Having started the month and in turn the year with high volatility, it is time to look at Bitcoin on the long-term charts again. The current analysis is on the 1W time-frame and it is a comparison between the 2021 sequence and the fractal of mid 2019 - mid 2020.
** The RSI ** The 1W RSI of the two, if divided in legs, are virtually identical. Even though leg (5) in price terms made a Lower Low, that huge panic selling was due to the COVID global asset melt-down, a panic event that is unlikely to happen again.
** The Channel Up and the 0.5 Fib ** At the same time, BTC hit another key support line, the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up since that COVID bottom. As shown on the chart, every time the price traded within the Fib 1.0 and Fib 0.5 zone of the Channel, it was a buy opportunity. Last time BTC hit that 0.5 Fib was on the October 05 2020 1W candle. What followed was a +555% parabolic rally for a market top (and new All Time High) on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
If this is again a buy opportunity and we don't experience another COVID crash event, and assuming Bitcoin needs again around two Quarters for a new parabolic top, the Fib 2.0 Target could be placed within $150000 and $200000.
Do you think that's a new long-term buy opportunity and if so is this target zone realistic by Q2 2022? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
@JoyStarTR, What does longing cryptocurrencies have to do with shorting banks?
whosjfk
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@Tradersweekly, Look at the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The banks got greedy and caused it with their mortgage-backed securities (MBS.) As well as a vast web of derivatives linked to those MBS, collapsed in value. BTC was created after that in a decentralized open ledger format for all to see the transactions as bankers have shown they are not responsible.
notoriousdna
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@whosjfk, Banks will always exist because most people will never hold a job that allows them to be independent of them. Crypto will never change that , ... or will they lmao...nah i doubt