly, there is a LIVE bill (HR 4451) introduced by Congressman Emmer with bipartisan support from Soto and others which seeks to eliminate painpoints for crypot and blockchain technology from a regulatory perspective. The bill is called the Securities Clarity Act and it aims to stop calling crypto companies securities giving FULL clarity for investors and project devs to go full steam ahead.
You can read more about that bill which will be voted on in the next weeks once it is released from committee:
emmer.house.gov/2021...under-securities-law
FaceBook Diem - FB will be making headlines about their major stablecoin project - Diem - any day as Yellen pounds the table to get regulations in place before this event happens. It is my view that FB and the US Government have been coordinating which is why Yellen changed her tone from slight negative to slight positive on crypto. They want to have some guardrails in place before FB releases Diem b/c overnight at least 340 million people in the US will have access to a US digital dollar stablecoin through a social app. This is massively bullish as it shows the Fed / Treasury / SEC / CFTC are all onboard with allowing crypto thrive for the time being.
Elon Musk - Elon's B Word Conference appearance was more than just theatrics this time around. The guy confirmed he genuinely believes in crypto and put all haters to rest. He even shocked the world by announcing SpaceX owns BTC on its Balance Sheet - something no one expected. Additionally, Elon has much bigger plans for crypto imo likely involving SolarCity and decentralized mining with unused power from batteries. This is a longer-term vision but clearly Elon wants to be heavily involved in the space and wants to help develop decentralized money for the people.
Amazon - although the rumors about Amazon were denied by the company, it's unlikely they aren't true considering Amazon confirmed the rumor partially by saying they are exploring cryptocurrencies and bringing the newest tech to their customers. This is confirmed by the job board posting which isn't for a dev or lower level position but a Blockchain Executive - someone who will be in the Exec Suite of AWS... this is very big news b/c this single person will be responsible for steering AMZN into crypto and it will happen - just a matter of when not if.... I'd say chances are good by year end still.
Macro-thematic Reasons to be Bullish
- J Powell delaying tapering bond purchases
- SP500 headed to 4600 by year-end (supported by several Elliott Wave analyses)
- Further weakening of DXY by year end
- Inflation from Fiscal and dovish Monetary policy
- Major Deficit spending by Congress with the Infrastructure Bill
- US Congressmen sponsoring bipartisan bill to deem cryptos separate from securities so investors and developers have green light to innovate
- FaceBook Diem to be announced in coming days after the sudden switch of HQs from Switzerland back to the US - hint that FB's legal team has regulatory clarity in the US
- Elon Musk accepting BTC again for Tesla payments
- Elon having wider plans for crypto than anyone imagined since SpaceX owns BTC on its balance sheet too
- AMZN working on crypto payments
All of this combined BTC should trend higher over next few days to $44k and I expect there to be at least some resistance there and then we will retrace for another chance to buy in before a wave higher.
Comment:
I expect Bitcoin to test the ATH in August and surpass it in September