I rarely come out and say "short" or "long" but this is one of those rare cases. If there was ever a time to short Bitcoin, it's probably now. Do I mean short RIGHT NOW like today on high leverage? No. Is there still some room/chance for Bitcoin to make a little run up to 8k? Yes (although if that's going to happen it would have to happen SOON, like today or tomorrow). But please look closely at this chart and please think about it.
The left pane shows the S&P 500 Index. We all know Bitcoin has been strongly and directly correlated with the S&P 500 and it's not showing any signs of decoupling from that correlation. The S&P 500 is in a clear rising wedge on clear declining volume and we can also see that it just closed out a daily TD sequential 9 on a shooting star candle. The only time I take the TD sequential seriously is on 9s and especially on higher time frames. Taking this technical analysis into consideration with the economic situation, the S&P 500 really looks like it's about to capitulate.
The right pane shows the U.S. dollar weekly chart in relation to all the major moving averages. We can see it's in a very good spot -- above all major MAs. In fact it looks like it's about to rocket, and Bitcoin has historically has a strong inverse correlation with the US dollar. Furthermore we can fully expect the US dollar value to increase significantly when the stock market crashes. It's just logic: money comes out of stocks into the US dollar.
Finally -- in the middle pane we have the Bitcoin chart, which is the weekly chart in relation to all of the major moving averages. We can see it's an extremely bearish chart. There's just no other way to see it. We're retesting a very strong resistance ceiling, having made a V-shaped recovery ON DECLINING WEEKLY VOLUME and now you can see that red 10 simple moving average cutting down through all of the other higher moving averages, about to hit the price and slam it back down.
People - if there was ever time I hoped I was wrong about something it's this time, because it would mean that we are indeed not in store for a COVID-19-related economic downturn and stock market crash. But when you put all the pieces together, it's really hard to conclude anything else. And yes -- it's time to be short on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin WILL recover and ultimately make new highs - of that I'm certain. But based on all of the above I believe we are in for a few months of heavy red. And no -- the halving is not going to save us and I really feel right now for newbies and people with government-issued economic recovery checks getting sucked into that idea.
I think you are right,only oil is the locomotive of S&P.
Oil bounced on 20 year low,but it's gravity due low demand (covid-19)will bring oil prices even lower.(upcomming months)
Eventhough the Oilcartel and Huge oilmultinationals will keep trying to manipulate price with mainstream news.(production cuts)
I made a comparisson chart of Btc vs Major oil market futures.The daily/weekly shows a lot of correlation.
I also think no new money will float in crypto these days,the middle and lower class losing jobs and are in no position to buy "luxury" Btc.
The volumes in crypto are mostly leverage traders.Exchanges provide margin leverages 125x.For me that is also an indicator of longterm downtrend in investors of Crypto.
On top of that,unless there will be a cure for Covid-19,(i definately hope)most people will get infected upcomming years.Speaking to hospital care employees.Atm they just trying to slow down the rate of new infections to regulate the IC bed occupancy.
Be safe,your health and the health of your lovedones is nr 1!
Oil bounced on 20 year low,but it's gravity due low demand (covid-19)will bring oil prices even lower.(upcomming months)
Eventhough the Oilcartel and Huge oilmultinationals will keep trying to manipulate price with mainstream news.(production cuts)
I made a comparisson chart of Btc vs Major oil market futures.The daily/weekly shows a lot of correlation.
I also think no new money will float in crypto these days,the middle and lower class losing jobs and are in no position to buy "luxury" Btc.
The volumes in crypto are mostly leverage traders.Exchanges provide margin leverages 125x.For me that is also an indicator of longterm downtrend in investors of Crypto.
On top of that,unless there will be a cure for Covid-19,(i definately hope)most people will get infected upcomming years.Speaking to hospital care employees.Atm they just trying to slow down the rate of new infections to regulate the IC bed occupancy.
Be safe,your health and the health of your lovedones is nr 1!
tradingview.com/chart/gZNh233C/