Here we take a look at BTC heikin-ashi candles on a 3 day timescale, the 1 day simple moving average with a length of 300, and a fibonacci channel, all on the logarithmic price scale.
Of note, is the candle behavior in relationship to the 300 SMA, before and after BTC reaches its' peak during the 2013 and 2017 bullruns, and how that behavior can be analyzed and applied to the current bull run.
We see that leading up to the 2013 peak, as well as the 2017 peak, BTC stays above the 300 SMA as the price rises. We also see that after both of the 2013 and 2017 peaks, BTC drops below the 300 SMA :
Now, if we look at our current price action, we can see that BTC has dropped and hit the 300 SMA, and has managed to stay above it :
If we look at April 2013, we see BTC came close to hitting the 300 SMA after a significant peak, but it continued to rise into late 2013, when it finally concluded its' bullrun, after which, BTC did drop below the 300 SMA :
One may conclude that if BTC drops below the 300 SMA during this current bull run, we can assume that the current bull run is over, and it may be some time before the we see another bull run. If BTC manages to stay above the 300 SMA, we can assume that the current bull run will continue on (like it did in summer 2013) most likely until the end of the year, and reach another new ATH.
Thanks for checking out the chart! Feel free to like and/or comment... it is much appreciated.
// Durbtrade
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zoom out
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zoom in... 30 second candles :
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6/8/21 02.07.54 30sec
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6/8/21 13.37.57 30sec - BTC dropped below the 300 SMA for 1 hour and 55 minutes on the 30sec timescale before rising back above it. It was $903.81 below the SMA at it's lowest point. There wasn't much of a vertical bounce afterwards. Now BTC is just above.
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6/8/21 3day - On the 3day timescale (same as the main chart), the wick on the bottom of the current 3day heikin-ashi candle has definitely dipped below the 300 SMA, with less than 6 hours remaining until candle close. Watching carefully.
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6/18/21 19:47:57 30min - Still above the 1day 300sma, and the 1.272 fib is still switching its' roll, back and forth, between resistance and support.
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The most recent 3day candle just closed... closing right above the 1day 300sma, with a substantial bottom wick below the sma. Price was below the sma for close to 1 day and 18 hours. Watch carefully.
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7/3/21 01:10:43 30min - Currently just below the 1day 300sma. So far, it seems that since the deepest dip, we have had higher highs and higher lows. 37.7k incoming?
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9/3/21
09:56am - 1hr update :
10:00am - 3day update :
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9/28/21
11:56am - 3Day :
12:01pm - 2hr :
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10/8/21
7:26pm - 3Day :
Beautiful! BTC finds support on the 1.272 fib AND the 1Day 300SMA!
The 1 day 300-SMA does not seem to be a good indicator to indicate the start of a bear-market, the temporal delay is too long. It seems effective to use to identify the end of the bear-market.
Durbtrade
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@FrixusMixus, care to elaborate further? what about the 3day 100sma, or the 6day 50sma? because those are all the same line. I don't understand.