So I expect that after strong rally we need to pullback. Bulls lost steam and can't make another higher high and we can watch on 4h chart. We also break some minor trendline. At this level long positions are trapped and I believe we may retest previous support at 6800 but most likely we go somewhere around 7000-7200 and there I want to place my long positions.
Currently I opened small short at tight stop loss.
Now we see some bounce but my previous target is still active. I want close my short between 7200-6800. Need to watch price action to find a good moment.
From a bullish perspective even if we break up I think there's too much overhead resistance for it to be a lasting bull move and any bull move will most likely be stopped between 7900 - 8000.
I wouldn't personally place any trades until this consolidation breaks in either direction to confirm where the trend is heading. It could definitely go bearish, I agree, but at the same time this is healthy bull flag like consolidation which is exactly what you want to see if you're a bull and hoping this move is the start of a new uptrend.
Overall I just think it's difficult to say which outcome is most likely right now. The chances of you getting that guess accurately will heavily increase with confirmation of either direction. Bull confirmation would be a break out from the high of the consolidation with big volume.
Just my 2 cents.
Was looking for a bearish entry but sadly I missed that shooting star on the hourly (formed when the bullish break out got heavily rejected) which would've been a very nice bearish entry signal. Nicely done if you got in with a short though :).
Imo you're forcing a channel that's not yet been confirmed. If the price goes down from here and bounces from your lower trendline than that would indeed be a confirmed channel. But right now, It's just a hypothetical one imo.