MarcPMarkets

BTCUSD: Strong Close Can Lead To 14K Push?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD update: Higher high takes out bearish trend line as anticipated. With the 9890 to 10836 minor resistance cleared and bullish trend line still intact, the next resistance area that I am looking for is the 13012 to 14889 zone. At the same time, I am still open to locking in 15% of my position if price action presents a reversal signal in the current price location.

For those who have been following this position trade, my average price is 10020. The swing trade call that I made at 8854 paid an 1800 point profit (if you sold at 10500) and IF you held onto some as I suggested, you are riding a winner. The main premise behind the position trade was the magnitude of the support zone that the market reacted to which was the 8171 to 4983 area (.618 relative to entire bullish structure). And consistent with this premise, price has cleared the minor resistance zone of 9890 to 10836 (.618 area of recent bearish structure). The next area to consider is the 13012 to 14889 resistance zone (.618 relative to entire bearish structure).

The bearish trend line break around the 11400 area is a significant bullish sign. It serves as evidence that the bearish momentum that took this market to 6K is no longer in effect. This does not mean the market won't retrace though. In this scenario, I would expect support levels to offer a better chance of holding, rather than this market testing new lows. Keep in mind, price has not cleared a small reversal zone that is just above the most recent minor peak. IF a bearish candle formation appears at the current level, that would signal a failed high and more than likely lead to a retrace. On the other hand if there is a strong close, then it is reasonable to expect bullish momentum to carry price into the higher resistance zone over the next few days.

In the failed high situation, I am looking to sell 15% of my position, otherwise I am holding for the 13 to 14Ks. Letting a winner run is a best practice and requires the flexibility to adjust if the market presents a less favorable sign. Part of my plan was to see how price behaves on the break of the trend line . Any trouble, I will lock in some profit and reduce risk, otherwise hold. I may not be able to update this post with timely order information so it is not wise to depend on me for these types of decisions. I am telling you my plan, and you must have the ability to make the judgement on your own whether to lock in or hold.

In summary, one of the best lessons you can take away from this trade is this: To benefit from a broader move, you must be able to see the opportunity before it becomes obvious to the herd. If you find yourself confused because of conflicting information the whole way up, it is because you lack your own perspective and are missing a process to evaluate market information effectively. This will especially be the case if you are a hyper consumer of internet news which only serves to benefit marketers. All financial markets, especially this one, are environments that flow with uncertainty at all times. Price action can help us get a sense of how the crowd is likely to react, but the key to benefiting from this type of evaluation is also having the mental flexibility to adjust if your scenario is negated. There is no certainty, only probability. Our goal is to find ways to stack probabilities in our favor enough to justify taking the risk and usually when these opportunities are present, they are not obvious.

Questions and comments welcome.
Comment: BTCUSD Position Update: Sold 15% of long position at 10921.22 (Coinbase). For 900 point profit. (Avg. price 10020).
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Comments

I am not sure how you drew your trendline. There was a small spike above it and it pulled back below. It is still intact. There is also clear bearish divergence on RSI and AO.

+8 Reply
Thank you @Analwhore for pointing this out.
So many people chart and lines appear broken thus giving wrong signals.

Only trust charts you manipulated yourself :)
Reply
LoveDump EspressoDopio
@EspressoDopio, Do I dare say bull trap?
Reply
When you're called @Analwhore, you can say ANYTHING :)

At the end of today we should be able to confirm the bull trap or the bots are just getting strength for the next manipulation....
Reply
"To benefit from a broader move, you must be able to see the opportunity before it becomes obvious to the herd. If you find yourself confused because of conflicting information the whole way up, it is because you lack your own perspective and are missing a process to evaluate market information effectively. This will especially be the case if you are a hyper consumer of internet news which only serves to benefit marketers. All financial markets, especially this one, are environments that flow with uncertainty at all times. Price action can help us get a sense of how the crowd is likely to react, but the key to benefiting from this type of evaluation is also having the mental flexibility to adjust if your scenario is negated. There is no certainty, only probability"

We should make a book of your quotes
+5 Reply
anon541 mcbw_
@mcbw_, Agree. +1
Reply
Thank you for the continuous, amazing, analysis Marc. Always well worded, wise, and without ego.

You often communicate challenges that I am currently faced with, in my own trades, and I always walk away with something valuable.

Some small take aways:
- Wait for the market/trade to come to you.
- Sell into strength, buy into weakness.
- Trade small lots.
- Stick to your convictions

Looking forward to continue to learn from your perspectives. Cheers!
+3 Reply
@MarcPMarkets i dont think we should expect uptrends.
We were waiting for consolidation which did not happend.
Price was pushed to 11,7.
Now we are experiencing reversal to 10050 (aprox).
12-16h, then heading toward 8,2-8.4k.

Regards Mark
+2 Reply
Thanks!
+1 Reply
Well it depends how you draw your trend line and on which exchange... BFX did a small breakout just a bit and retraced... What could be considered as another BTC fakeout... But we shall see
+1 Reply
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