hi guys, i am not a financial adviser, not giving financial advise, trade at your own risk!
today a bit of a dramatic title so make sure you see what i think i see.
pump and dump is destroying the markets. the pattern is like this always:
1. big price spikes upwards, hundred, hundreds, even thousand or more dollars in the range of minutes sometimes! which person with a same mind suddenly buys an assets for 6% higher than the market price? 2. a few hours, days, weeks or months of the price staying a bit below the initial pump level - profit takes got trigger - but finally it dumps, suddenly the price plummets hundred, hundreds or thousand or more dollars.
this has the following negative effects, i call it the devilcs circle:
1. after the big dump, many liqudations got triggered, overly leveraged traders. volume is low, price going up and down, no clear direction. 2. people who took a big risk with high leverage, we know up to 100x leverage is easily possible! and lost their savings exit the market -> even more low volume 3. long time believers get shaken because the price is making NO LONGTERM moves! pump it up for some time, dump it down, back to start again. 4. the lack of longtime price increases draw make crypto markets look boring, flat to outsiders. they will not jump in, even less volume.
We will see in the next year a sharp decrease in all crypto prices and volume if the pump & dump (pump it up e.g. 6% in one day, few days, weeks months pump it down 6% again) continues like that, BTC/USD has the most of this action going on. I am afraid, the "big guys" will pump and dump until they cannot, until volume and price is destroyed.
Comment
⋅
Like I predicted the price and volume will drop, BTC/USD down today 11%, big dump spike happened and triggered many leverages orders!
Comment
⋅
Like I predicted more drop, now we will hit support and go up again or dump until feb 2019 level? I don't know, bitcoin is confusing
nice chart and comment! it'a pretty naive to think that we are in any bull cycle. even though history repeats (sometimes), this movement would be too predictable.
good point also with the liquidations & volume.
See you in one year :-)
Hi, thanks for your interest in the matter, I agree with you.
One year is a long time, many things can change includic the global economic situation so I rather do not make any predictions for such a long time range.
But it would not surprise me if bitcoin will not make big moves in a year because of ongoing pump up, pump down, repeat pattersn. But we saw it multiple times: bitcoin is hard to predict so I better not try to.
PurpleCrypto
⋅
"Dumps" will always occur after a parabolic rise. Whether algorithmic or natural, it is a corrective position. Therefore, a "correction" will most definitely occur following the most recent parabolic rise.
pstavs
⋅
The problem with unregulated markets is exactly this. Bitcoin is traded out in the wild west where huge spikes and dumps are chalked off to whales, but in reality they can just as easily be algorithmic. Many exchanges have bots that operate solely to manipulate trades.
please be aware, if its's bots they are used and controlled by humans. humans start, stop and adjust the bots.
what we see in crypto markets is simply huge spikes up and down, like pump & dump. in the end the price does NOT rise in the long term -> lower volume, less traders, people got liqiduiated by the spikes.
endgame: price and volume of crypto markets will die even more.
i know i repeat myself but that's a good way to everyone know what they should know :-)
pstavs
⋅
@DappStatCentral_ML, yes, mostly that is true, but as a programmer and trader I can tell you that isn't the whole picture. Many AI's exist now, and soon many of them will be trading autonomously. I can also tell you that some massive players in regulated markets (not crypto) already use AI's that are outperforming some of the best human traders for several years already.
DappStatCentral_ML
⋅
@pstavs, hello thanks I appreciate that you share the insights you have with us and i am share trading algos can work well and faster,better than humans but still they are programmed/controlled by humans.
The thing that is strange is in regulated markets e.g. stocks market you don't have these strange "minute spikes" where in a few minutes up to 1h the price spikes up or down up to 6%...
So that's why I say crypot attracts pump and dump and this will be the END of long lasting price increase & high volume of crypot, we will watch volume and price die slowly I guess - because pump & dump scares people away from trading!
good point also with the liquidations & volume.
See you in one year :-)