I was very enthusiastic in June 2014 that the yearly price increase pattern (bubble) repeats very soon. But 600 US Dollar is only the from the last all-time-high, which opens the risk possibility that the BTC price goes lower than the 0.5 retracement in the coming weeks. The recent move from 560 US Dollar to 607 US Dollar ( price) was a bull trap and will therefore turn out as a dead cat bounce on the way down (UPDATE: The price has already fallen from 592 down to 585 since I published this chart 4 hours ago).
The indicator already shows the beginning of a larger downtrend. Lacking bull power, if the Bitcoin price doesn't break out above 700 US Dollar that would mean that the price is in a position to continue the downtrend in the summer. And if Bitcoin stays below 600 US Dollar (current price is around 590 US Dollar ) then I expect the price to test the last , which is around 400 US Dollar (maybe we bounce of 425 US Dollar or 450 US Dollar ). If you need another reason for the current downtrend then check the . Here is an example by TerryKinder:
The next at 0.618 (61.8%) would mean the BTC price visits 500 US Dollar again. The following lower at 0.764 (76.4%) would bring very critical Bitcoin price support at 350 US Dollar . My analysis is based on many indicators besides the , maybe I will post all the other signals I found so far as updates in the comments of this chart. However the alone is very reliable in the weekly chart. I once made a comparison for myself with the vs StochRSI and I would have made much more money (around double the amount) using only the as indicator in the weekly chart to determine entry and exit since 2012 than if I had used only the .
outlook: If the price goes only down to 500 US Dollar and some very good news brings in much more new Bitcoin users - in that case the downtrend might reverse into a uptrend. Based on the (hypothetical) very good news we could see a new Bitcoin price rally, when we finally break the resistance at 700 US Dollar . That uptrend would then bring us back to test 1000 US Dollar . But we are not there yet. First the price has to clean up in the Summer the overall downtrend from the last all-time-high at 1200 US Dollar .
I created this chart as response to the chart created by ItisCalvin: Make sure to visit "related ideas" (see below) where I added my last downtrend corresponding charts.
"The point about a prediction is not that it’s true. A prediction is either a warning or a hope. Predictions should never claim to be true. But you can claim they are possibilities that there is something you ought to think about.” - Freeman Dyson