BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Key Fundamentals:
1. Smart money action:
The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). For the short-term, institutional traders on CME is finding support at 11k.

2. Miner action:
Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered , and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign.

3. Market Sentiment (on-chain):
Overall on-chain market sentiment is still overstretched, and a sentiment calm down is needed. For the seller group sentiment, this group is still selling in profit and remains in a bull trend. Buying the dip is simple in this type of market: wait for the price approaching seller group purchasing price à decrease in supply à increase price.

4. Margin Market Actions:
Not much confirmed obvious bias yet.

5. SPX correlation
I don’t think SPX is going to experience a major correction anytime soon. Q2 numbers didn’t cause much of a market impact . What this means is the current price level already has the negative COVID impact priced in. The market runs on expectations rather than actuals.

6. CME Gap
Last week, the 9.6-9.9k gap seems likely to be filled. Right now, it’s looking less likely as we are developing a short-term flat corrective wave. This type of wave generally preps us for an explosive move in the same market direction (up in the current case).
(90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later - generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed).

Key Technicals:
1. RSI:
RSI now showing extremely bullish signs. (2D, 1D)
Be careful shorting with RSI bearish divergences. Once RSI is extremely bullish , bearish divergences can keep on developing with price making new highs. In this type of situation, the key is waiting for the MA failure (instead of bearish divergence) for a trend reversal identification.
4hr RSI support at 40 – would be good dip buying opportunities.

2. Support/Resistance:
Key support at 10.5k – 11k.

3. Wave developments:
We are likely in wave ii of III. Details see the chart above.

Are you a bull or a bear? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!

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Comment: Weekly overview updated.
Retracement yes. Steep retracement (below 9k) no.
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