Thanks for checking out my first TradingView post. I have many years experience in TA and welcome any comments or upvotes!
Getting right into it, I will continue to have my fiat reserves on the sidelines until this cycle completes itself, which should occur very soon.
As you can see on my charting, bearish trend lines have been respected and no upper limit breaches have succeeded. In a downturn like this, I like to look toward very simple technicals to provide me insight: Trend lines, MA, and RSI.
Our upper resistance line hasn't been tested in over two weeks as shorting by the bears has become rampant. Looking back since our initial bear market kicked in, we can see these upper limits holding incredibly well - as delineated by the extremely small wicks at the two latter tops. Looking at our bottom support trend line, we can see buying volume pick up when the price comes to test it. We are nearing the end of the wedges here in the next few weeks and we are very likely to see a break upward.
Now, our 50 and 200 day MA's are telling a conflicting story to what I've just stated. A Death Cross has been identified as extremely close to occurring - roughly $20-30 differential in the Moving Averages as we speak. As everyone knows, a Death Cross usually means a downward trend... but not in Bitcoin's past!! Looking at history, only three Death Crosses have ever occurred in this market and two have proven profitable! The first time was April 9th, 2014. This was after a very large pump similar to what we have just seen in the market in December/January. This Death Cross actually caused a 31.6% INCREASE in BTC's price point immediately after happening shown below. The price then CONTINUED surging after a small correction too. Please try and convince me that the charting of the surge from 2014 doesn't look identical to what we are seeing now... It can't get anymore textbook than this.
The next death cross happened just five months after - September 4th, 2014. This time, the market saw major downturn, but by no means did it break its original trend line folks! People are worrying so much about the current bear cycle but LOOK with your own eyes at this support line in 2014 and how it held EXTREMELY strong even with two death crosses that year. Do not panic sell if you're invested heavily! There are two very large trend lines that BTC followed before the December 2017 surge. One has us supported at $6,500 and one much lower at $4500 if $6500 is successful.
Many people are speculating Bitcoin to see sub $6,000... I don't believe that to be the case and here's why.
Most analysts will look to the RSI almost every time before making a long position. It's so crucial for me to see RSI as oversold before I enter any position personally. Looking at the RSI on BTC as I type, we are hovering around 30.7. For those who are unaware of RSI technicals, a rating of 30 is deemed oversold and look at where we're sitting now. I am expecting the RSI to reach 25-30 at the minimum before the bulls are unleashed.
You MUST look at the bigger picture of the market as well while you study TA. A hybrid approach ensures you don't miss out on market influences TA simply cannot predict. VC's investing hundreds of millions of dollars (400M deal between Circle & Poloniex) are no coincidence. When the '94 '95 market tanked, Venture Capital funding into tech industry was SOARING... Just like now in crypto... and we all know what happened in the tech industry in the years following. (If you don't, '95-2000, the tech industry saw $5 Trillion...)
If a bounce happens around $6450-6550, we could see 20-30% gains in the short term. May is setup to see large institutional money enter.
Great post. Impressive content compared to most of the clowns on here posting about crypto
larsontw16
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@ColonelCrypto, Cheery Colonel! Not out of the woods yet but the bounce held and I'm glad to see some bull movement here. Looking to do some TA in a few hours for a new post to outline my close position as I think a reversal is setting up here soon.
Bombita
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larsontw16
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@Bombita, I've seen this posted about on here the past few days now and see that as well. Note I mention short-term in my analysis - I don't believe this to be a bull reversal yet.
Lou100B
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Nice Larson.....
larsontw16
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@Lou100B, Thanks Lou! Seemed we were nearly spot on with our reversal zone.
davidvillarreal.sa
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Daily RSI in oversold zones 25-30 has not failed yet to give us some impulse up, let's hope we get that!
larsontw16
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@DavidVillarreal.sa, Entirely agree. I believe 26-27 RSI should line up well with my support line in regards to timing. Ton of long positions were just liquidated now - last time that happened they reentered at new levels and we had some movement up. Let's see!
davidvillarreal.sa
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@larsontw16, It actually lines perfectly with your support line, we also have the double bottom possibility and support by the 50EMA un de 1W chart, I guess it wont be a full reversal but a nice bounce for sure
larsontw16
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@DavidVillarreal.sa, Seems we hit this one on the head didn’t we! Bounce at $6,600 ($50 higher than my upper prediction of $6,550)
The bounce wasn’t as strong as I had expected so we likely won’t see 20% but not a bad call.