As I dig deeper, the Bitcoin picture becomes clearer. I'm starting to believe that Bitcoin is the penny stock of the world's finance. I'm comparing Bitcoin to a fund that manages a basket of EM-related assets. This is the reported breakdown as of October:
China 19.95%
Other 16.59%
South Korea 14.78%
Taiwan 11.39%
Russia 8.23%
Brazil 8.01%
South Africa 6.33%
India 5.97%
Cash & Cash Equivalents 5.29%
Peru 3.46%
You can see the almost direct relationship between crypto and the fund. As Bitcoin has grown, the behaviour has become more and more similar between the two. Even back in 2012 there was already a developing parallel.
This has lead me to believe that more than crypto being at the mercy of the dollar, in order for the space to be bullish, the world's finance has to have the right conditions. Investors need to be so confident that they move not only into emerging markets, but go all the way into the penny stock of the world. It isn't yet completely clear to me why EMs top first, but it may have something to do with the low cap nature of crypto. As for the bottoms, there isn't a clear relationship either. I'm inclined to say that crypto rallies first, once again, due to its low cap nature. This isn't always the case, but it could be a good explanation.
Beyond the fact that crypto might simply be a penny stock for people on a macro scale, it seems that "domestic" issues, such as halvings, hacks, news, forks, etc. only seem to affect either the slope of the trend or very localised movements. If we look back at the 2013 rally it doesn't make it implausible to have a move to 10-15k by December. Furthermore, meme lines won't predict or find the real bottom. What you can do is start looking into real world issues. The overall financial world needs a very confident outlook in order for crypto to move. That being said, I feel that emerging markets will have a breather soon, allowing crypto to have a partially bullish move.
TL;DR halvings don't matter for macro trend. For moon or crash you need to look at emerging markets.
China 19.95%
Other 16.59%
South Korea 14.78%
Taiwan 11.39%
Russia 8.23%
Brazil 8.01%
South Africa 6.33%
India 5.97%
Cash & Cash Equivalents 5.29%
Peru 3.46%
You can see the almost direct relationship between crypto and the fund. As Bitcoin has grown, the behaviour has become more and more similar between the two. Even back in 2012 there was already a developing parallel.
This has lead me to believe that more than crypto being at the mercy of the dollar, in order for the space to be bullish, the world's finance has to have the right conditions. Investors need to be so confident that they move not only into emerging markets, but go all the way into the penny stock of the world. It isn't yet completely clear to me why EMs top first, but it may have something to do with the low cap nature of crypto. As for the bottoms, there isn't a clear relationship either. I'm inclined to say that crypto rallies first, once again, due to its low cap nature. This isn't always the case, but it could be a good explanation.
Beyond the fact that crypto might simply be a penny stock for people on a macro scale, it seems that "domestic" issues, such as halvings, hacks, news, forks, etc. only seem to affect either the slope of the trend or very localised movements. If we look back at the 2013 rally it doesn't make it implausible to have a move to 10-15k by December. Furthermore, meme lines won't predict or find the real bottom. What you can do is start looking into real world issues. The overall financial world needs a very confident outlook in order for crypto to move. That being said, I feel that emerging markets will have a breather soon, allowing crypto to have a partially bullish move.
TL;DR halvings don't matter for macro trend. For moon or crash you need to look at emerging markets.
Comment:
To make this more relatable, think of the last bull run. The world will buy crypto at the equivalent of the the time you felt so confident that you bought an absolute shitcoin like Ethereum Gold. That's the level of comfy the world needs for moon.
Comment:
It turns out I cant delete posts, so I'll just spam a donation address. Send me your ETH here 0xF7Dc813B5c746F777DD29c94b7558ADE7577064e.
