BTCUSD - BitStamp, Intermediate Term Bullish

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
We have retraced 8806% of the swing from April low at 336 to high at 682. We have other fib ration and 360 zone which as many of you will know in Gann Analysis is very important number as it represents 360 degree in a circle.

Anyway, I am conservatively looking for potential contracting triangle which is more clearer in BitFinex., which if correct then a zigzag move to 550-560 zone could be expected.

Alternatively, if since April low we have a "Flat Correction (also see a diagram below) , then we have what could unfold is Wave C with 5 internal waves, that could retest 680 high or attain higher higher level.

For details explanation see the recording of live presentation broadcasted yesterday at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkPvAxb9AD4

In terms of potential low we have following things to note:

1. Retraced 88.6% of the April to June swing.
2. Potential RSI divergence which could fail. but for now it is suggesting bullish out come.
3. From July 2014 high at 658 we have what seems like an ending diagonal in the form of falling wedge . This normally suggest and end of the cycle.
4. falling volume with the current low completed with one prior labelled 3.

This is a volatile instrument so the price action might nullify the above but as long as it holds then possible outcome described above has good chance of unfolding.

This is an intermediate term bullish and do not fell will be a new bullish cycle that will result in price continuing to retest the all time high and beyond.
A Diagram for "Flat Correction"
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I like this second idea "flat correction", it looks the most probable to me, thanks man
Thanks for the update :) Cool.
thank you
I know that your analysis is based on pattern recognition of Elliot waves.

I'm wondering where a sudden demand for Bitcoin could come from? It could be the launch of Circle, but I don't see enough excitement in the market so far. We had some new positive momentum with the PayPal news, but we couldn't even stay above $400 with that momentum.
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DanV MOD ChartArt
I can completely understand your question. The thing is, I have no idea. However, as you said based on EW , Fibs and general structure that is the conclusion I am led to. May be it might start of very slow and some catalyst will come along to line up with the expected move. We will have to wait and see.
Great chart Dan! And thank you for the presentation yesterday, it was very informative.

Based off of what I learned I produced a chart that looks like this:

Ignoring that giant candle wick (which doesn't appear on all exchanges) it seems that we are forming a contracting horizontal triangle that will most likely breakout to the upside. However, I'm not convinced that we are ready for a rise just yet. The major reversal zones labeled are my desired entry points. A sustained break below such levels will most likely spell doom for the bulls. So I do believe your chart will be true, we just have to say hello to 330 before we depart for the moon, and then subsequently fail and crash to the 200s.

I'd appreciate you sharing your thoughts on this.
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In wave 4 or Wave B you could have symmetrical triangle with 3-3-3-3-3 a,b,c,d,e configuration. However, the one you are suggesting you chart does not seem to be if that kind but rather sort of large falling wedge if it plays out, but that normally is only seen in ending diagonal, ie there must be a prior cycle in the same direction. In this case we do not as it appear to commence right from Nov 2013 ATH. So, I think your suggested triangle do not look right. That is not to say you are wrong as I could be missing something. Hope this helps.
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Great chart, thanks !
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The thing is, we never know when the news is coming because the whales control the news AND the price, directly. Plus, people often make the mistake of thinking news is supposed to have some kind of immediate effect. We've been having positive news for quite a while now, so I wouldn't be surprised to at least see a significant retrace very soon. The current angle is simply too steep to keep up.
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Could you clarify what you meant in your last sentence? I think there must be a misspelling or error in there somewhere.
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Thanks. Well spotted. Result of late night work. LOL
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So given the price went below what was expected are we still expecting a correction at some point? If so will the magnitude of the correction be the same just from a different starting point or does everything need to be recalculated? Just wondering how the current price action fits into your model, thanks for sharing the chart, love your work :)
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You are wrong again.
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Thanks. You are welcomed.
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Well it's not like he didn't warn you "This is a volatile instrument so the price action might nullify the above but as long as it holds then possible outcome described above has good chance of unfolding."
DanV MOD BenjaminNewton
Exactly. Folks should stop looking for exact levels and do bit of their own homework. However, in the video, I explained that even if we the triangle Idea fails, then we have possible Flat correction. There are 3 different types of flat. This one appears to be fitting running flat configuration now. So the overall conclusion is still the same that is a strong le up could be anticipated as soon as intermediate low is established. Except that the upside is like potential could be capped as it starting from lower level. Appreicate your comment. Thanks.
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lol well.. one should not have traded the falling wedge for a breakout up at no point.. so now it turned into a down channel.. Nobody can predict that, but the trade is still valid. .. if one had shorted.. he could have kept the short open, if one was waiting to buy in. there is still no breakout and can buy cheaper coins now. win win
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DanV MOD wonky_tonky
Good point. Thanks.
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Previously anticipated falling wedge now seems to have failed, instead we could have just simple double zigzag with 270-250 now very likely.

Based on time symmetry if it holds could suggest that a possible down trend to continue till 10th October and low to form around 270-250 area. From which a strong price action could be expected and the nature of the action will show if that will be new bullish cycle or one that would result in just retracement. So for now trade able low could form and anticipate the upswing.
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Dan, this chart is still valid, you just have to click "Play" and refresh it.
DanV MOD blackswan
At the time of publication, I suggested an outline of likely price path. It would seem it could still be in play. However we have had lot of price data since and hence has been republished with updated details. Right now we have 220 -240 range and for either directional move it needs one of these taken out. So possibly we have both bullish and bearish scenarios open.

Hope this helps.
Dan, that's right. i actually meant that this chart was pretty much spot on and valid in terms of its projection... :)
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