1. Smart money action:
The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). For the short-term, institutional traders on is finding support at 11k.
2. Miner action:
Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered , and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a long-term sign.
3. Market Sentiment (on-chain):
Overall on-chain market sentiment is still overstretched, and a sentiment calm down is needed. For the seller group sentiment, this group is still selling in profit and remains in a bull trend. Buying the dip is simple in this type of market: wait for the price approaching seller group purchasing price à decrease in supply à increase price.
4. Margin Market Actions:
Not much confirmed obvious bias yet.
5. SPX correlation
I don’t think SPX is going to experience a major correction anytime soon. Q2 numbers didn’t cause much of a market impact . What this means is the current price level already has the negative COVID impact priced in. The market runs on expectations rather than actuals.
Last week, the 9.6-9.9k gap seems likely to be filled. Right now, it’s looking less likely as we are developing a short-term flat corrective wave. This type of wave generally preps us for an explosive move in the same market direction (up in the current case).
(90% of historical BTC gaps get filled sooner or later - generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed).
now showing extremely signs. (2D, 1D)
Be careful shorting with divergences. Once is extremely , divergences can keep on developing with price making new highs. In this type of situation, the key is waiting for the MA failure (instead of divergence) for a trend reversal identification.
4hr support at 40 – would be good dip buying opportunities.
Key support at 10.5k – 11k.
3. Wave developments:
We are likely in wave ii of III. Details see the chart above.
Are you a bull or a bear? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
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Retracement yes. Steep retracement (below 9k) no.